24 OCTOBER

Migrant caravan a midterms game changer?

A group of thousands of South American migrants is slowly making its way through Mexico towards the US border, drawing the ire of President Donald Trump and shaking up the midterm elections campaign with two weeks until polling day.

On Monday, Trump claimed "criminals and unknown Middle Easterners are mixed" into the migrant caravan and floated the possibility of deploying the military to close the US-Mexico border. The president made the infiltration claims shortly after a Fox News segment detailing the unrelated arrest of ISIS fighters in Guatemala aired. 

On Twitter, the president blamed Democrats for blocking tougher immigration measures and said he will begin the process of "cutting off or substantially reducing" foreign aid to Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador in reprisal for those countries failing to do "the job of stopping people from leaving their country and coming illegally to the US".

NEWS WRAP

Gender agenda

• The Trump administration could define 'transgender' out of existence if a leaked 2017 memo from the Department of Health and Human Services is anything to go by. The New York Times reports the department circulated a memo detailing its intention to define sex based on "immutable biological traits identifiable by or before birth". The memo, which would affect federal recognition for an estimated 1.4 million transgender people in the United States, is the latest in a series of efforts by the Trump administration to overturn Obama-era interpretations of of civil rights protections for the LGBTIQ community. READ MORE HERE.
   

• The United States will pull out of the INF nuclear treaty with Russia, President Trump has announced. Senior fellow John Lee said in an article for CNN.com that it's the right move, but not because of Russia. The bilateral treaty signed with Russia in 1987 pledged the non-proliferation of intermediate-range nuclear forces by both countries, but Lee argues it has come to prohibit the United States from responding earnestly to China's increasing aggression and militarism. READ MORE HERE.
   
• Disenfranchisement of likely Democrat voters  ahead of the US midterms is happening at an alarming rate, according to honorary associate Nicole Hemmer. Writing for The Sydney Morning Herald, Hemmer says that the Republican Party has committed itself to shrinking the voter pool to enhance its electoral prospects at the cost of the prided US democratic tradition. READ MORE HERE.
   
• The latest midterm polls show a tightening race in both the House and the Senate. But don't bank on a total resurgence of the Democrats, writes visiting fellow Bruce Wolpe in his latest Midterm Matters blog. Although Democrats are still trending well for the House, he says Republicans are increasingly optimistic that they will hold the Senate and perhaps gain 1-3 seats. As for the Russia probe? Don't expect a peep before November 6. The example of James Comey's perceived interference in the closing stages of the 2016 presidential election is clearly on Robert Mueller's mind, Wolpe says. READ MORE HERE.
   
• President Trump's Space Force has been given a green light and six recommendations by the National Space Council this week. The council called for a funding plan for the department, which separates the Air Force's space functions from the service, by 2020. Senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute Malcolm Davis and USSC Alliance 21 Fellow Madelyn Creedon went head to head on whether the Space Force is a good idea in the latest in our Debate Papers series. READ MORE HERE.

You know what I am? I’m a nationalist. OK? I’m a nationalist.

President Donald Trump
Campaign rally in Houston, Texas
22 October 2018

ANALYSIS

Should Asia care about US midterm elections?

Charles Edel
Senior fellow

The results of the US midterm elections in early November will either validate President Donald Trump's policies or provide a check on them, but the direction of American foreign policy will only partially be determined by electoral results.

Regardless of the outcome of the elections, interested observers in Asia should anticipate four distinct shifts in US foreign policy in the near term: Washington will be increasingly focused on China, Congress will likely support initiatives in the Indo-Pacific with greater resources, Trump may be less constrained in his use of presidential power, and surprisingly, the American people may actually be increasing their commitment to a rules-based order.

On China, Vice President Mike Pence made a comprehensive case in a speech on October 4 for Washington's claims that China poses a threat to American national interests. Pence called out Beijing's unfair trading practices, which include intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, massive industrial subsidies, and various forms of economic coercion applied to noncompliant states; and detailed the increasingly aggressive use of the Chinese military against US allies and Beijing's attempts to push America out of the western Pacific.

He also noted the Chinese Communist Party's growing turn toward control and oppression domestically and its export of some of those techniques abroad; underscored the subjugation of ethnic and religious minorities in China, including the forced detention, torture, and re-education of as many as one million Muslim Uighurs in internment camps in western China; and highlighted Chinese attempts to shape and silence public debate in the United States and among its allies.

Critics have charged that Pence’s speech was too political, not specific enough on claims of election interference, and vague about the American response. These charges are all valid, but they obscure a larger point. Within the executive branch of the US government, China is increasingly the focal point of foreign policy and national security concerns. Despite Trump's unsteadiness and ongoing White House volatility, practically every US government agency recognises the need for a more competitive relationship with China. As long as Chinese President Xi Jinping continues to steer China on a repressive path at home and an aggressive one abroad, that is almost certain to stay the case.

Read Charles Edel's full column for the Nikkei Asian Review here.

DIARY

The week ahead

• Wednesday, 24 October: President Trump is scheduled to sign the bipartisan opioids legislation and address an event commemorating the signing at the White House. He'll later do a campaign rally in Wisconsin.
   

• Wednesday, 24 October: United Nations Day.
   

• Thursday, 25 October: Final sitting day of Australian Parliament until November 12 (Senate) and November 26 (House of Reps).

STUDENT EVENT

The midterms explained

VIDEO

 The Mooch does an interpretive dance for each of his days in the White House

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

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University of Sydney NSW 2006

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