6 MAY

The best of times, the worst of times

Special New York Edition

“I don’t mean to paint a bleak picture, but we can’t be Pollyanna-ish with the numbers that we’re facing and what people are dealing with and wrestling with. There’s no one living in New York City who does not know someone who has died. I have watched body bags come out of buildings across the street into ambulances. It is touching everywhere and everyone.” Amb. John Berry (ret.)

The American Australian Association (AAA) helped establish the United States Studies Centre and the two organisations have supported one another ever since. Last week continued that tradition. In a special webinar event, AAA President and former US Ambassador to Australia John Berry provided a perspective we needed to hear. He painted a vivid picture of his lived experience in New York during the pandemic.

The best of times? The nightly unifying cheer across the city to celebrate the frontline workers who are keeping the city going. The worst of times? The presence of death everywhere, visible in the body bags and refrigerator trucks being used as temporary mortuaries because there are not enough places to hold the bodies.

In Australia, it is hard to comprehend what's happening. Not just as an island-nation on the other side of the world, but as we stay in our homes, we may feel distant from the suffering. Ambassador Berry’s firsthand account is a reminder that during this difficult time for so many, it is important to pay close attention to what we hear from those most effected.

This issue of The 45th is a closer look at New York, the city at the epicentre of the COVID-19 crisis, with whom we have a special relationship. To view Ambassador Berry's speech on New York, go to the video section below. To read The Guardian’s reflection on his words and the US-Australia relationship, click here.

NEWS WRAP

No rest for the city that never sleeps

De Blasio sets eyes on September return to normalcy
New York Mayor Bill de Blasio has said he anticipates the city will be on track to reopen by the start of September, noting an easing of restrictions for some businesses prior to then. Speaking to Spectrum News NY1, de Blasio said he believes New York is “on a good track” to get things “up and running and as much normal as we can by the beginning of September when school begins”. Stay-at-home orders currently remain in place through 15 May, though state Governor Andrew Cuomo recently outlined plans for reopening the heavily impacted city. READ MORE HERE
Judge orders New York Democratic primary to go ahead
Democratic presidential primaries in New York State will go ahead in June after a federal judge overturned the April decision to cancel the vote amid coronavirus concerns. Judge Analisa Torres of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York made the ruling in response to a lawsuit filed by former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang. Democrats on the state board of elections voted to have presidential candidates who had suspended their campaigns removed from the ballot, leaving only Joe Biden, due to the outbreak. READ MORE HERE
NYC reports 15 cases of rare disease in children
At least 15 children have been admitted to hospital in New York City with a rare inflammatory disease possibly linked to the novel coronavirus. Kawasaki disease, primarily affecting children under the age of five, causes artery walls to become inflamed, resulting in fever, skin peeling and joint pain. New York’s health department said four tested positive for COVID-19, and six of the ten who tested negative showed signs they had previously been infected with COVID-19. The city's health commissioner said cases had also been identified in Boston and Philadelphia, but they’re “not sure what to make of this yet”. READ MORE HERE
New York tenants call for urgent rental relief
Business closures and the shortfall in work in the beleaguered city has meant that around 40 per cent of New Yorkers can’t pay a single month’s rent. The financial pressures felt by tenants has sparked widespread calls for a rental freeze. May Day was due date for rental payments and nearly 200,000 tenants moved to stop submitting payments to landlords in what is likely to be the biggest rental strike in US history. READ MORE HERE

I'm glad that a federal judge agreed that depriving millions of New Yorkers of the right to vote was wrong. I hope that the New York Board of Elections takes from this ruling a newfound appreciation of their role in safeguarding democracy

Andrew Yang, former Democratic presidential candidate
Twitter statement on federal ruling to go ahead with New York Democratic Primaries
6 May 2020

ANALYSIS

Women, low-income workers suffer unequal burden of COVID-19

David Uren
Non-Resident Fellow

COVID-19 has had unequal impacts on industry, with low-income and female workers suffering the greatest losses. This trend has increased significance in New York City, where 18 per cent of jobs are in the personal services and information industry and 12 per cent are in the hospitality and leisure industries. As a whole, these industries are paid lower wages and employ more women. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its employment report for April on 8 May, but early indicators show concerning trends emerging.

In Australia the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) survey, which is based on payroll data collected by the Australian Taxation Office and published 20 April, shows that in the three weeks after the first 100 cases of coronavirus were registered, the hospitality industry shed 26 per cent of its workforce, or 240,000 workers, while the recreation and arts industries lost 19 per cent, or 47,000 workers. These estimates are likely conservative as only 70 per cent of small businesses are registered with the ATO payroll system. Both industries are among the lowest paid, with average weekly incomes of just A$638 in the hospitality sector and A$989 in hospitality and the arts.

While low-paid industries that employ more women have suffered major losses, the pain isn’t shared equally across all industries. The impact of the COVID-19 recession is reduced for those able to work from home, including many in the business services sector, but few in the household services.

One large survey, canvassing a total of almost 17,000 respondents in both the United States and the United Kingdom, found that women and workers without a university degree were significantly more likely to have lost their job. Women in the United States were seven per cent more likely to have lost their job than men, while those without a degree were eight per cent more likely. The need to care for children unable to attend school coupled with entrenched gender roles may partly explain the higher share of women reporting unemployment, though women are also more heavily represented in lower-paid occupations.

While there is a political push both in the United States and Australia to “get back to work”, the experience of past recessions is that unemployment rises rapidly but descends very slowly.

To read more about what this means for Australia and the US and what we can learn from the global financial crisis, read the full brief The unequal burden of the COVID-19 labour market collapse.

COVID-19: BY THE NUMBERS

Tests per 100k: NY 5,196 | NSW 3,136

New York’s rate of testing its citizens for COVID-19 are the second highest in the country. Similarly, New South Wales is the second highest for testing by population in Australia, behind South Australia. When corrected for population, the rate of testing in NY is 66 per cent higher than in NSW, but this has no correlation with the death or recovery rates. Both states drastically increased their testing rates, but over different timelines.

In NSW, the surge in testing started earlier and rose at a flatter rate than in NY. After a small early surge of testing in NY, there was a dip followed by an exponential rise that plateaued around its current level. The role of early testing is a key data point to analyse the different trajectories and the potential for a second wave as states start to re-open.

To track the latest trends and numbers, visit our COVID-19 tracker HERE.

VIRTUAL EVENT

How is COVID-19 accelerating US' messy economic separation from China?

The pandemic will eventually subside. But ‘normal functioning’ of the economic relationship between the world’s two largest economies will be increasingly different to what it was before, according to a new report from USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Dr John Lee. The three Ds – decoupling, disentangling and diversification – are the likely US playbook to handle the messy economic separation.

But how does this occur after decades of US supply chains relying on “Made in China”? Which sectors will be the most disrupted and what are the implications for Australia?

For the latest instalment of our series 'COVID-19: The Big Questions', please join us for a webinar event featuring USSC Senior Fellow Dr Charles Edel in conversation with Dr John Lee, USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow and the author of the recently published USSC report "US-China economic distancing in the era of great power rivalry and COVID-19".

WHEN:
Thursday 7, May 2020, 11am AEST

COST:
Free, but registration is essential

REGISTER NOW

VIDEO

Ambassador John Berry (ret.) paints a vivid picture of COVID-19 New York

Did you miss our webinar event with guest speaker J ohn Berry, President of the American Australian Association and former US Ambassador to Australia?

You can now watch John's talk on our YouTube Channel!