Research Theme I: The low carbon emissions economy
Analysis sees peak fossil fuel use by 2030
April 24, 2013. Advances in fuel-efficiency and renewable-energy technology are curbing demand for fossil fuels and paving the way towards so called “peak fossil fuels” sooner than originally predicted. Bloomberg New Energy Finance
projects that by 2030, 70 percent of the world’s total power generation investment will be directed towards renewables due to the growth in fossil-fuel use having almost stopped. This, it claims, will result in renewable energy constituting half of all global power generation by that date. Interestingly, this scenario does not foresee a strengthening of climate policy. The ramp-up of renewables would be driven by the decrease in renewable energy technology costs
and their rapid adoption worldwide, especially in emerging markets like China, India and Brazil. China is now the world’s biggest investor in renewable energy, investing $65.1 billion last year, compared with $35.6 billion in the United States (US). Fuel-efficient technologies will also slow growth in energy demand and their adoption will become the new normal.
In British Columbia 2009/10 total revenue from oil and gas royalties, including petroleum and natural gas rights sales, totaled $1.35 billion – almost 60 per cent of total direct revenues from BC’s resource industries. Of growing importance to the province, is the investment in independent power projects (IPPs). The Clean Energy Act
requires that BC produce at least 93% of its electricity from clean or renewable facilities located within the province. In British Columbia this is largely run-of-river hydro and wind facilities. In 2009/2010, 8,400 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity was generated from these IPP projects, a figure that rose to 10,827 GWh in 2011/2010. With strong growth in electricity demand over the next few years combined with the stipulations embedded in the BC Clean Energy Act, the province’s reliance on renewable energy technologies is expected to grow.
Research Theme II: Sustainable communities
People want more fuel-efficient vehicles
April 29, 2013. The Consumer Federation of America recently released a report evaluating
progress towards new US vehicle fuel efficiency standards. US standards now require vehicles to achieve an average across a manufacturer’s fleet of 54.5 miles-per-gallon (mpg) or 4.2 L/100 km by 2025, and this first review gives a strong indication that the target will be met. Many car companies have vehicles on the market that are already meeting that standard and nearly half of US car models already have a version meeting the 2014 interim fuel efficiency target. Furthermore, the market share of best selling vehicles achieving at least 30 mpg (7.8 L/100 km) has risen from 4 to 12 percent in the last four years. Sales of vehicles getting less than 22 mpg (10.7 L/100 km) dropped from 70% to 44%. On the consumer side, the survey reports that people generally support the mileage standards, and three out of five people indicate that fuel economy will be a 'very important' factor in
the next vehicle they buy.
For more than 30 years Canada had a voluntary policy for improvements in fuel consumption from cars and light trucks. However fuel efficiency standards in BC and Canada are now being aligned with the US
regulated standards. Despite such policy changes, in British Columbia the rising demand for light trucks and slow rates of electric vehicle sales have put a brake on fuel efficiency improvements, even with the incentives of higher gas prices and provincial rebates. A BC based professional engineer and plug-in electric vehicle enthusiast, hypothesized
that a probable explanation for slower EV sales may be that Canadians prefer vehicles with lower up-front costs. Additionally, higher price tags further disadvantaged plug-in electric vehicles in the Canadian market with prices starting at around $42,000 as opposed to $39,995 in the US. However, according to a survey conducted by the Canadian Automobile Association (CAA), 45% of British Columbians say they are likely to buy or are ready to consider buying an all-electric vehicle for their next purchase.
Research Theme III: Resilient ecosystems
Songbird’s timing disrupted, but with surprising results
April 25, 2013. Spring has been arriving early in many parts of the world, and not all species are adapting to the changing timing of the seasons. In western Europe, recent research
found that the Great Tit, a common songbird, is not breeding earlier to match the peaking of its caterpillar prey population, which is happening earlier with warmer spring temperatures. However, the mismatch has not yet led to a population decline of the Great Tit. This is largely due to a mechanism called density-dependent compensation (DDC). “The solution to the paradox is that although fewer offspring now fledge due to a food shortage, each of these chicks has a higher chance of survival until the next breeding season.” The authors refer to this as relaxed competition, as there are fewer fledglings with which to compete. “Out of 10 eggs laid, 9 chicks are born, 7 fledge and on average only one chick survives winter. That last number increases with less competitors around.” The authors affirm that genetic adaptation is still necessary in the long term, however,
and it must come before the costs outweigh the capacity of DDC to slow the decline.
