VIDEO

A conversation with former National Security Advisor Amb John Bolton

Did you miss our webinar last night featuring special guest former White House National Security Advisor Ambassador John Bolton? Watch the full discussion with USSC CEO Professor Simon Jackman and USAC CEO Professor Gordon Flake HERE.

Catch this and other recent webinars on the USSC YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

Trump badgering Wisconsin

• Kenosha mayor and Wisconsin governor object to Trump visit
  President Trump is in Kenosha, Wisconsin to bring his campaign message of law and order, despite objections from Kenosha Mayor John Antaramian (D) and Governor Tony Evers (D). The visit comes during widespread unrest following video of police shooting Black man Jacob Blake seven times in the back. READ MORE HERE
   

• New Fed approach to inflation puts pressure on RBA
  In a major policy shift, the US Federal Reserve is taking an "activist approach" by allowing inflation to run higher than the standard 2 per cent target before hiking near-zero interest rates. Dr Stephen Kirchner argues this will put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to "lift its game or leave Australia with a monetary policy that is too tight both in absolute terms and relative to the US." READ MORE HERE
   

• Trump pushes for 'patriotic education' in schools
  President Trump has called for US schools to "restore patriotic education" as a way to counter "lies about America being a wicked nation plagued by racism." During a news conference, the president blamed the recent protests and unrest in Portland, Oregon and other cities on "left-wing indoctrination" in schools and universities. READ MORE HERE
   

• Republican alumni rallying to Joe Biden
  A spate of high profile Republicans have endorsed Joe Biden's presidential bid in a display which Non-Resident Fellow Kim Hoggard, a staffer in the Reagan and George HW Bush administrations, says is "unprecedented". The growing list of GOP alumni include former Secretary of State Colin Powell and former Senator Jeff Flake who, at a USSC event in January, urged Republicans to risk their careers in favour of their principles and not vote for Trump. In an interview with Sky News, Hoggard said the GOP has been a "fractured party for a few decades." WATCH INTERVIEW HERE
   

• Markey defeats Kennedy in blue-on-blue Massachusetts Senate primary
  Incumbent Democratic Massachusetts Senator Edward Markey fought off a Senate primary challenge from Joe Kennedy, the grandnephew of President John F Kennedy. The eventful campaign was regarded by some as a
  proxy war between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who backed Congressman Kennedy, and progressive Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who endorsed Senator Markey. READ MORE HERE

ANALYSIS

Biden vs Trump: Indo-Pacific defence strategy

Ashley Townshend
Director, Foreign Policy and Defence

What would a second Trump administration mean for America's Indo-Pacific defence strategy?

The defining feature of the Trump administration’s approach to US defence strategy has been its effort to prioritise competition with China in the Indo-Pacific ahead of other global security commitments. In the 2018 National Defense Strategy, the administration went further than its predecessors in highlighting the urgent need to refocus the US military away from counterinsurgency missions in the Middle East towards preparations for high-intensity conflict with a great power competitor. It has also sharpened the focus on conventional deterrence by denial as the primary means by which the United States — alongside its allies and partners — will seek to dissuade Chinese aggression and uphold a favourable regional balance of power, even in the context of its declining military dominance.

This clarity of focus has been welcomed by Australia and other US allies and partners in the region. Set against the Trump administration’s failure to develop a coherent Indo-Pacific strategy that integrates military, economic and diplomatic lines of effort, these defence policy settings have provided a foundation for advancing important military cooperation, defence engagement and regional alliance coordination initiatives. Driven by effective political appointees and bureaucratic leaders within the Department of Defense, all of this is likely to continue in a second Trump administration.

If re-elected, Trump’s “America First” agenda is sure to continue, along with its undesirable effect of undermining the allied and partner components of his administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

VIRTUAL EVENT

Election Watch: US Politics Web Series

Featuring special guest Mark Textor and host Zoe Daniel

The Perth USAsia Centre and United States Studies Centre host a monthly web series in which our CEOs review the latest in US politics with a focus on the upcoming US election and US-Indo-Pacific relations.

This month's guest is Mark Textor, Co-Founder and Non-Executive Director of C|T Group and the political strategist behind John Howard, Boris Johnson and Tony Abbott. Mr Textor will join US Studies Centre CEO Professor Simon Jackman and Perth USAia Centre CEO Professor Gordon Flake for their insights on the top stories in US politics from an Australian perspective hosted by former ABC Washington Bureau Chief Zoe Daniel.

WHEN:
Friday, 4 September 2020, 1pm AEST and 11am AWST

COST: 
Free, but registration is essential

BY THE NUMBERS

Wisconsin polling

2016 poll error 7.3% | 2020 Biden poll lead 6.4% 

In 2016, Wisconsin was the swing state with the largest deviation from pre-election polling to actual results. Ahead of the election, Clinton was polling with a 6.5 per cent lead over Trump, but Trump won Wisconsin by 0.8 per cent – a polling error of 7.3 per cent. At the moment, polling shows Biden has a 6.4 per cent lead over Trump in Wisconsin – greater than the polling error from 2016, meaning this swing state could go either way.

In an upcoming brief, CEO Professor Simon Jackman and former Research Assistant and Data Visualisation Analyst Zoe Meers compare and contrast the 2016 and 2020 polling to give a more accurate interpretation of what to expect in November. Register here to receive a notification when it is published.

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#TrumpHealth