What to watch out for in 2020

Ashley Townshend 
Director, Foreign Policy and Defence Program

​Watch out for: Strategic soul searching |
Foreign policy experts inside “the blob” will lay out cases for America’s post-2020 — and perhaps post-Trump — role in the world. Will Asia be prioritised? Will strategies align with limited resources? Or will it be business as usual? One thing’s clear: there won’t be consensus.

Listen: The Asia Chessboard (CSIS) |
This podcast by Mike Green is one of the best places to get pithy debate about the future of American strategy in the Indo-Pacific. Policy relevant. Well produced. And featuring rising Asia hands from both sides of the aisle.

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Brendan Thomas-Noone
Research Fellow

​Watch out for: Big tech and the Pentagon | 
Keep an eye on the growing split in Silicon Valley over working with the Pentagon on military technology. It may well be Amazon and Microsoft in one corner, and Google and small innovative start-ups in another.

Watch: Years and Years (BBC & HBO) |
This mini-series explores the near-future through the lens of a Manchester-based family. A second Trump term? Technological change? South China Sea and the rise of populism? All have real-world and relatable consequences. Think Netflix's Black Mirror, but grounded.

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Brendon O'Connor
Associate Professor in American Politics

​Watch out for: Socialism |
US openness towards socialist and social democratic ideas and policies is a big change to follow. Health care for all, living wages, free university education and reduced military spending have been long advocated by activists but seldom promoted — as they are now — by popular American politicians.

Read: Anti-Social:Online Extremists, Techno-Utopians, and the Hijacking of the American Conversation by Andrew Marantz |
By delving into the alt-right and the spreading of lies and misinformation on the internet, Marantz provides a fascinating insight into how these phenomena are menaces to democracy.

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Bruce Wolpe
Non-Resident Senior Fellow

​Watch out for: An implicated Australia | 
The DOJ Inspector General Report on the Russia probe absolutely shows the Mueller fuse was lit by Australia. Will President Trump persist in conspiracy theories and seek retribution against Australia in 2020?

Watch: Billions (available on Stan) |
A riff on whoever in the Southern District of New York is plotting to take out former US Attorney Rudy Giuliani, and the glee that accompanies when that finally happens.

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Charles Edel
Senior Fellow

​Watch out for: US-China relations |
The US is in the midst of a fundamental shift in thinking about and dealing with China. This will affect investment, trade, technology and national security. In 2020, watch the evolving debate on what this means in — and beyond — Washington. 

Read: Our Man: Richard Holbrooke and the End of the American Century by George Packer |
Infuriating, compelling, magnificent and frustrating, Holbrooke helped shape post-war American diplomacy. Packer’s book, like its subject, is all those things. And — at 556 pages — a surprising page-turner.

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Claire McFarland
Director, Innovation and Entrepreneurship Program

Watch out for: Income inequality |
The US income gap has been increasing by every major statistical measure for more than 30 years. The United States' top 10 per cent now average more than nine times as much income as the bottom 90 per cent. 

Read: The Lucky Country by Donald Horne |
In 2020 it seems like a good opportunity to revisit Donald Horne’s classic book. Looking back helps us see how far we’ve come and where we can do better.

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Elliott Brennan
Research Associate

​Watch out for: The 'kids' |
This year proved to be one of youth action around the globe. Expect this to accelerate in 2020. For an early indication of where action meets institutions in the US, watch youth participation numbers in the Iowa and New Hampshire ballots. 

Read: Stop Being Reasonable by Eleanor Gordon-Smith |
A brilliant collection of essays exploring whether the notion of effective 'rational debate' actually holds water. Each is informed by conversations with people who have fundamentally changed their mind — seldom does dispassionate reason figure. An approachable, funny and addictive example of how philosophy should be written.  

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Gorana Grgic
Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy

​Watch out for: Nuclear proliferation |
After the demise of the INF treaty, if the US and Russia don’t extend or replace the larger New START treaty in 2020, there will be no legally binding limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time since 1972.

Read: Trick Mirror: Reflections on Self-Delusion by Jia Tolentino |
A collection of essays that tackle themes like American politics, capitalism, feminism, religion and pop culture whilst brilliantly capturing the zeitgeist. Some of my top picks include “The Story of a Generation in Seven Scams” and “Always Be Optimizing”. 

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Jared Mondschein
Senior Advisor

​Watch out for: Further declines |
If both US life expectancy and the earnings of millennials compared to prior generations continue to decline then maybe this populist moment lasts beyond the Trump administration.

