A majority of Australians 60% (up 5% since June 2014) say the Roy Morgan March unemployment estimate (10.8%) is ‘closer to reality’ than the far lower official ABS March unemployment number (6.1%)*; 29% (down 3%) believe the ABS number while a further 11% (down 2%) can’t say according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights, April 14-16, 2015.
Analysis by Gender & Age
Analysis by gender shows men 61% (up a large 13%) are slightly more likely than women 59% (down 3%) to say the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’. In addition, more men 31% (down 9%) than women 27% (up 2%) also say the ABS unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’ while only 8% (down 4%) of men say they ‘can’t say’ compared to 14% (up 1%).
Analysis by age groups shows people of all ages are more likely to believe the Roy Morgan figures - 62% of 14-24yr olds believe the Roy Morgan unemployment figure is ‘closer to reality’, along with 59% of 25-34yr olds, 58% of 35-49yr olds, 63% of 50-64yr olds and 57% of 65+yr olds.
Analysis by Voting Intention
Analysis by voting intention shows a clear difference between supporters of the two major parties – ALP supporters are far more likely to say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ than L-NP supporters, although majorities of supporters of both major parties indicate they are more likely to believe the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate than the ABS unemployment estimate.
Now 68% (up 6%) of ALP supporters say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 23% (down 5%) that believe the ABS unemployment estimate while 52% (up 13%) of L-NP supporters say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 37% (down 9%) that say the ABS unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’. In addition Greens supporters also clearly believe the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate 60% (down 11%) ahead of the ABS estimate 22% (up 2%).
Gary Morgan says:
“An increasing majority of Australians 60% (up 5% since June 2014) say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate (10.8% in March - 1,368,000) is ‘closer to reality’ compared to 29% (down 3%) that say the official ABS unemployment estimate (6.1% in March) is ‘closer to reality’. The ABS does not release a monthly estimate of under-employed (Roy Morgan estimates there are 976,000 under-employed in Australia - 7.7%)
“This is the third time Roy Morgan has asked this question, and the overall results have shown a majority each time say the Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is ‘closer to reality’ – 58% of Australians in June 2013, 55% in June 2014 and 60% this week.
"It is clear the Abbott Government needs to direct the ABS to more accurately measure Australian unemployment and measure and release under-employment on a monthly basis - which is now available in the USA.
“At next month’s Federal Budget, the Abbott Government must implement changes to Australia’s industrial relations laws that will encourage employers to hire from the vast pool (over 2.3 million Australians in March) of unemployed and under-employed Australians. Failure to deal with Australia’s real level of unemployment before next year’s Federal Election will ‘doom’ the Abbott Government to being a ‘one-term disappointment’ like the Coalition Governments in Victorian and Queensland.”
This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights, April 14-16, 2014, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 598 Australians aged 14+.
