Research Theme I: The low carbon emissions economy
Frackers losing $1.5 billion each year to leaks
April 5, 2013. The practice of hydraulic fracking has created a surge in natural gas supply across North America. However, at every stage of the fracking process - from resource extraction at the wellhead, to processing gas, to transportation through pipelines that supply the gas for end users - methane leaks into the atmosphere. A new study
by the World Resources Institute (WRI) suggests that these sources of methane leakage pose a massive threat to the climate––methane is a powerful greenhouse gas. Solving the problem would appear to be relatively simple: repair or replace leaky pipes. Through this investment natural gas producers could also save roughly $1.5 billion worth of methane per year. However, incentives are misaligned, as independent operators own the pipelines and energy producers own the gas. The situation is exacerbated by a lack of both efficient leakage detection technology and sufficient monitoring regulation, so companies don’t have a strong incentive to address the problem.
British Columbia’s natural gas industry is currently the second largest in Canada and proposed plans for expansion would nearly triple the amount
of natural gas produced by 2020. But while fracking has set the stage for a dramatic increase in natural gas supply, it has also dramatically increased the potential for leakage. The industry adheres to principles and regulations that guide operations and the government has created an online registry to enable access to information about the location of fracking activities. Concerns remain, however, that expanding production will jeopardize BC’s ability to meet its legislated GHG targets and protect water quality. As concerns extend to water consumption and gas leakage detection, government needs to advance policies that guide energy industry practices toward greater environmental sustainability.
Research Theme II: Sustainable communities
Fertilizer management to reduce GHGs
April 3, 2013. The amount of nitrous oxide (N2O, also known colloquially as ‘laughing gas’) in the atmosphere is increasing due to human activities such as the extensive use of fertilizer for agriculture. As a potent greenhouse gas, there is a need to determine what contributes to the production of N2O and how to effectively manage and control it. A recent study
from the University California Davis has shown that the production in soils of N2O, which results from the oxidation of ammonium within the soils, increased significantly when oxygen concentrations in the soils reached low levels. The study concluded that when the oxygen content of soils is scarce ––which can be a function of poor aeration or specific soil structures or both––application of nitrogen fertilizers like urea should be avoided. The results “imply that management practices that increase soil aeration, e.g., reducing compaction and enhancing soil structure, together with careful selection of fertilizer sources and/or nitrification inhibitors, could decrease N2O production in agricultural soils”.
Concern about environmental degradation due to excess fertilizer use is significant in British Columbia. Emissions from agriculture, which include nitrous oxide and methane in addition to carbon dioxide, contribute four percent of BC’s greenhouse gas emissions and come from a range of sources, including livestock, manure, fertilizer applications, farm buildings and engine emissions. The BC Agriculture and Food Climate Action Initiative works to increase awareness of the implications of climate change and responds to and addresses climate change issues and opportunities by developing tools for farmers. At the other end of the spectrum, BC Climate Action plan Toolkits have been prepared by the Ministry of Agriculture and Lands for local governments describing the role that they can play in assisting the agriculture sector with GHG emissions reduction. Among the tools in the
kit are the promotion of smart land use, on-farm energy production, and encouragement for farmers to participate in management practice programs.
Research Theme III: Resilient ecosystems
Economic impacts of climate change felt in the forestry sector
April 1, 2013. In an article published in Nature Climate Change, researchers predicted losses in the economic value
of Europe’s forests due to climate change. Using IPCC climate scenarios to model changes in temperature and precipitation across the region, the authors mapped the projected ranges of forest species groups in 2100. Some commercially valuable species are expected to move northward and lose as much as 60% of their present range, while other, less valuable species groups could nearly double their ranges under the same conditions. The predicted ranges and current commercial value of each species were used to calculate land expectation values (LEV) and researchers estimated losses of over €190 billion (over $250 billion CAD) by the year 2100. Areas of uncertainty that could change this estimate include the adaptability of tree species, the probability of dynamic market responses to changes in timber availability, and adaptive measures taken by landowners.
