21 OCTOBER

Mulvaney mulls poll predictions

Former White House Chief of staff Mick Mulvaney took a break from the campaign trail in Pennsylvania today to catch up with United States Studies Centre (USSC) Distinguished Ambassadorial Fellow Joe Hockey in our latest Election Watch webinar. Mulvaney predicted we’d see the same Donald Trump in the final presidential debate for the same reason Paul Manafort pushed back on Republicans wanting to temper Trump’s style in 2016 by saying, “How many of you just won a Republican primary for president. Nobody? Nobody? Okay, the president is going to do it his way.” While he shared why he still thinks Trump will perform better than polling shows, he revealed that he believes the approach to China will be the same under either administration because scepticism toward China has become a bi-partisan issue. Regardless the election outcome, he underscored the strategic importance of the alliance between the United States and Australia.

In one of the few examples where 2020 has been less fractious than previous years, the Senate hearings for Supreme Court Nominee Amy Coney Barrett could not be more distinct from the hearings for Justice Kavanaugh two years ago. Perhaps the numbers force Senate Democrats to chose between focusing on the election or the nomination – the current Senate split is 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two Independents – two fewer Democrats than during the Kavanaugh hearings. The only political tool at the Democrat’s disposal is a filibuster to delay the vote, but this also presents a double-edged sword – focus public attention on the election, the Supreme Court battle or risk losing both. With only two weeks to election day, a final debate to navigate, a return to rallies and a country in the throes of a health crisis, both parties have to make hard choices and hope their best efforts are enough. Even if successful, time alone will tell if victory is worth the risk.

VIDEO

The future of US defence strategy
in the Indo-Pacific

Did you miss our recent webinar The future of US defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific? The USSC was honoured to host Michéle Flournoy, former US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in a special event discussing the evolution defence priorities and trade-offs with Ashley Townshend, the Centre's Director of Foreign Policy and Defence. Watch the full discussion HERE.

Catch this and other recent webinars on the USSC YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

Debate, uninterrupted

Moot point or mute point? | In response to the widespread outcry that the first debate was unintelligible due to candidates talking over each other, the Commission on Presidential Debates approved a new rule where a candidates will have their microphones muted during their opponent’s designated speaking time. The Trump campaign has already pushed back calling the change “very unfair”. READ MORE HERE
Fauci fallout | As Mick Mulvaney discussed with Joe Hockey in today’s webinar, Trump is spending more time attacking Anthony Fauci than Joe Biden or his policies, to the dismay of Republicans. Recent USSC polling showed 67 per cent of Americans trust Fauci a little or a lot compared to 41 per cent for Donald Trump. READ MORE HERE
Hunting for an October surprise | Even with a front page story on the New York Post, purported evidence taken from Hunter Biden’s hard drive has failed to make an impact as an “October surprise.” Serious questions swirled before publication with the main author reportedly wanting to remove his name from the story. READ MORE HERE
Trump’s Beijing bank account | While Senate Republicans circulated a report asserting Hunter Biden opened a Chinese bank account, the New York Times revealed that analysis they received of Trump’s tax returns show him holding bank accounts in only three foreign countries: the UK, Ireland and China. READ MORE HERE

We don’t have a national election, we have 50 state elections on election night. So national polls aren’t worth anything.

Mick Mulvaney
United States Studies Centre webinar
21 October 2020

Image: Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND

ANALYSIS

Trump has changed America by making everything about politics, and politics all about himself

Dr David Smith
Senior Lecturer in American Politics and Foreign Policy

On October 14, Donald Trump held a rally attended by several thousand in Iowa, despite White House guidelines that gatherings in the state should be limited to 25. Trump visited Iowa numerous times in 2016, a political outsider promising he would “give working people a voice for the first time in a very, very long time”. He won the state by nine points.

In 2020, polls show Trump and Joe Biden virtually tied in Iowa. And, after four years as president, Trump’s rhetoric has changed significantly. Last week, one of Trump’s first applause lines was: “Did you hear Bruce Ohr is finally out of the Department of Justice?”

Ohr was a Justice Department official who promoted a salacious opposition research dossier that the FBI misused to obtain a surveillance warrant on a former Trump campaign operative, Carter Page. Most people wouldn’t know who he is unless they have been closely following Trump’s crusade to “investigate” the origins of the Mueller investigation into allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

Trump’s language in rallies, interviews and even debates is increasingly hard to follow for those who aren’t already initiated into his world of conspiracies, grievances and half-digested news items. He recently suggested he watches up to eight hours of Fox News a day. Much of what he says and tweets involves vague but dense allusions to his favourite shows.

Four years ago, Trump appealed to people who aren’t usually interested in politics. Now, he appeals to people obsessed with politics.

BY THE NUMBERS

Trust in President or Prime Minister

Do not trust at all: Australia 11% | US 48%

In a recent poll the USSC asked respondents to rate how much they trusted their president/prime minister. There were nine percentage points between how many respondents trust their leader a lot (30 per cent for Prime Minister Morrison and 21 per cent for President Trump).

The most notable discrepancy between the countries was how many respondents selected “Do not trust at all” with more than four times as many Americans indicating a strong distrust of Trump as Australians chose for Morrison. 3 November will be the real test of whether this matters enough to change election results.

VIRTUAL EVENT

Media and the 2020 election

No US president has been more media focused than President Trump. And likewise, no US president has consistently dominated global news cycles like President Trump. While most Australians watch the US presidential election from afar, intrepid Aussie journalists have spent the year in the epicentre of American political drama: Washington. How does the 2020 election compare to others? How do the candidates campaign and how do you cover them during a pandemic? What aspects of campaign journalism have changed forever?

To discuss these issues, please join us for a webinar event with three Australian correspondents in Washington: Cameron Stewart of The Australian, Jacob Greber of The Australian Financial Review, and Matthew Knott of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age in a conversation with former ABC Washington Bureau Chief, Zoe Daniel.

WHEN:
Tuesday, 27 October, 10am AEDT (Sydney) 7am AWST (Perth)
Monday, 26 October, 7pm EDT (Washington, DC)

COST:
Free, but registration is essential

REGISTER NOW