VIDEO

The Trump campaign playbook

Election Watch 2020

Were you unable to make it to the latest instalment in our Election Watch series "The Trump campaign playbook" featuring Axios National Political Reporter Jonathan Swan?

You can now watch the full webinar on our YouTube channel!

NEWS WRAP

Trump, Biden or the virus

Who will win come November?

• Virus wreaks havoc for Trump in election polls
  Election battleground states such as Florida, Texas and Arizona have become the latest hotspots for COVID-19 cases as the virus continues to weigh heavily on President Trump’s polling and re-election chances. READ MORE HERE 
   

• COVID and Biden flank Trump
  In The Conversation this week, Senior Lecturer in American Politics and Foreign Policy David Smith argues both the virus and Joe Biden are simultaneously invisible and threatening forces that the Trump campaign will need to be reckoned with by November. READ MORE HERE 
   

• Face-off over face masks more politics than public health
  Face masks are emerging as an enduring symbol of deep partisan divisions in the politics of the pandemic. President Trump told attendees at his Tulsa campaign event they should “do what they want” on masks, while Biden recently lashed out at the president saying he has a “moral obligation” to wear one. READ MORE HERE
   

• Congress warned US could hit record 100,000 new cases per day

  The White House's top infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci has issued a stark warning during a US Senate committee, saying he “would not be surprised if we go up to 100,000 a day if this does not turn around”. Last week the United States reported more than 40,000 new cases in a 24-hour period, its biggest jump in cases to date. READ MORE HERE

ANALYSIS

Enduring economic partners

David Uren
Non-Resident Fellow

Australia has been resource-rich but capital-poor for most of its history; hungry for foreign capital to fuel its economic development. The United States is Australia’s largest foreign investor, the largest destination of Australian outbound investment and Australia’s third-largest trading partner. Quite simply, the United States is Australia’s most indispensable and enduring economic partner.

The United States Studies Centre produced a landmark study of the US-Australia investment relationship in 2017, roughly a decade on from the global financial crisis. Since the release of that report, the value of the two-way investment relationship rose by A$350 billion, reaching A$1.82 trillion. This is equivalent to about 90 per cent of the value of the entire Australian share market, is ten times larger than Australia’s bilateral investment relationship with China and is A$627 billion more than Australia’s investment relationship with the United Kingdom, Australia’s second largest investment partner.

Today, more than one out of every four dollars invested in Australia from overseas has come from the United States, with the total US investment in Australia totalling A$984 billion. In the last five years alone, the stock of US investment has risen by 25 per cent. This is not just a matter of money but also livelihoods: US firms are responsible for some 323,000 jobs in Australia, with annual salaries averaging more than A$100,000.

In the other direction, the United States remains the preferred offshore destination for Australia, with Australian investment in the United States now standing at A$837 billion and making up 28 per cent of all Australian outbound investment. This too has only grown in recent years: In the last five years, the stock of total Australian investment in the US has risen by 27 per cent.

Australian and US pension, retirement, superannuation funds and other financial institutions have also been building their stakes in each other’s debt and equity markets. The overall holdings of Australian stocks and bonds by US investors stands at A$611 billion, more than 30 per cent of all foreign investment in Australian securities markets, and nearly double the size of investments of next-ranked United Kingdom. In the other direction, Australian super funds – and their A$2.7 trillion pool of funds – among other investors have put A$110 billion into the US market over the last six years, lifting their US holdings to A$553 billion. The increase in portfolio investment has come at a time when global portfolio flows have been weak, with portfolio flows dropping by 40 per cent in 2018.

The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement has been vital to the growth of investment between the two countries. Since the agreement went into effect on 1 January, 2005, the Australian-US investment relationship has nearly tripled, having increased by more than A$1.2 trillion or 283 per cent.

Yet in the wake of a worldwide pandemic and as Australia has entered recession for the first time in 29 years, we find that the investment relationship between the two countries is even more important. In an increasingly fractious global economy, businesses in both the United States and Australia are looking to each other’s markets for stability and strength while international investment flows are facing their greatest challenge since the global financial crisis.

Such a sizeable economic relationship is a key ballast for such uncertain times but it is clear that more can be done. There remain some key barriers which, if they can be overcome, would enable further gains for the two steadfast allies.

This article is an excerpt from David Uren’s upcoming report “Enduring Economic Partners”.

COVID-19: BY THE NUMBERS

Daily case increase: US 44,358 | AU 67​

As the world surpassed 10 million coronavirus cases and Victoria recorded 64 new cases in a single day, the major focus remains on the United States.

Over the past seven days, the average daily increase has been 41,231 new cases – markedly up from the average of 28,822 new cases per day the week prior. With predictions of more than 100,000 new cases a day in the future, these numbers are only expected to rise.

To track the latest trends and numbers, visit our COVID-19 tracker HERE.

VIRTUAL EVENT

Enduring economic partners

15 years of the Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement

When the free trade agreement between the United States and Australia (AUSFTA) went into force on 1 January, 2005, the two allies were engaged in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, economic globalisation was yet to reach its high watermark, and China’s economy was less than a sixth of the size that it is today. AUSFTA deepened the US-Australia economic relationship, with two-way trade increasing by nearly 80 per cent and investment flows nearly tripling since 2005. 

But much has changed since 2005, with globalisation in retreat and China the second-largest economy in the world. 

To discuss these issues, please join us for a webinar event featuring many of the officials who created the landmark agreement, including: 

WHEN:
Friday 24 July 2020, 9am - 10:30am AEST

COST: 
Free, but registration is essential

THE WEEK IN TWEETS

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