Research Theme I: The low carbon emissions economy
Energy-efficient homes less likely to default
March 15, 2013. The risk of defaulting on a mortgage is 32% lower for homeowners that live in energy-efficient homes, according to a new study by the University of North Carolina – Center for Community Capital. The study, “Home Energy Efficiency and Mortgage Rates,” is the first to try to quantify the connection between a home’s energy efficiency and default risk of the homeowner. To assess whether residential energy efficiency is associated with lower default risks, the report is based on a national sample of about 71,000 single-family home mortgages, and takes into account loan, household, and neighborhood characteristics. The report finds that more efficient houses are
associated with lower default risk and concludes that money saved on energy costs is a factor explaining the lower default risk. It stands to reason that because owners of efficient homes save money on utility bills, they can therefore put those savings toward mortgage payments.
The findings of this study suggest that the US housing market may be well served by considering rules that would improve the accuracy of mortgage underwriting through ensuring that energy costs are considered in the mortgage underwriting process. One approach has been adopted here in Canada already. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)
offers a 10% premium refund on its mortgage loan insurance program, as well as an extended amortization period, to individuals who use CMHC-insured financing to purchase energy efficient homes. The stated purpose of the program is to promote energy conservation and provide initiatives that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Provincially, British Columbians are saving energy and money through participation in the LiveSmart BC program, which offers more than $7,000 in rebates in 54 different areas for energy efficiency. FortisBC’s PowerSense program also offers rebates and financial incentives to make upgrading to energy-saving technologies more affordable.
Research Theme II: Sustainable communities
Annual fuel economy increase one of the best ever
March 17, 2013. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has revealed data
which make 2012 one of the best years since 1975 for annual improvements in fuel economy. Projected manufacturer figures suggest fuel efficiency for 2012-models average 23.8 miles per gallon compared to 22.4 mi/g in 2011. The 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disasters in Japan likely affected this jump due to the fact that there was a significant drop in manufacturing in Japan, a world leader on automobile production. Decreased manufacturing in 2011 may have resulted in the 'annual fuel efficiency increase' in 2011 and consequently this would likely have resulted in increased efficiency in 2012 as production came back on-line. Despite this, fuel efficiency has increased by 16 percent over the past 5 years. Also, the number of vehicles using non-petroleum based fuel was significant enough that the EPA specifically identified them and there is an expectation that more diverse fuel
options will become available in coming years. “Increasing interest in these alternative fuel vehicles is being driven by...high oil prices, concerns about future oil supplies and greenhouse gas emissions”. The US Department of Energy has also said that the US transportation sector has the technical potential to reduce GHG emissions by over 80% by 2050.
Electric and hybrid vehicle sales have increased in BC in the past year. Through LiveSmart BC, the government has been incentivising the purchase of “clean energy vehicles” and charging stations since late 2011 and recently commenced installation of over 10 high-speed charging stations in a number of cities around the Province. The stations will complete the BC portion of the West Coast Green Highway, an agreement
with three American states to ensure electric vehicle charging is available along the West Coast from BC to California. Additionally, charging stations are becoming a more frequent site on the street and an environmentally conscious bakery owner in Colwood has even gone so far as to install an electric vehicle charging station to the side of his bakery, which he powers in part with solar photovoltaic cells on the building’s roof. On March 26, the BC Government announced that the LiveSmart incentive program would be extended for another year, to March 31, 2014.
Research Theme III: Resilient ecosystems
Controlling air pollution may accelerate climate change
March 14, 2013. Since 2006, several research programs across Europe have been collecting and analyzing data on tiny airborne particles, called aerosols. One recently completed initiative was the European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions (EUCAARI). EUCAARI
resulted in several notable achievements including comprehensive databases of the properties and amounts of aerosols over Europe and nearby developing countries. Modeling tools were also developed, providing insight into the interactions between aerosols, clouds, and climate. Some research
indicates that controlling pollution to decrease aerosols –– which can be hazardous to human health –– may actually increase overall warming from greenhouse gases. This is due to the direct and indirect cooling effects of particles. Aerosols block sunlight directly and also affect the whiteness and lifetime of clouds, causing them to reflect more radiation and shield the Earth from some of the sun’s energy. Air pollution control in the future could reduce this cooling effect and increase warming rates beyond those currently experienced.
