23 MAY

North Korea dialogue in doubt

There is a "substantial" chance that the US-North Korea summit won't go ahead as planned on 12 June, US President Donald Trump said Tuesday. The president made the comments before meeting with the South Korean president Moon Jae-in at the White House.

The doubt was cast after North Korean officials said they would never unilaterally surrender its weapons and threatened to pull out of the summit after Trump's national security advisor John Bolton insisted the United States would work off the "Libya model" –thereby leading the North Koreans to believe this implied regime change.

Trump labeled China's President Xi Jinping a "world class poker player" and insisted that China encouraged North Korea's hardened stance to gain leverage in concurrent trade negotiations. Trump said there are conditions that North Korea must meet before the summit goes ahead, but hinted that unilateral denuclearisation may not be one of them. The president told reporters "it would certainly be better if it were all in one", but continued “does it have to be? I don’t think I want to totally commit myself".  

A commemorative coin for the event was released this week by the White House Communications Agency and derided for referring to the North Korean leader as "Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un".

NEWS WRAP

Corker balks

• US Senator Bob Corker was offered the job as ambassador to Australia, but reportedly turned it down. The retiring Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman will complete his term as a senator in 2019, but says he has unfinished business to address before then. His disinterest is the latest tribulation in the search for someone to fill the role. Read more in our analysis section below.
   

• China and the United States seem to have reached a trade truce, with Chinese negotiators in Washington agreeing to "substantially reduce" the trade deficit with the United States. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said a trade war was "on hold" after satisfactory negotiations, but Trump's economic advisor Larry Kudlow maintains tariffs are still a key negotiating tool in this dispute. Director of USSC's Trade and Investment Program Stephen Kirchner wrote in The Australian Financial Review today that the truce lacks substance as there will remain key issues between the United States and China so long as the former is trying to negotiate specific trade outcomes rather than the rules of trade. READ MORE HERE.
   
• The Department of Justice (DOJ) has expanded its presidential probe to include potential campaign interference by intelligence agencies. President Trump demanded the expansion after reports that an FBI informant interacted with Trump campaign aides. Officials from the DOJ and the FBI will allow two Republican lawmakers to review classified information about the confidential FBI source – a meeting at which Democrats insist they should be represented. The allowance comes after at least 18 Republican lawmakers signed a resolution calling for a second special counsel to be appointed to investigate whether there were any political motives influencing the conduct of the Russia probe during the election campaign. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Barack and Michelle Obama have signed a multi-year deal with Netflix. Content from the former first couple will be distributed under the company they created called 'Higher Ground Productions'. It's expected that the first content from the partnership will roll out in 2019 with Barack Obama saying he hopes they can "cultivate and curate the talented, inspiring, creative voices who are able to promote greater empathy and understanding between peoples". READ MORE HERE.
   
• Forget the stereotype of the millennial choosing to work in the gig economy for the flexibility it offers – American chief economist for the world's biggest online job site, Indeed.com, told the audience at a USSC panel last night that data indicates the gig economy is increasingly populated by an older, highly-skilled cohort with specialised experience, many of whom can’t get a job elsewhere. Tuesday's event, which looked at the future of work in Australia and the United States, also featured the University of Sydney Business School's Professor Rae Cooper and director of the USSC's Innovation and Entrepreneurship Program Claire McFarland. READ MORE HERE.

It’s been happening everywhere. I’ve always felt it would eventually happen here too.

Paige Curry
(Santa Fe High School student when asked whether she expected a shooting at her school)
18 May 2018

ANALYSIS

The ambassadorial sweepstakes

Dougal Robinson
Research fellow, Foreign Policy and Defence Program 

There’s been much ado about the absence of a US Ambassador to Australia.

While the 11th hour re-routing of Harry Harris to Seoul captured attention, the underlying issue is that it will be many months yet before a Senate-confirmed nominee moves into the Ambassador’s residence in Yarralumla.

Ambassadorial absenteeism should not prompt undue panic. Charge D’Affaires Jim Carouso has been at the helm of the US Embassy for 18 months and is highly respected by Australian politicians and bureaucrats. Moreover, new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is at this stage both trusted by President Trump and re-invigorating State, which will help Carouso and the embassy cut through in Washington.

But a well-qualified ambassador should be chosen as soon as possible to demonstrate the Trump Administration’s commitment to the US-Australia alliance.

This is a hard task, because there are simply no obvious candidates for the role. The Trump administration has four broad categories from which to choose an ambassador: i) a politician, ii) a presidential friend, business executive or campaign donor, iii) a military figure, or iv) a civilian foreign policy professional.

Trump’s team seems to be fishing in the first pond, eager to put a prominent politician in Canberra after the Harris about-face. The two most qualified retiring Republican senators, Foreign Relations chairman Bob Corker and Finance chairman Orrin Hatch, are not interested in the role, with Hatch’s spokesperson offering the rather colourful appraisal that the 84-year-old Utahn looked forward to “retirement filled with early bird specials at all-you-can-eat buffets and long walks through Costco”.

Three retiring members of Congress might be in the mix: Arizona Senator Jeff Flake, and the current and immediate past chairs of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Ed Royce and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Yet each has characteristics likely to prevent either an approach by the Trump administration, or their acceptance of an ambassadorial offer. Flake and Ros-Lehtinen have both been Trump critics, while Royce’s wife is an assistant secretary at the State Department, based in Washington, DC.

A politician would be an unusual choice – the only person to leave Congress to serve as ambassador to Australia was Pete Jarman, a six-term Alabama representative who in 1949 traded Washington and the Deep South for Canberra.

If recent history is anything to go by, the next ambassador will be a presidential friend, businessman or campaign donor. Republican presidents have form: George W. Bush chose two lawyers and business associates as his ambassadors, his father a campaign donor, and Ronald Reagan’s second ambassador Bill Lane was a magazine owner and horse-riding buddy. The Trump administration has nominated this type of ambassador for US allies and partners as significant as Israel, the United Kingdom, France and Japan – but Canberra isn’t Paris or Tokyo.

Military figures may be under consideration for the role, such as Scott Swift, the outgoing Pacific Fleet Commander, but it is unclear if he wants to move to Canberra. And, regardless of President Trump’s affinity for generals, he has nominated few military figures – except Harris – to serve as ambassadors.

A civilian foreign policy professional might seem a logical choice. The obvious option would be to upgrade Carouso to the ambassadorship (which would still require Senate confirmation). But this has been possible since the Trump administration took office in January 2017, and was presumably canvassed after the Harris withdrawal. The more reports emerge that people like Corker and Hatch are not interested in the role, the less likely the ‘Carouso option’. 

Other critical factors are working against expert ambassadorial aspirants. The Trump administration has nominated only a handful of career State Department officials and highly-qualified outsiders to top posts. So long as President Trump remains adamantly opposed to the ‘Never Trumpers’, we can rule out the Bush administration alumni – such as Michael Green, Richard Fontaine, Dan Blumenthal and Patrick Cronin – who know Australia well.

In the ambassadorial sweepstakes, it’s not easy to pick the winner.

DIARY

The week ahead

• Friday, 25 May: Irish referendum on the right to abortion.
   

• Monday, 28 May: Memorial Day in the United States.
   

• Tuesday, 29 May: Starbucks will close all US stores in the afternoon to conduct racial-bias training for staff.
   

• 29 May-June 1: Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Senate Budget Estimates in Parliament House, Canberra.

EVENT

Walter V Robinson: Spotlight on the resurgence of American investigative reporting

VIDEO

Bill Gates on meeting President Trump

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

#FBIprobe

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