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28 AUGUST
No watershed moment at G7
President Donald Trump was noticeably absent at key stages during the G7 meeting held in Biarritz, France over the weekend. The president didn't attend several meetings on issues like the environment and climate change, which administration officials referred to as "niche issues". A pledge of US$20 million was made to Brazil to help fight the fires in the Amazon rainforest but Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro rejected the offer as "colonial" and then later offered possible terms for its acceptance.
French President Emmanuel Macron invited Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to hold talks on the sidelines of the G7 in a possible effort to salvage the nuclear deal. President Trump said he would "certainly agree" to meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rouhani, and suggested offering short-term loans to help the country with its current economic difficulties. However, on Tuesday, the Iranian president said that his country had no intention to talk to the United States unless all sanctions were lifted.
NEWS WRAP
Australians prefer any Democrat to Trump
- Only one in five Australians want to see a second term for President Trump according to latest United States Studies Centre and YouGov polling. But they
stand to be disappointed. USSC CEO Simon Jackman and lecturer in political science Shaun Ratcliff said that while some Democrats poll more strongly than others among Americans, falls in support for Democratic candidates do not translate into gains in support for Donald Trump. The authors shared the results in an article in the Sydney Morning Herald. READ HERE
- The United States and China could restart trade talks according to President Trump. These comments came after an announcement last week that he would raise tariffs on Chinese imports and that he could force American businesses to leave China. In an interview with the Sydney Morning Herald, USSC Trade and Investment Program director Stephen Kirchner commented that "I think it's very much part of a cycle where Trump hits people with tariffs, other countries retaliate, and this gives rise to a trade war. There's an effort to resolve the differences, but those talks then basically fail, and we get another round of tariffs." READ MORE HERE
- Australia's decision to join that it will join US military efforts to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is one principally made to satisfy a political request from the Trump administration, said USSC Foreign Policy and Defence Program director Ashley Townshend in an interview with The Guardian. Townshend commented that while Australia has clear interests in freedom of navigation and in securing energy supply lines through the Strait of Hormuz, Australia “should urge the Trump administration to return to a sensible path of diplomacy, which is how this
ordeal can and should end”. READ MORE HERE
- Is Australia removed from the political turmoil that seems to have swept the Western world? Non-resident senior fellow Bruce Wolpe joined Adam Peacock on the "Peacock Politics" podcast to explain Australia's "Washminster" system of government and whether overseas political trends have an influence on Australian politics. LISTEN HERE
Very much I have the children on my mind. It bothers me greatly.
President Donald Trump
When asked about a new policy that means that migrant families who are detained after illegally crossing the border can be kept indefinitely.
25 August 2019
ANALYSIS
Could Joe Walsh could herald the end of Trump's presidency?
Bruce Wolpe
Non-resident Senior Fellow
When former Republican congressman Joe Walsh announced last Sunday that he was running against Trump for the party’s nomination for president in 2020, the instant verdict was overwhelming: Walsh does not have a chance in hell. “Mr. Walsh stands virtually no chance of wresting the Republican presidential nomination away from Mr. Trump,” the New York Times wrote. And the Times is correct.
But Walsh’s run could still herald the end of Trump’s presidency.
There are no Newtonian rules of politics as there are in physics, but there are certain axioms that have proved true over history. And among the most important is this: Going back to Franklin D. Roosevelt, but really since the advent in the 1960s of the modern system of party primaries for presidential nominations, no incumbent president seeking re-election has been successful if challenged in the primaries.
In 1968, Lyndon Johnson withdrew from the race following challenges from Senators Gene McCarthy and Robert Kennedy. Johnson’s words from the Oval Office on March 31, 1968 remain some of the most haunting ever uttered in a presidential address: “Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president.” The nation was irrevocably changed that night.
In 1976, President Gerald Ford, who assumed office in 1974 following Richard Nixon’s resignation over Watergate, fought off California Governor Ronald Reagan – and lost to Jimmy Carter. In 1980, Carter beat Senator Ted Kennedy to win the re-nomination, and lost to Reagan. In 1992, President George H. W. Bush was challenged by conservative Pat Buchanan – and lost to Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton.
Reagan, Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama never had an opponent to re-nomination and each served two terms.
Aside from coming after Trump from the rigid hard-right of the conservative movement – a part of Trump‘s base – and with an air of moralism against Trump’s personality and style, why will Walsh inflict damage on Trump? Walsh will get measurable media attention. He will challenge Trump to debates during the primaries – and force Trump to publicly ignore him. While Trump has 85 per cent support in the Republican Party, any primary showing where Walsh and the other rebellious contender, former liberal Governor William Weld of Massachusetts, might together take out 25 per cent of a given state’s Republican primary contest (think New Hampshire) will be noteworthy. In other words, Walsh will be a noisy nuisance who will get airtime, and Trump will have to pay attention at least to Walsh and will have to devote resources against him.
All these incursions by Walsh mean that Trump will have to spend some of his political capital and therefore make Trump weaker going into the general election than would be the case if he was truly unopposed for re-nomination.
While this is not an iron law of politics, there is some truth in a half century of testing in the field.
Walsh could well number Trump’s remining days in office.
DIARY
The week ahead
Thursday, 29 August: International day against nuclear tests.
Monday, 2 September: US House and Senate are back in session.
Monday, 9 September: Australian House and Senate are back in session.
VIDEO
Taylor Swift makes a statement on the Trump administration and the Equality Act at MTV Video Music Awards
THE WEEK IN TWEETS
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United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006