Research on air quality and climate change feedbacks is continuing in Europe through the Pan-European Gas-AeroSOls-climate Interaction Study (PEGASOS). PEGASOS is focused on five fundamental questions, including how this type of information can be used to influence relevant policy. Air pollution is a transcontinental issue, and regional and international air pollution policies can have significant effects within Canada’s borders. For example, research suggests that over 40% of airborne polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in
coastal British Columbia originate in Asia. Across North America, nearly half of the aerosol inventory derives from Asia and comprises mostly dust, not combustion products. The amount of dust in the atmosphere is dependent on yet another climate change feedback, as hotter and drier conditions may increase the extent of desert regions where such dust originates. In order to be effective, modeling of aerosol and climate change feedbacks must take place at multiple scales: local, regional, intercontinental, and global.
Research Theme IV: Social mobilization
Wind farm health effects may be generated by expectations, rather than exposure
March 1st, 2013. Recent research
into health effects of wind turbines indicates that it may be the public’s expectations of their operation, rather than any direct effects from the turbines themselves, that cause an increase in reported health complaints. In a study conducted at the University of Auckland, researchers tested subaudible sound (infrasound) to determine if there was a pathophysiological link between health effects and wind farms, and the findings are surprising. Study participants were exposed to either infrasound, or a “sham” sound, which is known to have no ill health effects. Participants were then given access to information about potential side effects of infrasound, and then asked to report the effects they felt after exposure. The findings suggest that healthy volunteers, when given information about the expected impacts of infrasound were likely to report symptoms, whether they
were exposed to “sham” sound or infrasound. The study’s findings further suggest that information available on the Internet could serve to create expectations in a ‘real world’ setting, which could explain the link between health complaints and wind farms.
Expectations can play a key role in determining public acceptability of a new technology or industry. In British Columbia, wind farms could play an increasing role in supplying significant power to the grid in the future. At present, BC Hydro
has signed Electricity Purchase Agreements (EPAs) with three wind farms in British Columbia, two of which are operational in the north-central part of the province: Bear Mountain (102 MW capacity) and Dokie Ridge (144 MW capacity). A third wind farm, Krob Hill, near Cape Scott on northern Vancouver Island is under construction and at full capacity will add up to 99 MW of electricity to the grid. Each of these farms is far from residential developments and pose no concerns with respect to perceived health impacts. However, as additional wind power is developed in future in the Province, it will be important to ensure that the public is supplied with accurate, scientifically credible information about wind farms so that expectations don’t lead to erroneous perceptions of health effects.
Research Theme V: Carbon management in BC forests
Two valleys and two stories on the impact of climate change
March 14, 2013. Researchers from Switzerland have found that a two degree rise in global temperatures could have dramatic and varying effects on mountainous forests. Led by researchers from ETH Zurich, the scientists sought to understand how the ecological benefits of forests – such as storing carbon, providing wood, and preventing landslides – might be impacted by a warming climate. They did so using computer simulations and climate scenarios. They compared two valleys, one drier and with a greater elevation range, the other wetter and closer to sea level. The drier valley would be more susceptible to climate change, as the predicted loss of precipitation would harm forests, particularly at lower elevations. The wetter valley may experience an increase in biomass, as warmer temperatures let trees grow longer. A longer growing season would bolster
the ability of the forest to mitigate landslides and avalanches. The scientists concluded that due to the regional variation in the impacts of climate change, managers need to closely consider adaptation strategies, such as forest thinning to help mitigate drought, and planting different mixes of species better suited to warmer temperatures.
Seventy five percent of BC is mountainous, the province has fourteen
distinct tree growth zones, and 60% of the landscape is forested. It is fair to say that the lessons from the valleys of Switzerland – regional variability in climate change and the need to adapt – apply here. Scientists are trying assisted migration and specific projects including planting whitebark pine saplings under the Peak2Peak Gondola on Blackcomb Mountain, in the hopes of saving a tree with a rapidly shifting growing zone. BC is also witnessing first-hand the impacts of a changing climate, from the massive outbreak of mountain pine beetle, to historical levels of forest fires, to dieback of yellow cedars on the North Coast. Recently, the auditor general worried that
the government’s inventory of BC’s forests is incomplete and in need of revision. To understand how different regions will change with a warmer climate, accurate inventory information and high-resolution climate modeling will be required.
Also in the news
German research institute pulls out of Canadian tar sands project
Warmer climate boosts northern crops but the bad soon outweighs the good
Obama will use Nixon-era law to fight climate change
EEA report highlights shipping’s impact on air quality and climate change
Computer models show how deep carbon could return to earth's surface
Transportation study reveals potential for deep cuts to petroleum use and carbon emissions
Reducing fuel consumption of truck engines
