7 OCTOBER

Hopes for a healthier debate

The first Biden vs Trump debate was only a week ago, but given the developments of the past seven days, it feels more distant than that. On Friday, President Trump announced he was diagnosed with COVID-19. The next day he was admitted to Walter Reed Hospital. After a three-night stay, including a motorcade outing, he left the hospital. All of this has happened before the next major campaign event – tomorrow’s vice-presidential debate. As Mike Pence and Kamala Harris face off expectations are for a drastically different debate both in terms of tone and style and in terms of COVID safety measures. Join the Centre for a VP debate debrief on Friday as our experts analyse what worked and what didn’t, as well as what it will mean for the rest of the campaign. You can also tune in on Tuesday 13 October for a USSC webinar with Greg Sheridan, Foreign Editor at the Australian and Zoe Daniel, former ABC Washington Bureau Chief to discuss the implications of Trump's COVID diagnosis.

While much of the news still centres on the US election, the impact of the pandemic continues to make waves around the world. The delayed Australian Budget is one of the strongest measures of how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted Australia and how the government is responding. In June, the Centre's Bolstering Resilience report recommended acceleration and augmentation of military collaboration (especially maritime) in the Indo-Pacific. The budget that was handed down yesterday includes funding for new maritime defence projects in the southwest Pacific. In August, Senior Fellow Jared Mondschein released a report on the role of US innovation in securing Australia's economic future calling for the maintenance and stabilisation of the R&D Tax Incentives (RDTI). This recommendation was echoed in Budget 2020-21 with a $2 billion boost to RDTI. Further analysis of both pandemic impacts and the US election will feature in upcoming Centre reports.

VIDEO

Election Watch | US politics web series

Did you miss the latest episode of Election Watch, the United States Studies Centre and Perth USAsia Centre's US politics web series? This month's instalment featured our October special guests - former Republican Senator Jeff Flake and US foreign policy expert Dr Gorana Grgic - alongside hosts Professor Simon Jackman and Professor Gordon Flake. Watch the full discussion HERE.

Catch this and other recent webinars on the USSC YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

Per-plexi-ng debate

Pence gives in to plexiglass shield demands for VP debate
The upcoming vice-presidential debate will see the political divide become a physical one after Mike Pence agreed to have plexiglass shields put up between himself, Senator Kamala Harris and debate moderator Susan Page. While Vice President Pence has tested negative for COVID-19, the negotiations come after President Trump, the First Lady and several senior White House officials tested positive, including Stephen Miller and Kayleigh McEnany. READ MORE HERE
Trump's COVID diagnosis throws election into further disarray
Just over a month out from the election President Trump announced that he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for COVID-19. Writing in the Sydney Morning Herald, Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe said the news, like much of Donald Trump's presidency, was "unprecedented". READ MORE HERE
Critical supply chains a critical issue for the Quad
Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne is in Tokyo for talks with her US, Japan and India counterparts in a bid to strengthen cooperation between the Quad countries. In an interview with Guardian Australia, Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dr John Lee said the fact ministers were meeting in person during the pandemic "is a reflection of the seriousness with which the Quad is treated." READ MORE HERE
McConnell plans to confirm Supreme Court pick before election
President Trump's Supreme Court nominee, Federal Appellate Judge Amy Coney Barrett, is on track to be confirmed before Election Day in November despite two Republicans on the Judiciary Committee having contracted COVID-19, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said. McConnell also clarified that the confirmation hearing is scheduled to take place on 12 October while Senators Thom Tillis and Mike Lee will have the option of attending the hearings in person or remotely. READ MORE HERE

The potential for what COVID can do is very, very much
different from influenza

Dr Anthony Fauci
NBC News interview
6 October 2020

ANALYSIS

Why the US vice presidential debate matters more now than ever before

Jared Mondschein
S enior Fellow

In many ways, a vice president’s most important constitutional duty is simply to stay alive. Beyond breaking ties in the US Senate, the vice president essentially has no real constitutional duties beyond replacing a deceased or incapacitated president.

Such matters of life or death could not weigh heavier in the upcoming presidential election, which features the oldest candidates of all time — President Donald Trump is 74 and his opponent, Joe Biden, is 77.

And Trump, as we all know, was hospitalised in recent days after contracting COVID-19 — and, according to his doctor, is still not “out of the woods” when it comes to making a full recovery.

With the health of Trump (and Biden, who has so far tested negative for COVID) at the forefront, it’s even more vital for Americans and the world to learn more about Vice President Mike Pence and his fellow vice presidential candidate, Senator Kamala Harris, as they meet in their only debate this week (Thursday AEDT).

VIRTUAL EVENT

Vice-presidential debate debrief

The 2020 campaign continues to break norms and defy expectations. With the bickering and banter from the first debate still resounding, how will Vice President Pence and Senator Harris handle their encounter? Will policy and ideology feature more prominently in the Vice-Presidential debate? Will this presumably less personal, more substantive debate yield insights about the likely policy priorities of either a second Trump administration or a Biden administration? And if so, what are the implications for Australia?

To discuss these issues, please join us for a webinar event with USSC Lecturer in US Politics and Foreign Policy Dr Gorana Grgic, Non-Resident Fellow Jennifer Hunt, and Non-Resident Fellow Kim Hoggard in conversation with Associate Professor in American Politics Brendon O’Connor.

WHEN:
Friday, 9 October, 1pm AEDT (Sydney) 11am AWST (Perth)
Thursday, 8 October, 10.00-11.00pm EDT (Washington, DC)

COST:
Free, but registration is essential

REGISTER NOW

BY THE NUMBERS

Flu vs COVID-19 mortality rates

US 0.1% : 2.8% | Australia 0.5% : 3.3%

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the mortality rate for influenza in the United States from the last year is about 0 .1 per cent, a fraction of Australia’s 0 .5 per cent.

While the data for COVID-19 mortality is currently combined with statistics for influenza and pneumonia, John Hopkins reports the United State’s mortality rate as 2.8 per cent, and while the overall number of cases are still much higher than Australia, the overall mortality rate has now dropped below Australia’s 3.3 per cent.