13 JANUARY

Democracy under siege

Last week's violent attack on Capitol Hill was simultaneously shocking, saddening and not unexpected. In the aftermath, Vice President Pence has refused demands that he remove President Trump by invoking the 25th Amendment and Democrats have charged ahead with a second impeachment for “incitement of insurrection.” As we write this penultimate edition of The 45th, a handful of Republican members of Congress are openly supporting Trump's removal from office and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell is reportedly not opposed to Trump's impeachment.

At the same time, investigations are revealing the extent of the peril posed to members of Congress during the January 6 insurrection, and the United States is bracing for the prospect of more politically motivated violence.

In an interview with The Daily Telegraph United States Studies Centre (USSC) Senior Research Fellow Jared Mondschein said, “It’s all but inevitable that there will be more violence, it’s just a question of how much.” The mayor of Washington DC wrote to the White House with grave concerns for security around the inauguration saying, “I have determined that the plans and resources previously assigned to the Inauguration are insufficient,” and President Trump responded by declaring a state of emergency in Washington DC until 24 January to provide more funds and support for additional security around the inauguration.

The FBI is now warning about potential armed protests at all US state capitols and in Washington, DC. The USSC will be sharing relevant information and analysis in coming days and weeks. Research that may be of interest as you make sense of current events in the United States includes:

The role of the US military in quelling domestic protests by Jim Golby
‘Delighting in causing complete chaos’: What’s behind Trump supporters’ brazen storming of the Capitol by David Smith
American democracy will survive. For now by Bruce Wolpe
Impeachment 101 by Simon Jackman
Impeachment as national security by Charles Edel
Impeachment: The insiders' guide by Simon Jackman, Charles Edel, Gorana Grgic, Mia Love and Bruce Wolpe

NEWS WRAP

Impeachment 2.0

Three Republicans back impeachment | Three House Republicans have come forward in support of the Democrats’ move to impeach Donald Trump in a bid to hold the president accountable for his role in encouraging the capitol riots. House Majority Leader Mitch McConnell reportedly also supports impeachment but has not come forward publicly. READ MORE HERE
FBI: more ‘armed protests’ planned | The FBI announced it has received information indicating “armed protests” are planned for all 50 state capitols and Washington DC, in the lead up to 20 January. Security measures are being ramped up ahead of Inauguration Day and federal investigators are tracking reports of threats to harm President-elect Joe Biden as well as Vice President-elect Kamala Harris and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. READ MORE HERE
Dems take Georgia and US Senate | After two run-off election victories in Georgia, Democrats have won the balance of power in the US Senate. John Ossoff and Raphael Warnock both won against the Republican incumbents, making it the first time since the early 2000s that Georgia will be represented by two Democratic senators. The last Democrat-controlled Congress was from 2009-2011. READ MORE HERE
Amenable alternative? | Congressional Democrats introduced an article of impeachment against President Trump and calls continue for Vice President Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove the president from office. But some experts are now pointing to an alternative — a provision in the 14th Amendment which specifically addresses those in office engaging in, “giving aid or comfort to” an insurrection or rebellion. READ MORE HERE

To those who wreaked havoc in our Capitol today, you did not win.
Violence never wins. Freedom wins, and this is still the people’s house [...] Let's get back to work.

Vice President Mike Pence
Senate floor speech following capitol riots
6 January 2021

COUNTDOWN

Changing of the guard

The 20th Amendment states, the "terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January [...] and the terms of their successors shall begin".

At noon on 20 January 2021 (21 January at 4am AEDT) — 78 days after Americans cast their votes at the polls — Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th president of the United States.

VIRTUAL EVENT

Key players in the Biden administration

President-elect Biden has made clear that his administration will be different than any before. He has also pledged his team will reflect the diversity of America and he is seeking known collaborators, rather than "a team of rivals" that President Obama famously referenced with his first Cabinet. Yet President-elect Biden was elected by an exceedingly divided and polarised country and he will need to reconcile a number of factions, even within his own party.