Read: American Carnage: On the Front Lines of the Republican Civil War and the Rise of President Trump by Tim Alberta |
The way that the Republican Party has changed in the Trump era continues to astound even the most seasoned of Washington insiders. Politico writer Tim Alberta's book is the best sourced, best written, and most insightful look at this phenomenon.

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Kim Hoggard
Non-Resident Senior Fellow

Watch out for: The economy, stupid |
Keep an eye on US economic forecasts, GDP figures and trade resolutions. Trump has a pathway to re-election here if these are positive or resolved. The Bill Clinton '92 campaign slogan of "It’s the economy, stupid”, could resonate.

Read: The Unwinding: An Inner History of the New America by George Packer |
Australians wanting to understand the current US political crisis should read George Packer’s book. Reportage that reads as literature, illustrating the causes and effects that contributed to the United States' decline over the last 35 years.

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Matilda Steward
Research Associate

​Watch out for: The US Department of Defense (DoD) |
Since 2010, DoD has operated for an average of 119 days per year on a short-term funding extension. These stopgap measures effectively freeze hiring, contracts and the initiation of new programs – with harmful consequences for America’s national defence. The current agreement expires on the 20th of December. 

Watch: Making Perfect Season 2: Thanksgiving |
This six-part video series from Bon Appétit magazine provides an entertaining insight into the trials and tribulations of developing the ultimate menu for one of America’s most well-known holidays. The results are delicious!

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Megan MacKenzie
Non-Resident Fellow

​Watch out for: Climate action |
Expect to see people increasingly connecting ongoing events like drought, severe storms, and extreme weather as being exacerbated or caused by the climate crisis.  

Listen: Dolly Parton's America (WNYC Studios) |
Dolly might just be the last person in America that everyone loves and can agree on. Why is that? In answering this question Jad Abumrad explores hillbilly culture, racial politics, sexism, the #MeToo movements and more.

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Shaun Ratcliff
Lecturer in Political Science

Watch out for: Recession | 
A recession is due. Historically, the US has had one at least every decade, it’s been a decade since the financial crisis and bond markets have looked nervous. A recession would have implications for the 2020 elections and the rest of the world.

Watch: Watchmen (HBO) |
Turning television based on comic books into legitimate art. A serious exploration of race and racial politics in the United States which provides the grounds for a discussion of racial violence, racial inequality and white supremacy. 

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Simon Jackman
CEO, United States Studies Centre 

​Watch out for: Federalism |
Expect to see the continuation of the battle between the Trump administration and state governments on environmental regulation. Additionally, watch for state and local governments to continue to pursue Paris targets independently of the Trump administration's withdrawal.

Read: Shameless USSC plug |
Next week, the Centre will release the results of its massive cross-country poll of Americans and Australians on issues ranging from gun control, to the role of government, prejudice and race, the status of alliances and much more. 

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Stephen Kirchner
Director, Trade and Investment Program

Watch out for: Business investment in the US |
The uncertainty caused by President Trump’s trade war has seen US fixed investment spending fall in the second and third quarters of 2019. Investment spending is also sensitive to political uncertainty and is often the main driver of the cyclical variation in overall economic growth.

Read: Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital by Kimberly Clausing |
Clausing makes the case for free trade in goods, capital and labour from a progressive perspective. She argues that international openness helps the poor and the vulnerable and makes policy recommendations to help manage globalisation more effectively.

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Stephen Loosley
Non-Resident Senior Fellow

​Watch out for: Brexit | 
The outcome of the British election and the fate of the UK as a member state in the European Union will deliver a very serious lesson for global politics – for ill or otherwise.

Read: Our Man: Richard Holbrooke and the End of the American Century by George Packer |
This exploration of one of the key figures in American diplomacy and foreign policy is the best political biography of 2019. It is at once insightful and engaging.

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Zoe Meers
Research Assistant

​Watch out for: Judicial appointments |
Keep an eye on President Trump's appointments to federal judiciary bench. These lifetime appointments have the ability to shape American policy. Many policy decisions are made or gutted through judicial means.

Read: Deep Roots: How Slavery Still Shapes Southern Politics by Avidit Acharya, Matthew Blackwell & Maya Sen |
A compelling empirical analysis of why and how the conservative American South remains tethered to its slave-holding past. This book argues that there is a causal link between slavery and the conservative political ideology that is dominant in the American South today.