Some BC species are already adapting successfully to the advancing spring season. For example, research on a pink salmon population
in southern Alaska found that the average migration time has shifted two weeks earlier in response to warmer stream temperatures, while abundance of the genetic marker that indicates late-migrating fish has decreased threefold over the last 40 years. Changes in the timing of salmon runs along the Pacific Coast may impact many other species that depend on this influx of nutrients, including grizzly bears, coastal wolves, and
scavenging birds. Protecting these species and the interactions between them is important for the preservation of biodiversity, but BC currently has no legislation
that protects federally-listed species at risk on provincial and private lands. This could change, depending on the results of the upcoming BC election. In their platforms, the NDP
specifically states that it will implement new legislation to protect endangered species and habitats (p. 41), as does the Green Party (p. 25). The Liberal Party
does not include a statement regarding species at risk in its platform.
Research Theme IV: Social mobilization
Political affiliation and support for climate action
April 30, 2013. Despite long held assumptions to the contrary, recent research suggests that political affiliation is not an important indicator of support for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. For example, a study led
by a Michigan State researcher finds that regardless of political affiliation or orientation, American voters who believe in the scientific consensus on climate change are more likely to support government led emissions reductions. However, a study conducted by the University of Pennsylvania and Duke University suggests that a person’s political affiliation is likely to influence their support and preference for the type of policy mechanism or tool used to curb GHG emissions. In
research published recently, the authors found that energy efficiency labels on light bulbs can discourage conservative voters from buying the product, but highlighting the product’s financial incentives, or the way that it encourages ‘energy independence’ will incentivize purchasing by the same group.
Within the US, a political campaign group
is trying to generate Republican support for firmer action on climate change by ‘shaming’ Republican climate change skeptics within Congress. The campaign specifically targets politicians who deny the scientific consensus on the topic, and its aim is to generate public outcry. No such campaign exists in Canada. Indeed, the Minister of Natural Resources Canada, Joe Oliver, stated in April that, “Scientists have recently told us that our fears (on climate change) are
exaggerated”. However, within British Columbia at least, the issue of climate change is a cross-party issue. In 2008 the BC Liberal Party implemented its suite of climate policy measures, including North America’s first revenue neutral carbon tax. The carbon taxation scheme was innovative, and resulted in a series of tax shifts, that reduced both corporate and personal income taxes in the province to amongst the lowest levels across Canada. All parties competing in the upcoming BC provincial election have included the carbon tax in their platforms. The Liberals would freeze the tax for five years, the NDP would expand the scope of the tax to include process
emissions from the oil and gas industry, the Conservatives would scrap the tax, and the Green Party would continue to increase the tax at an incremental annual rate.
Research Theme V: Carbon management in BC forests
Forest emissions mix with air pollution to potent effect
April 23, 2013. While it is easy to visualize vehicle exhaust or burning trash emitting particles and gases in to the atmosphere, the emissions of trees, plants and forests come less readily to the mind’s eye. Scientists have discovered
that pollution (sulphuric and nitric acids along with aerosol organic compounds) drifting from cities to natural areas interacts with forest emissions to create secondary organic aerosols (SOAs). Researchers in the US spent a month flying over the skies of Sacramento, California, measuring air particulates. They were looking at the interactions between city pollution and the mountain air of the Sierra Nevada. They found elevated levels of secondary organic aerosols that can have a large impact on air quality, visibility, human health and ultimately, the climate.
The degree of mixing between anthropogenic air pollution and the emissions of trees to form SOAs surprised the scientists in California. One particular emission from forests – isoprene – was found to interact with air pollution to create higher levels of various nitrogen oxides, emissions that are damaging to human health. The presence of SOA’s can influence the radiative character and oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. If BC is to better understand and manage its environmental footprint, the interactions between air pollution and forests needs to be investigated. In particular, given the geographical variations in the abundance of natural forest cover across the BC landscape, and taking the lead of the new California-based research, an imperative for the Province will be the accurate determination of local impacts.
Also in the news
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Atmospheric carbon levels nearing historic threshold
Climate secrets of sea spray and clouds revealed
San Francisco and Seattle lead US cities pulling funds from fossil fuel firms
A new era for clean energy in Canada
Google, Cisco share first place on Greenpeace's 2013 Cool IT list