Will Biden’s Cabinet reflect his campaign promises? What does the proposed Biden Cabinet mean for Australia and its national priorities? What is the best approach for Australia to engage with new leadership in Washington?

To discuss these issues, please join us for a webinar event with a panel of USSC experts including Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy Dr G orana Grgic, Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe and Non-Resident Fellow Dr Jennifer Hunt in discussion with CEO Professor Simon Jackman.

WHEN:
Wednesday, 20 January 2021, 10am AEDT (Sydney)
Tuesday, 19 January 2021, 6pm EST (Washington DC)

COST:
Free, but registration is essential

REGISTER NOW

ANALYSIS

Donald Trump's slow march against American democracy

Elliott Brennan
Research Associate

Professor Simon Jackman
Chief Executive Officer

During the final presidential debate, Donald Trump told white supremacists and the notorious Proud Boys to "stand back and stand by". This week they stood up and embarrassed the United States before the eyes of the world.

The images of MAGA rioters occupying the House of Representatives, ransacking Nancy Pelosi's office and flying Trump flags over a Capitol Building with inauguration bleachers at the ready and full of rioters, will endure. They will contribute an indelible stain not only on the Trump presidency but on the stock of democracy globally.

How the United States reached this point will be fodder for historians in the decades to come, but for the most part it has happened in the open and in real time.

Democracy in the United States is flourishing and teetering

On paper, the 2020 US elections are a triumph for democracy and the rule of law. More than 159 million Americans — more than two-thirds of eligible voters — cast votes, the highest voter turnout rate since 1900.

Courts heard and decided numerous challenges to state and local electorate processes both before and after the election. Election Day and the contentious days that followed were almost universally peaceful. Cybersecurity officials declared the elections the most secure in recent history.

But the passion that drove massive voter turnout in the election cuts two ways, a testament to democratic vibrancy, but also a driver of dissent and the violent protests that unfolded in Washington this week.

Protest is a feature of the Trump era. Even before the anti-lockdown and Black Lives Matter protests of 2020, participation in the 16,000 protests in the first three years of Trump's term was likely higher per capita than during the US Civil Rights Movement of the mid-20th century.

This is an excerpt from a recent article by Mr Brennan and Professor Jackman published on ABC News.
Click below to read the full article.

VIDEO

Vaccines, democracy and truth

Did you miss our webinar Vaccines, democracy and truth: Disinformation and digital disruption after the 2020 election? The event featured award-winning investigative journalist for NBC News Brandy Zadrozny and USSC Non-resident Fellow and Lecturer at the National Security College at ANU, Dr Jennifer Hunt in conversation with USSC Research Associate Elliott Brennan. Watch the full discussion HERE.

You can also find more research on disinformation, conspiracy theories and digital disruption from the experts who participated in this event, as well as other USSC experts contributing to the discourse, on our website HERE.

Catch this and other recent webinars on the USSC YouTube channel!

BY THE NUMBERS

Percentage of population extremely or very likely to use COVID-19 vaccine

US 36% | AUS 66%

Today the Australian and New Zealand Society for Immunology has publicly called for the Australian government to halt the rollout of the Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccine because the efficacy would not be enough to provide herd immunity. The Oxford vaccine currently reports preventing 62 per cent of COVID-19 infections, compared to 94 per cent for the Moderna vaccine and 95 per cent for the Pfizer vaccine.

In soon to be released polling by the USSC researchers found a significant disparity between the percent of the population who were extremely or very likely to receive a COVID vaccine in Australia and the United States. Two thirds of Australians surveyed reported being highly willing to received an approved COVID vaccine compared to only 36 per cent of Americans. This willingness compounds the efficacy discrepancy, meaning the Oxford vaccine would fall far short of the percentage needed for herd immunity in both countries.

Read more about COVID management under a Biden administration here and about how vaccine nationalism impacts the United States and Australia here.