NEWS WRAP

The US signs peace deal with Taliban

• A peace deal was signed between the United States and the Taliban, signalling the beginning of the end to a 18-year war in Afghanistan. Under the agreement, the US has committed to withdrawing its armed forces and allies within 14 months, provided the Taliban takes part in comprehensive intra-Afghan peace talks and works with the government to combat terrorism. In a phone conversation with senior Taliban official Abdul Ghani Baradar, President Trump said the "withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan now is in the interest of everyone". READ MORE HERE
   

• The United States has reported its ninth coronavirus death as Washington state confirms new fatalities. Vice President Mike Pence announced the Center for Disease Control was lifting all restrictions on testing for COVID-19. Earlier in the week, the vice president attempted to address concerns, insisting the risk of Americans contracting the virus "remains low". There have been more than 115 cases of the virus in more than a dozen states. READ MORE HERE
   

• The White House has pulled the nomination of a Pentagon official who was critical of withholding US military aid from Ukraine. A statement released by the White House said it was withdrawing the nomination of Elaine McCusker for Pentagon comptroller but did not provide a reason for the decision. In a series of emails from 2019 recently made public, Elaine McCusker voiced concerns to budget officials about the delay in deploying aid. Democratic Senator Jack Reed says McCusker is "paying the price for trying to ensure that the administration followed the law". READ MORE HERE
   

• The Supreme Court will again decide whether the Affordable Care Act, President Barack Obama's signature healthcare legislation, is constitutional. An appeal brought before the Supreme Court by Democratic-led states will seek to affirm the constitutionality of Obamacare after the US Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit in 2019 ruled the law's individual mandate provision unconstitutional. The justices have not indicated when they will hear the case, but it will likely begin is term in the fall. A decision is expected to land in the spring or summer of 2021. READ MORE HERE
   

ANALYSIS

What's at stake on Super Tuesday? 

Experts from the United States Studies Centre
 

• Professor Simon Jackman, CEO
  "Bernie Sander is California Dreaming. California has over 400 delegates up for grabs, far more than any other state. A big Sanders win there could deal a blow to Biden. Polls have had Sanders well in front in California, a result of his campaign's lasers on Latinos and independents. Although it looks less-likely now, the dream scenario for Sanders would have been that Biden and Bloomberg keep one another below the 15 per cent threshold to be eligible for delegates, and Sanders takes all of California's delegates. Are enough moderates coming back to Biden? And spare a thought for early voters casting “wasted” ballots for Buttigieg or Klobuchar."
   
• Matilda Steward, Research Associate
  "Foreign policy usually takes a back-seat role in US presidential elections, but the choice on Super Tuesday between centrist candidates Biden and Bloomberg or the progressive Sanders establishes a contest between two competing visions for US foreign policy: a return to the pre-Trump status quo or a reconceptualisation of America’s role in international affairs." 
   
• Dr David Smith, Senior Lecturer
  "Super Tuesday is usually a clarifying moment, but the clarifying moment of this race actually happened four days earlier in South Carolina, which established this as a race between Sanders and Biden though it has the potential to muddy the water again. Bloomberg’s half-billion-dollar campaign probably won’t get him the nomination, but it could make Biden’s path a lot harder."
   
• Dr Gorana Grgic, Lecturer
  "Super Tuesday will be a true test of whether the eventful 72 hours between South Carolina and Super Tuesday were enough for Joe Biden to significantly slow down Bernie Sanders’ momentum. Other things to watch: Mike Bloomberg’s performance and consequently viability for the rest of the race, and how many delegates will Elizabeth Warren be able to pick up in a narrowed field."
   
• Kim Hoggard, Non-Resident Fellow
  “The Democrat contest has reached a fever pitch. Super Tuesday proves pivotal to determining which policy direction the party will go. The withdrawal of Buttigieg and Klobuchar reflects the Democratic National Committee strategy of throwing weight behind Biden’s recent South Carolina win. Biden is now hoping he can attract the moderate votes needed to blunt Sanders lead, especially in the big states of California and Texas.”
   
• Bruce Wolpe, Non-Resident Senior Fellow
  "Super Tuesday is a test of the breadth of Sanders’ army, of whether Biden’s post-South Carolina surge has deep traction, and of Bloomberg’s business model for capturing the nomination. When the votes are tallied, Biden’s future depends on whether he is within striking distance of Sanders and well clear of Bloomberg."
   
• Dr Brendon O'Connor, Associate Professor
  "On Super Tuesday, a third of all pledged delegates are up for grabs. Under the fairly complicated party rules, a Democratic candidate will need 1,991 pledged delegates to secure the nomination at the July Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. If a candidate fails to get half of the overall pledged delegates, then things get really complicated and we will all hear a lot about “super delegates” and a “brokered convention.”

Uncertain future: US foreign policy, regional powers and Indo-Pacific competition

What is the likely trajectory of US and Chinese foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific? How are domestic debates about America’s role in the world affecting US strategy in the lead up to the 2020 election? How are other Indo-Pacific nations reacting to their shifting strategic environment? And what does all of this mean for Australia’s own strategic future?

To explore these issues, please join us for a public panel discussion with the following experts:

• Bruce Jentleson, Professor of Public Policy and Political Science at Duke University, leading scholar of American foreign policy and former official in a number US administrations
• Nadège Rolland, Senior Fellow for Political and Security Affairs at the National Bureau of Asian Research and author of China’s Vision for a New World Order
• Ashley J. Tellis, Research Director of the Strategic Asia Program at the National Bureau of Asian Research and Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• Ashley Townshend, Director of Foreign Policy and Defence at the United States Studies Centre

Refreshments will be available during the reception after the event.

DATE & TIME
5 March 2020
6.00pm–8.00pm

LOCATION
University of Sydney CBD Campus
Level 17, 133 Castlereagh St, Sydney

COST
$15 General Admission
 

VIDEO

Buttigieg endorses Biden after backing out of the Democratic race

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#BattleOfTheProgressives