14 OCTOBER

Judgement days

Consistent with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s promise that President Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court vacancy, “will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate,” day two of confirmation hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett has concluded. Key takeaways from her hearings so far include:

Deciding a disputed election – when pressed on whether Barrett would recuse herself if cases related to the election outcome go to the Supreme Court, she said she would, “apply the factors that other justices have,” in determining whether she would recuse herself or not.
Abortion – Barrett declined to provide any indication of her views on abortion saying only that she will, “decide cases as they come,” but this is a key issue and both Republicans and Democrats want to see where she stands.
Obamacare – in 2017, Barrett critiqued Justice Roberts in upholding the Affordable Care Act, but said she has made no commitments to dismantle it should the opportunity arise.

While Trump has returned to campaigning as normal, claiming he’s “immune” to COVID-19, his opposition is pushing back on this. The second presidential debate was scheduled for this week, but was cancelled because the Trump campaign did not agree to a virtual debate.

Through the tumultuous final weeks of the 2020 election, the United States Studies Centre (USSC) will continue to bring you salient, timely analysis of the latest developments. Three unmissable upcoming webinars include conversations with Co-founder and CEO of Center for a New American Security Mich è le Flournoy, Foreign Editor for The Australian Greg Sheridan and former White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney. Visit our Election Watch hub for all the latest events and analysis on the race to the White House.

VIRTUAL EVENT

President Trump's former Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney in conversation with Joe Hockey

With the US election less than three weeks away, a lot of commentaries are focused on the “horse race”: who is ahead, who is behind? But regardless of the outcome in November, will Americans unite behind the next administration? What will be the policy priorities of either a Biden administration or a Trump administration’s second term? Will there be room for foreign policy and an Indo-Pacific strategy as America grapples with the health and economic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic? Australia has managed its US relationship exceedingly well under President Trump but what risks and opportunities lie ahead for Australia and its national interests under either election outcome?

Please join the United States Studies Centre for a conversation between President Trump's former Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney and former Australian Ambassador to the United States The Hon Joe Hockey.

WHEN:
Wednesday, 21 October, 10am AEDT (Sydney) 7am AWST (Perth)
Tuesday, 20 October, 7pm EDT (Washington, DC)

COST:
Free, but registration is essential

REGISTER NOW

VIRTUAL EVENT

The future of US defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific

America's strategic position in the Indo-Pacific is under unprecedented strain. Whoever wins the US presidential election will have to address this reality in the context of growing geopolitical and economic disruption wrought by COVID-19.

How might a Biden administration address these challenges? Where will US defence priorities and trade-offs evolve and what could this mean for the US-Australia alliance and for other American allies in the region?

We are honoured to host Michèle Flournoy, former Obama Administration Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, to discuss these issues with Ashley Townshend, Director of Foreign Policy and Defence at the United States Studies Centre.

WHEN:
Friday, 16 October, 10am AEDT (Sydney) 7am AWST (Perth)
Thursday, 15 October, 7pm EDT (Washington, DC)

COST:
Free, but registration is essential

REGISTER NOW

VIDEO

Empowering American allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific

Did you miss our recent webinar Empowering American allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific? The USSC was excited to host author Abe Denmark for the Australian launch of his latest book U.S. Strategy in the Asian Century: Empowering Allies and Partners, alongside Ambassador Jane Hardy, the Australian Consul-General in Honolulu, and moderated by Ashley Townshend, the Centre's Director of Foreign Policy and Defence. Watch the full discussion HERE.

Catch this and other recent webinars on the USSC YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

Rallying cry in battleground states

Trump back on the trail | The president has resumed holding in-person political rallies after recovering from the coronavirus. The president’s physician issued a statement to say that Trump is “no longer a transmission risk” and the president himself speculated that he is immune. The campaign has been criticised for holding the non-socially distanced rallies in states like Florida where COVID-19 cases are rising. READ MORE HERE
Obama probe | A Department of Justice probe into potential wrongdoing by Obama administration officials will not issue a public report and has concluded without any prosecutions. The “unmasking” inquiry was examining the virtue of intelligence investigations into the 2016 Trump campaign concerning Russia. The quiet cessation of the probe will likely anger the president who has been calling for the arrests of the officials involved and has likened their intelligence requests to Watergate. READ MORE HERE
Kidnap plot thickens | Far-right militia members discussed kidnapping Democratic Virginia governor Ralph Northam, the FBI has revealed. The revelation came during court hearings related to the foiled plot to kidnap Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer which has sounded alarms about the rise of the far-right. Both governors have been pilloried as tyrants for their response to the COVID-19 pandemic. READ MORE HERE
A third wave of COVID | More than 20 states have reported record number of new coronavirus cases in the past week as fears of a third wave firm. Experts are concerned that as the United States heads towards winter, the rise in case numbers will accelerate as people spend more time indoors to avoid the cold weather. More than 215,000 Americans have died from the virus and almost 8 million have been infected. READ MORE HERE

I have no mission and no agenda. Judges don't have campaign promises.

Judge Amy Coney Barrett
Senate Judiciary Committee
12 October 2020

ANALYSIS

Right-wing terrorists will not stand back — and Australia should not stand by

Elliott Brennan
Research Associate

The foiled plot by right-wing domestic terrorists to kidnap one of the United States’ most prominent governors should sound an alert for Australia. After months of crises, the tearing apart of America's social fabric is heaving the nation to a dangerous moment. With the arrests of plotters in Michigan, we caught a glimpse of just how emboldened some of these extremists have become. They would gleefully lead the US into civil war.

A pre-eminent expert in the field, Australia's David Kilcullen, points out that the US has met many of the thresholds for an “incipient insurgency”. That is a term usually reserved for discussions about countries outside the world’s leading economies.

And Australia is not immune. As its domestic intelligence agency, ASIO, recently reported, far-right domestic terrorism threats comprise as much as 40 per cent of its case load.

But first to Michigan and the Wolverine Watchmen, a militia group linked to the kidnapping plot. It contains members pining for a much larger insurgency. Some within the fold believe Michigan and the United States have strayed so far from the sacred path charted by the American constitution that they must exercise their Second Amendment rights to bear arms and organise and maintain militias - and inspire others to follow them.

This was the alleged plan: kidnap Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer from her holiday home, set off bombs across the county to confuse the response of authorities, imply a breakdown in government and the Michigan legislature, and watch as groups in other states followed suit and sent the country into a civil war.

Why Whitmer? Because she had become the poster child for what they saw as overly harsh lockdowns amid the coronavirus pandemic.

BY THE NUMBERS

New COVID-19 weekly cases in Ohio

Second wave 9,585 | Third wave 10,327

Ohio is one of the largest swing states in this election, with 18 Electoral College delegates at play. In 2016, Trump won the state by more than eight points. However, it is part of the midwestern states experiencing a “third wave” of COVID-19 cases.

The total from the last seven days is 10,327 – much higher than the 9,585 cases from the highest weekly total during the second wave in July based on the reporting from the COVID Tracking Project. Whether this changes the minds of voters is something to watch on election day.