9 DECEMBER

Weighing anchor in a "safe harbor"

The eyes of the world are locked on the United States, eagerly awaiting the official outcome of the presidential election. According to 7 News, “US election” was the most searched term by Australians on Google this year with “Trump vs Biden” rounding out the top ten list. The election results are one step closer to being complete as today’s “safe harbor” deadline marks the date by which a state’s electors in the Electoral College are deemed protected from further legal challenge. For all practical purposes, the window for legal challenges to the election outcome has closed. Each state’s electors will meet in their state capitals on 14 December; in many states, the electors role is purely ceremonial, with state law mandating that they vote for the certified winner of the election in their state. Any further challenge to the election outcome would have to come via extraordinary political action, such as a state legislature endorsing an alternative slate of electors, or Congress not accepting the Electoral College results on 6 January 2021.

Another dominant trend in Google searches this year were coronavirus queries and comparisons of Australia and the United States in particular. As Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe noted in April, the pandemic has been “a tale of two plagues” and the United States has now passed the grim milestone of 15 million cases of COVID-19. Even as the first vaccines start to roll out, the international competition is heating up, pitting the United States against the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia and other countries to secure limited doses of vaccines while production gears up. President-Elect Biden has promised 100 million doses in his first 100 days and has said he will get the vaccine injection live on TV to convince others to get it as well once it has been declared safe by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

VIDEO

US-China relations under a
Biden administration

Did you miss our webinar on US-China relations under a Biden administration featuring guest speaker Axios China reporter Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian and USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow and host Dr John Lee? Watch the full discussion HERE.

Catch this and other recent webinars on the USSC YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

"In my defence..."

Defending the Defense Secretary | Joe Biden announced retired General Lloyd Austin as his selection to lead the Pentagon, defending his choice in The Atlantic as some have criticised the appointment. USSC's Dr Jim Golby argues in the New York Times that Austin is "a capable and respected former commander of Central Command, but a civilian — not a recently retired general — should lead the Pentagon." A Congressional waiver will be needed to override the requirement that a prospective secretary wait seven years after ending active duty before taking on the top job in the Defense Department. READ MORE HERE
SCOTUS says no | The US Supreme Court rejected the Republican bid to reverse the Pennsylvania election results. The one-sentence order denied the application for injunctive relief brought by Representative Mike Kelly (PA-R). It did not suggest any dissent among the nine justices and follows the state Supreme Court's unanimous dismissal of the lawsuit on 28 November. READ MORE HERE
From rough seas to a "safe harbor" | As President Donald Trump remains unwavering in his resolve to challenge the 2020 election outcome, the 8 December "Safe Harbor" deadline has passed. After this date, federal law prohibits Congress from undoing the results that states have already certified. The Electoral College will officially cast ballots on 14 December. READ MORE HERE
Vaccination nation | The FDA has labelled the first COVID-19 vaccine "safe" and "effective" for US distribution. An outside panel of advisors will review the FDA report on 10 December to determine whether the agency should green light the vaccine for emergency use authorisation. A favourable recommendation of the Pfizer-BioNTech manufactured vaccine could see distribution begin as early as this coming weekend. READ MORE HERE

VIRTUAL EVENT

Vaccines, democracy and truth

Disinformation and digital disruption after the 2020 election

The United States is in the grips of a singular moment in history. An emboldened community of conspiracy theorists is spreading rampant disinformation about the presidential election and the efficacy and intention of COVID-19 vaccines. How can the United States and Australia traverse this clash of online disinformation and conspiracy theories with the real-world rollout of a vaccine program and a presidential transition? How has this landscape enabled hostile actors to influence US politics, and what are the implications for Australia and the world?

Please join the United States Studies Centre for a discussion of these issues and more with the award-winning investigative journalist for NBC News Brandy Zadrozny and USSC Non-Resident Fellow and Lecturer at the National Security College at ANU, Dr Jennifer Hunt in conversation with USSC Research Associate Elliott Brennan.

WHEN:
Tuesday, 15 December 2020, 10am AEDT (Sydney)
Monday, 14 December 2020, 6pm EST (Washington DC)

COST:
Free, but registration is essential

REGISTER NOW

This will be one of the hardest and most costly operational challenges in our nation’s history.

President-Elect Joe Biden
on COVID-19 vaccine national distribution
8 December 2020

ANALYSIS

Australia can’t afford to bite its tongue on China

Dr John Lee
Non-Resident Senior Fellow

Past prime ministers and foreign ministers, academics, business people and journalists are critical of the government’s handling of our relationship with China.

These critics point to bad Australian policy, an over-reaction to slights, poorly chosen words combined with bad timing, or a simple case of wanting to please our American ally. As these arguments go, China is more important to Australia than we are to China so it’s best to swallow our pride, bite our tongue and work towards a more friendly accommodation. These same voices call for better balance, nuance, pragmatism or perspective.

Mistakes are always made in the handling of such a difficult relationship, but it is the Morrison government and not its loudest critics that has a better grasp of the challenge and understanding of where it needs to land.

This is not the first time the Chinese Communist Party has gone on the economic and diplomatic offensive against another country. Beijing has done that against the Japanese over disagreements in the East China Sea; South Korea for daring to protect itself better against Pyongyang’s illegal missile and nuclear threats; and The Philippines for asserting its legal rights in the South China Sea. Others outside East Asia on the receiving end include India, Mongolia, Britain and Norway.

Perversely, the frequency with which Beijing relies on inflicting punishments has led some to normalise that behaviour implicitly by blaming those on the receiving end for provoking China or mismanaging the relationship. It is as if Chinese coercion is accepted as a given in the international system and sensible statecraft is all about how best to avoid that pain.

Of course, friendly relations with our largest trading partner are generally a good idea. But we must work with what we are given and what is being imposed on us.

This is an excerpt from Dr John Lee's recent op-ed in The Australian.
Click below to read the full article.

BY THE NUMBERS

Unemployment – April vs October

US 14.7% / 6.9% | Aus 6.4% / 7% 

When the pandemic hit, joblessness in the United States surged sharply in April and then has steadily declined ever since. Australia’s measures, Job Keeper in particular, kept the unemployment rate relatively flat. As Non-Resident Fellow David Uren wrote in Red Book / Blue Book, “The United States economy is showing, yet again, its resilience in the face of a massive economic shock.” Under a President Biden, he warns that increases to company taxes may slow the US recovery, but notes that this could ease pressure on Australia to lower its company tax rate.

Read more on what to expect on economic policy under a Biden administration HERE.