13 MARCH

Culvahouse comes to Canberra

New US ambassador to Australia Arthur B. Culvahouse has arrived at the US embassy in Canberra to begin his term. An establishment Republican figure, Culvahouse is best known for his vetting of GOP vice presidential candidates, including Mike Pence, and for his role as White House counsel to Ronald Reagan in the last two years of his presidency.

"In the time of Donald Trump's presidency, this link to the president is even more significant," said non-resident senior fellow Stephen Loosley. 

CEO Simon Jackman and senior fellow Charles Edel spoke to The Australian newspaper today about the task ahead of Culvahouse and what Australians can expect from Washington's new man in Canberra.

NEWS WRAP

"He's just not worth it"

• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says Donald Trump is not worth impeaching. The Democratic stalwart made the comments in an interview published by the Washington Post. The comments come as Special Counsel Robert Mueller is reportedly set to hand down the findings of his two year investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election to the US attorney general. Senior lecturer in American Politics David Smith spoke to ABC News about Pelosi's comments and the political minefield that comes with impeachment. READ MORE HERE.




• Two senior Trump security officials have visited the Pacific, indicating the administration's growing concern about Chinese influence in the region. Senior Director for Asian Affairs on the White House National Security Council (NSC), Matt Pottinger, and its director for Oceania & Indo-Pacific security, Alexander Gray, visited Vanuatu and Solomon Islands to meet with officials and politicians. Pottinger also visited Australia and New Zealand. Director of USSC's Foreign Policy and Defence Program Ashley Townshend spoke to ABC News about what the visits signify. READ MORE HERE.
   

• Should countries pay cost plus 50 per cent to host American troops? That's what President Trump is reportedly proposing after long complaining that allies aren't paying a fair share for the US military presence on their soil. The reports have alarmed allies like Japan, Germany and South Korea. Critics say the policy would give the impression that the US military is a mercenary force. READ MORE HERE.
   

• With increased tension between China, the United States and Russia has the era of great power peace has come to an end? History tells us this could have disastrous implications. The National Interest published an excerpt of senior fellow Charles Edel and Hal Brands' new book The Lessons of Tragedy outlining the end of this peace. They say the warning light is flashing and call for leaders to recognise the dire consequences of leaving it unattended. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Former Australian treasurer Peter Costello says that when faced with a choice between the strategic security of the United States and the economic prosperity of China, Australia would always side with security. This comes as the United States is looking for support from allies for its tough economic policy on China. In a piece published for Young Australians in International Affairs, USSC's corporate engagement officer Freya Zemek makes the counterpoint to Costello, arguing that Australia's economy is too dependent on China for Australia to back the US economic crackdown to the hilt. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Australian policymakers stand to learn a lot from the US research and development (R&D) sector. In particular the Small Business Innovation Research Program, implemented in 1982, has revolutionised the research and development sector in the United States. Non-resident fellow Don Scott-Kemis writes in InnovationAus.com that the Australian government needs its own unique R&D program for small businesses, one that links funding to demand from both the public and private sectors. READ MORE HERE.

I appreciate the energy you showed when I got up here. Save it a little longer, I may need it in a few weeks.

Former Vice President Joe Biden teases possible 2020 run
 (International Association of Fire Fighters' annual legislative conference)
12 March 2019

ANALYSIS

What the changing of the guard in Congress means for Asia policy

Dougal Robinson
Non-resident fellow, Foreign Policy and Defence Program

In Washington, personnel is policy. The midterm elections heralded a wholesale turnover in chairs of the committees most important to Australia. Former Republican senators and committee chairs Bob Corker (Foreign Relations) and Orrin Hatch (Finance) retired at the midterms, while John McCain (Armed Services) passed away shortly beforehand. Their Republican replacements at this stage lack the same stature or preparedness to lead on international policy.

However, this could change as the chairmen grow into their roles, and are encouraged by prominent senators like Mitt Romney, who are expected to criticise President Trump when he challenges long-held foreign policy positions. Democrats took the House at the midterms, and with it the chairman’s gavel on every committee and consequent power to conduct oversight and investigations.

Most congressional interventions in national security issues emanate from congressional committees, especially the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. Committee chairs, in concert with the ranking member (the most senior representative on a committee from the minority party in that chamber) determine the agenda for the committee, oversee hearings on topics of their choice and schedule votes in committee that serve as a gatekeeper to legislation reaching the floor of the whole House or Senate.

Committees are an important test of the political will of both Democrats and Republicans; co-operation between the chairman and ranking member is typically required to achieve bipartisan consensus on policy within committee, and a degree of bipartisanship in committee is usually necessary for a bill to pass the whole House or Senate. However, given that bipartisan legislation is increasingly hard to achieve, US allies like Australia often also seek progress on Capitol Hill by working with specific members who are not committee leaders but are nonetheless influential on foreign policy.

Two important, cross-cutting personnel trends in Congress in this regard are the loss of senior Asia-focused leaders in the Senate, coupled with a rise in the number of young representatives with national security experience. The passing of Senator John McCain last year represented the end of an era of prominent, powerful Asia champions in Congress.

In the 1990s and 2000s there were three towering figures: McCain and his long-serving colleagues Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) and Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii), both of whom were first elected to the Senate in the 1960s and spent decades representing Pacific-facing states hosting major military facilities. A range of relatively junior senators like Dan Sullivan, Cory Gardner, Joni Ernst, Marco Rubio, Ed Markey and Chris Coons have shown considerable interest in national security and Asia issues, but their influence pales in comparison with recent giants of the Senate on foreign policy and Asia.

For an Australia that wants an Asia-focused United States, the loss of McCain is significant insofar as it represents a diminution of the framing power of Congress to reassure allies and lead Senate debates.

However, the midterms resulted in a notable increase in the number of young, outspoken, representatives with experience in the national security community. The freshmen class of representatives includes Tom Malinowski (former Assistant Secretary of State), Abigail Spanberger (CIA), Elissa Slotkin (Pentagon official), Andy Kim (National Security Council staffer) and veteran Dan Crenshaw, who has already developed a significant public profile.

They have joined a range of young representatives with national security experience, including Mike Gallagher, Adam Kinzinger, Elise Stefanik, Jimmy Panetta and Stephanie Murphy. These members are much more familiar with foreign policy issues than most of their counterparts and will therefore look to play an active role in Congress and the media to build their profile and shape policy debate.

However, their impact on and attention to national security issues will be limited by the fact that they are relatively junior and, more importantly, will focus primarily on the domestic issues most critical to their 2020 re-election campaigns.

This is an excerpt from 'The new Congress and US Asia policy'. Read the full policy brief here.

DIARY

The week ahead

• 12-13 March: 30th anniversary of the World Wide Web.
   

• Wednesday, 13 March: US Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing to examine "a new approach for an era of United States-China competition".
   

• Thursday, 14 March: President Trump will host Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar at the White House.
   

• Tuesday, 19 March: President Trump is scheduled to welcome Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to the White House.

EVENT

Microsoft President Brad Smith in conversation

VIDEO

US Ambassador to Australia A.B. Culvahouse arrives in Canberra

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#TimApple

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