15 MAY

Don Jr. agrees to appear before Senate panel

Donald Trump Jr. has agreed to appear before the US Senate Intelligence Committee, ending for the time being a heated fight within the GOP over the Republican-led panel's Russia investigation. 

His decision to be interviewed comes after a backlash from President Trump and top Republicans over Senate Intelligence Chairman Richard Burr's (R-NC) decision to subpoena him, despite completion of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report. The terms of the compromise include an appearance by Trump Jr. in mid-June, with questions limited to a half-dozen topics and the time limited to no longer than four hours, The New York Times reports.

Senate investigators are particularly interested in asking Trump Jr. about an infamous June 2016 meeting at Trump Tower in Manhattan with a Russian lawyer who promised “dirt” on Hillary Clinton, as well as about his knowledge of a proposed Trump Tower project in Moscow. 

NEWS WRAP

Why a US-China deal won’t end the trade war

• While both sides have a strong incentive to conclude an agreement in the ongoing US-China trade war, financial markets should not underestimate the potential for the talks to end in failure, warns USSC Trade and Investment Program Director Stephen Kirchner. In his latest column for The Australian Financial Review, he suggests that even if a deal is struck, the threat of higher US tariffs will be an ongoing issue. READ MORE HERE.
   

• Joe Hockey will depart as Australian ambassador to the United States at the end of the year rather than seek an extension to his term, The Australian reports. Foreign Minister Marise Payne would not comment on Hockey’s return to Australia, but the report suggests he made the decision himself amid growing speculation that a Labor government would not extend his four-year term for a year to allow him to stay until the US election in 2020. READ MORE HERE.
   
• What would Senator Penny Wong look like as foreign minister should Labor win the Australian election on Saturday? Non-Resident Senior Fellow John Lee spoke to CNN about the future of Australia's relationships with China and the United States in the case of a change of government. READ MORE HERE. 
   
• Beijing’s geopolitical moves continue to obfuscate its larger designs, surprise observers, and render the United States and its allies reactive, suggests Senior Fellow Charles Edel. In his latest contribution to War on the Rocks, Edel says the prospect of a Chinese naval base in Cambodia offers a case in point. READ MORE HERE.
   
• President Trump is opposed to the passage of the Equality Act, a proposed bill that would add sexual orientation and gender identity to federal civil rights law to prevent discrimination against LGBT people. In a statement shared with NBC News, a senior administration official said, “the Trump administration absolutely opposes discrimination of any kind and supports the equal treatment of all. However, this bill in its current form is filled with poison pills that threaten to undermine parental and conscience rights." READ MORE HERE.

I think what we're seeing is the self-correcting genius of the American Republic. We had too much conventional wisdom. It was operating to the detriment of large segments of the US society. They wanted a disrupter.

US Ambassador to Australia Arthur B. Culvahouse Jr on President Trump
(ABC News Breakfast)
14 May 2019

ANALYSIS

The end of Chimerica

John Lee
Non-Resident Senior Fellow

On 4 October 2018, US Vice President Mike Pence delivered a speech at the Hudson Institute think tank in Washington DC. In unusually pointed remarks, Pence laid out a comprehensive list of complaints about Chinese behaviour. According to the Vice President, ‘Beijing is employing a whole-of-government approach, using political, economic and military tools, as well as propaganda, to advance its influence’ at the expense of the US and international order.

The charge sheet was extensive. While previous administrations gave ‘Beijing open access to [the American] economy and brought China into the World Trade Organization’ (WTO) in the hope that political freedom and economic liberalisation would advance, that ‘hope has gone unfulfilled… and Deng Xiaoping’s famous policy [of reform and opening] now rings hollow'.

In addition to directly challenging America strategically and undermining the American role in upholding the international rules-based order that’s been cobbled together since the end of World War II, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ‘has also used an arsenal of policies inconsistent with free and fair trade… to build Beijing’s manufacturing base, at the expense of competitors — especially America’. This includes tariffs, quotas, currency manipulation, forced technology transfer, intellectual property (IP) theft and industrial subsidies — the extent of which has been well documented — occurring at a scale unmatched by any postwar economy and constitutes a violation of WTO and other treaties. Such ‘wholesale theft of American technology’ is especially grievous, as it’s being used by Beijing, according to Pence, to turn ‘plowshares into swords on a massive scale’.

Moreover, China is misusing its economic size and weight in the form of ‘debt diplomacy’ to extend ill-gotten leverage over smaller countries and to ‘exert influence and interfere in the domestic policy and politics of [the United States]’. In a scathing assessment, Pence argued that ‘previous administrations all but ignored China’s actions — and in many cases, they abetted them’. Then he offered the main point of the speech, which was to declare: ‘But those days are over.’

To be sure, the individual complaints made against China weren’t new. More broadly, the George W Bush administration initially characterised China as a rising challenger and ‘strategic competitor’ before taking the softer line of urging Beijing to become a ‘responsible stakeholder’ in the international system under American leadership. Barack Obama’s ‘pivot’ to Asia recognised China as a rival, and concerns about Chinese trade practices and IP theft preceded the Donald Trump administration.

Even so, no senior member of any administration has ever delivered such blunt remarks focused so exclusively on China’s wrongdoings and its unique and unprecedented challenge to American interests and international order. The speech went further than any other in naming China as a comprehensive competitor and rival prepared to integrate military, economic, technological and political weapons to undermine American strength, prosperity, resilience and capabilities. Nor were Pence’s remarks the isolated words of a Vice President letting off steam. The tone and content of Pence’s speech are consistent with the 2017 National Security Strategy and 2018 National Defense Strategy released by the administration. Those two documents represent the considered view of the agencies and departments responsible for American foreign, security and intelligence assessments and policy. In short, Pence’s speech was merely the sharpest arrow in the American quiver.

Read John Lee's full report 'The end of Chimerica: The passing of global economic consensus and the rise of US–China strategic technological competition' here.

DIARY

The week ahead

• Wednesday, 15 May: The leaders of New Zealand and France will hold a summit in Paris about online extremism. 
   

• Thursday, 16 May: President Trump is scheduled to travel to New York for a political fundraiser.
   

• Saturday, 18 May: Australian federal election.

EVENT

Reagan: 'Making America great' the first time

VIDEO

 Donald Trump praises Hungary's Viktor Orban on immigration

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#Tariffs

Manage your email preferences  |  Forward this email to a friend

United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006

​www.ussc.edu.au  |  us-studies@sydney.edu.au