10 OCTOBER

Haley resigns

US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley’s resignation on Tuesday wasn't one of the embittered departures we have often seen from high-profile Trump administration officials. Announced in a surprise morning sit-down with the president, Trump called Haley "a very special" person "who gets it". “We’ve done a fantastic job together,” he said. 

Haley, a former governor of South Carolina, cited cutting millions of dollars from the UN budget as one of her major accomplishments, as well as addressing what she described as "anti-Israel bias". She also praised the president's daughter Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner, calling Kushner a "hidden genius".

President Trump promised he would name a new UN ambassador within three weeks. He said there is no-one more qualified in the world to become the next US ambassador than his daughter, Ivanka, describing her as "dynamite". He told reporters that he has heard her name discussed for the post, but said if he selected her, he'd be accused of nepotism.

Read Elsina Wainwright's brief on Nikki Haley's work at the United Nations and on human rights policy here.

NEWS WRAP

Will "women's rage" affect the midterms?

• As Brett Kavanaugh prepares to take the bench for a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court, the anger voiced by many American women is being deeply felt. But what will it translate into? In her column for The Sydney Morning Herald this week, honorary associate Nicole Hemmer writes that “women’s rage" is not quite the unifying concept that it purports to be. Nor is it effective in every instance (it did not stop Donald Trump’s election, and it did not halt Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation). READ MORE HERE.
   

• Is the political chasm exposed by the Kavanaugh appointment a sign that the United States is more polarised than any time in its history? Visiting Fellow Stephen Loosley joined the ABC's Stan Grant for a discussion about the US political divide and the lack of moderates in Congress able to bridge that gap. WATCH HERE.
   

• Trump just had his best week of the year, according to Visiting Fellow Bruce Wolpe in his midterms blog this week. Consider this: Kavanaugh has been confirmed, the United States has the best employment numbers in 50 years, there's a new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, there's been silence from Special Counsel Robert Mueller and a New York Times expose of the Trump family business structures did not force disclosure of Trump’s tax returns nor gain much traction beyond the day's news cycle. READ MORE HERE.
   

• The new US trade agreement with Canada and Mexico will be a "win for farmers", according to the president. Departing for Iowa on Tuesday, Trump said the pact will send cash pouring into the United States and enrich America’s agriculture and industrial workers. But American businesses still face uncertainty, with lingering tariffs on foreign steel and aluminium among their biggest concerns. Senior fellow Jared Mondschein looked at the NAFTA agreement and the ongoing US-China trade war for CNBC. WATCH HERE.
   

• Australia is missing out on export opportunities because of poor agriculture technology (AgTech) investment, according to new research from the Centre's Innovation and Entrepreneurship program. The Australian Financial Review took an in-depth look at the report's findings on Australian AgTech and the opportunities and challenges as seen from a US venture capital perspective. READ MORE HERE.
   

• Serious venture capital would be required for Australia to catch-up to world leaders in AgTech, with potential for US funds to become involved. AgTech report co-author Jared Mondschein joined The Australian's Adam Creighton on Your Money for a discussion about what it would take for Australia to become a 'superpower' in the sector. WATCH HERE.

Me.

Obama national security advisor and former US ambassador to the UN Susan Rice responds to a question on Twitter about who wanted to run against Republican Senator Susan Collins folliowing her vote for Brett Kavanaugh's appointment.
(6 October 2018)

ANALYSIS

Where to next for Nikki Haley?

Madelyn Creedon
Alliance 21 Fellow

US Secretary of Defense James Mattis has done an excellent job ensuring congressional support for a much increased defence budget, strengthening alliances, building partnerships and being an inspirational leader for US defence forces. Nevertheless, rumours about his future abound. Secretary Mattis may well last the full first term of the Trump administration, but if he leaves after November's midterm elections, who is a logical replacement? And could Nikki Haley's resignation as US Ambassador to the United Nations overnight be a factor in all this?

Senior South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham's recent performance during the Brett Kavanaugh hearings and his dramatic turn to be more "Trump than Trump" is driven by two things. First, that he has to get back in the good graces of the Republican Party following the death of his close friend and fellow maverick, John McCain. Without the protection of Senator McCain flying top-cover, Graham can’t be the independent he fancies himself being and still be in the good graces of the Republican leadership, like majority leader Senator Mitch McConnell.

Second, to escape the Senate and truly come into his own, Senator Graham – a retired Air Force Reserve JAG colonel – is seen as a logical successor for Mattis. Graham is smart and well respected in defence circles. After the midterms, the public wounds from the Kavanaugh hearings may well have healed – or at the least the blame may no longer be laid at Graham’s feet. The core Trumpers also now see Graham as one of theirs.

If Graham is confirmed as Secretary of Defense, enter: Nikki Haley. Is it a coincidence that Senator Graham was one of the first senators to issue a statement praising Ambassador Haley following her resignation? Graham’s term would not be up until 2020 and Senator Haley would be a coup for Republicans, who need more high profile, well-respected women. She's a logical replacement. 

Such an appointment would allow Haley to step out from under the directives of President Trump and perhaps, more importantly, the heavy hand of National Security Advisor John Bolton, who himself was a former US ambassador to the UN. 

As a popular former governor of South Carolina, Haley shouldn’t have any trouble getting re-elected when the time comes. With higher ambitions clearly in her sights, she would be in a much better position for a 2024 presidential run as Senator Haley, rather than Ambassador Haley.

Madelyn Creedon served as Principal Deputy Administrator of the US National Nuclear Security Administration from 2014 to 2017. She has also served in the Pentagon as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs, and as counsel for the US Senate Committee on Armed Services.

DIARY

The week ahead

• Wednesday, 10 October: President Trump is scheduled to hold a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.
   

• Wednesday, 10 October: US Supreme Court will hear arguments.
   

• Friday, 12 October: President Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a campaign rally in Ohio.
   

• Saturday, 13 October: President Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a campaign rally in Richmond, Kentucky.
   

• 15-18 October: Both houses of Australian Parliament sitting.

EVENT

Women in foreign policy

VIDEO

"I don't always agree [with] what he tweets" - First Lady Melania Trump

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#SupremeCourt

Manage your email preferences  |  Forward this email to a friend

United States Studies Centre
Institute Building H03
University of Sydney NSW 2006

​www.ussc.edu.au  |  us-studies@sydney.edu.au