People in BC are well aware of the need to adapt forestry practices to the effects of climate change. The mountain pine beetle epidemic, intensified by climate change, has affected an estimated 18.1 million hectares of BC’s forests. The federal and provincial governments have committed over $1.2 billion to ‘battle’
the epidemic and mitigate its impacts. In August 2012, the Special Committee on Timber Supply, which was commissioned to investigate and make recommendations on the mid-term timber supply in BC, released its findings. The report suggests that the BC timber supply will be drastically lower in 15-20 years, when dead trees can no longer be harvested for timber. The Committee made numerous recommendations based on community consultation and technical briefings, including a shift to area-based tenure and a focus on utilizing more fiber, for bio-energy production for example. The BC Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations released an
action plan in response to the recommendations, though proposed changes to legislation have recently been met with opposition.
Research Theme IV: Social mobilization
Protect winter sport from climate change, athletes urge
April 9th, 2013. The shorter and warmer winters caused by climate change are impacting winter sports; at least that’s the message of 75 Olympic Medal Champions and other athletes. In an open letter
addressed to President Obama, the athletes acknowledge the impact climate change is having to their sport, and the economy. “Without a doubt, winter is in trouble,” the April 9th, 2013 letter reads. “… at risk are the economies of tourist-dependent states where winter tourism generates $12.2 billion in revenue annually, supports 212,000 jobs and $7 billion in salaries. Those are the jobs and businesses owned by our friends and families, generators of billions in federal and state income.” The letter urges President Obama to keep the promises he made in the State of the Union address to fight climate change, and suggests rejecting the Keystone XL pipeline proposal as one way to demonstrate commitment to the issue.
Climate Change is also impacting the winter sports industry in Canada. A 2009 report
by the David Suzuki Foundation argued that if the country failed to take firm action, by 2050 many winter activities, from Olympic Sports to ice fishing, would be at risk. The report further highlighted that Canadian winters have seen a greater average temperature rise than any other season, with an average increase of 2.3 degrees Celsius over a 50-year period. Analysis in the report estimates that as of 2009, Canada’s ski sector contributed over $800 million to the economy each year. However the impact of climate change on winter activities isn’t only a future concern. In Gatineau Park, located just outside of Ottawa, for example, it has been reported
that the park is experiencing “shorter seasons, less ice, more slush”. In March 2012, a sudden thaw led to temperatures in the mid-20s, and moved the park from ski season to cycling conditions in just six days. The skating rink established on Rideau Canal, located in Ottawa, was closed in 2012 after just 55 days, one of the shortest seasons on record. When the canal first opened to skating, it had an average of 70 annual operating days. While these examples are weather events and not technically climate changes, they do provide examples of what a warmer future will present. Canadian winters will not be what they used to be.
Research Theme V: Carbon management in BC forests
Extreme weather threatens forest carbon sinks
April 9, 2013. Scientists gathered in Europe to share insights
on the effects of extreme weather on terrestrial carbon systems. The heat wave in Europe in 2003 for example resulted in the release of carbon from Europe’s forests equivalent to four years of uptake. Other extreme weather events, like drought, can negatively impact forests. During periods of water scarcity, plants are more vulnerable to pathogens and insects. During the 2003 heat wave caterpillars destroyed swathes of Mediterranean oak in southern France. Every year terrestrial ecosystems absorb a quarter of the carbon that humans emit from burning fossil fuels, but a warming climate is likely to produce more extreme weather – more storms, more heat waves, and more droughts – that could result in intense feedback loops that directly involve the terrestrial carbon cycle.
Over the last two decades, British Columbia has experienced a catastrophic release of carbon from its forests as a result of the spread of the Mountain Pine Beetle, an epidemic that was induced in large part by a series of warm winters that allowed the beetle to proliferate. However, feedback loops from climate change aren’t necessarily all negative. Longer, warmer, growing seasons could benefit forests at higher latitudes and over time northern tundra could evolve into vast new forests. But these potential new sinks are by no means guaranteed and sailing into the future will not be smooth– a tundra warm enough to grow trees will have released huge amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, as permafrost melts. Moreover, scientists predict that global warming makes extreme weather events more likely. Such events disrupt terrestrial carbon cycles in unpredictable ways, and
greatly complicate stewardship of existing forests. Effective management at scale of large carbon stocks like BC’s forests––that span 11 degrees of latitude and multiple biogeoclimatic zones that will change as warming continues––presents major economic, ecologic, sociological and political challenges for the Province that are currently being addressed by researchers supported by the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions.
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