10 JUNE

Fear and fallout

Following an extraordinary fortnight where a worldwide pandemic has been trumped in the media by protests and riots, the fallout from recent escalations and the pandemic itself are starting to be made clear. Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has confirmed that the Australian economy is in recession for the first time in 29 years. US stock markets have both tanked and rallied, leading the Australian dollar on a whirlwind journey. What looked like a chapter in the US trade war with China is looking more and more like a new Cold War with Australia caught in the middle. The pandemic has wrought far more than financial havoc on the Australian and US economies – it has subverted civil liberties, exacerbated inequality and killed hundreds of thousands across the globe.

Even before restrictions had lifted in much of the United States, the death of George Floyd triggered widespread protests. The pressure cooker of the pandemic has resulted in reactions that would have seemed unthinkable two weeks ago. Calls for systemic change resulted in a move by Minneapolis to defund their police force. Protests in the United States motivated protes in Australia Australia, with the Sydney Black Lives Matter protest being banned by the NSW Supreme Court and then authorised by the NSW Court of Appeal mere minutes before the protest started. And protesters in Australia are now accused of delaying the lifting of restrictions and further hurting the economy.

The 14-day incubation period means both the United States and Australia are waiting to start to get an indication of the damage. However, if the last fortnight has taught anything, it is that anything can happen in 14 days, so the shared US-Australian values of liberty and equality are critical in these uncertain times.

NEWS WRAP

To defend or defund?

Activists push for defunding of police
Protestors across the United States are rallying against police brutality and are calling for widespread reform of US law enforcement. But what would it mean to defund police departments? READ MORE HERE
Protests spark concerns of pandemic second wave
While rallies against police brutality have dominated recent news, protests are still taking place amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. Will the mass demonstrations impact coronavirus infection rates? READ MORE HERE
Short-lived boost in stock market and business confidence
An early week stock market surge boosted confidence about recovering from the coronavirus-sparked downturn, though it was short-lived with the US stock index again retreating from positive territory. What can we expect from a post-pandemic economic recovery? READ MORE HERE
Protests signal dwindling prospects for peaceful election
As protests raging across America, the state of US democratic processes are being called into question, with US Studies Centre CEO Simon Jackman saying he’s “never been more pessimistic” about the “prospect of a free, fair and peaceful election”. How will democracy fare as citizens rally ahead of polling day? READ MORE HERE
COVID-19 fallout catalyses talks of Cold War II
Non-Resident Senior Fellow Stephen Loosely AM points to “unquestioned similarities” between the Cold War and the current international political climate dominated by US-China tensions and COVID-19. Have we entered into 'Cold War II'? READ MORE HERE
US protests won't necessarily translate into Democratic votes
With the November election fast approaching, some are beginning to question whether the recent surge of Black Lives Matter protests could translate into Democratic votes, though Research Associate Elliott Brennan argues the the Biden campaign will have to tread carefully to keep protesters interested in traditional democratic institutions. How could the recent unrest play into the US presidential election? READ MORE HERE

Only by adopting a new path — which means, in truth, returning to the original path of our founding ideals — will we again be a country admired and respected at home and abroad.

General James Mattis (ret)
Retired United States Marine Corp General and 26th US Secretary of Defense
T he Atlantic
3 June, 2020

ANALYSIS

A necessary reckoning for the United States of America

Dr Charles Edel
S enior Fellow

In case anyone was in doubt, the extraordinarily painful events of the past few weeks should remind the world that America is a land of contradictions. In the words of Abraham Lincoln, America was a nation "conceived in liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal". From the beginning, Americans have always seen their country as an idea as much as a place. This idea had universal aspirations and demanded that even as Americans struggled to expand liberty at home, they would also promote it abroad. Over the past two and a half centuries, America has inspired others in their quest for freedom and human dignity, and it has often supported nations and individuals around the world seeking democracy and human rights.

But from the very outset, there has been another story, equally powerful in shaping the course of American history - and it is one founded in oppression. "To drag a man in fetters into the grand illuminated temple of liberty," Frederick Douglas proclaimed in 1852, "and call upon him to join you in joyous anthems, were inhuman mockery and sacrilegious irony." Predating the birth of the nation, slavery began in America in 1619, and became woven into the country's fabric. Its legacy shaped the development of America's politics, the nature of its economy, and the thrust of its foreign policy. And it cast an indelible stain on American society. In words that are acutely relevant today, Martin Luther King Jr. declared in 1967 that "we must face the hard fact that many Americans would like to have a nation which is a democracy for white Americans but simultaneously a dictatorship over black Americans".

The light of liberty and the darkness of oppression are the twin stands of American history. As America confronts a world where authoritarian powers, led by Beijing and Moscow, have become more repressive at home and increasingly aggressive abroad, America is also in the midst of a deep, painful and necessary reckoning over the systemic racism that permeates its society, disfigures its institutions, and debases its ideals.

This past week has offered a stark reminder of the danger of addressing one without the other. Promoting democracy abroad without confronting glaring deficits at home exposes the United States to charges of hypocrisy. It marks the American model as one that is unattractive at best, and pernicious at worst. And it means that the country's power and influence will diminish as its internal problems consume its attention and resources.

But turning away from the world is just as problematic for the cause of liberty. Doing so would give a free pass to Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and other authoritarian leaders aspiring for totalitarian control. It would tilt the balance of power in Asia and Europe in Beijing and Moscow's favour, inviting further aggression. And it would abandon those fighting against oppression around the world and hoping for a strong champion in the United States.

COVID-19: BY THE NUMBERS

Cases per million: US 6,022 | Australia 291

All eyes are on the COVID-19 increases following the loosening of restrictions and protests in both countries. The curve has flattened significantly in both countries but is still increasing more in the United States than Australia.

At present, there is no significant increase in cases in either the United States or Australia that can be attributed to protests, but the impact of large demonstrations on infection rates may become clearer with time.

VIRTUAL EVENT

Election Watch: US Politics Web Series

A monthly review from Australia

The Perth USAsia Centre and United States Studies Centre are pleased to launch a monthly web series in which our CEOs will review the latest in US politics with a focus on the upcoming US election and US-Indo-Pacific relations.

Join USSC CEO Simon Jackman and Perth USAC CEO Gordon Flake in conversation for 30-minutes of insights covering the top stories in US politics from an Australian perspective.

Future episodes will be broadcast live each month and available online for catch-up. Keep an eye on our social media platforms to stay up to date.

WHEN:
Friday 12 June 2020, 1pm AEST

COST:
Free, but registration is essential

REGISTER NOW

UPCOMING PUBLICATION

Tech wars: US-China technology competition and what it means for Australia

Brendan Thomas-Noone, Research Fellow, Foreign Policy and Defence Program

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