March 14, 2025

Welcome to FDD Action's Weekly NatSec Roundup.

📊 Check out FDD’s March foreign policy tracker. Each month, FDD experts assess the administration’s foreign policy around the globe and provide trendlines for key areas. Two months into its second term, how is the Trump administration handling challenges from Iran to cybersecurity?

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🚨 NEED-TO-KNOW THIS WEEK

Secretary Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz in Jeddah to meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Zelensky Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak, and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Mar. 11, 2025. (State Department photo by Freddie Everett)

1. Ukraine “expressed readiness to accept” a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire following talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. Putin reportedly replied with his own list of demands, as U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff met with Russian officials in Moscow (after Putin reportedly kept him waiting for eight hours).

Back in sync: The U.S. and Ukraine issued a joint statement Tuesday announcing the news after a five-hour meeting of high-level officials. The U.S. resumed intelligence sharing and military assistance.
Fine Print: If Russia accepts the ceasefire, it will take effect immediately. The U.S. and Ukraine discussed the importance of humanitarian relief, especially exchanging prisoners of war and returning forcibly transferred Ukrainian children. There's also agreement to close on a minerals deal that would “guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security.” Ukraine reiterated that European partners will be involved in the peace process.
As for Putin, he "supports" the idea of a ceasefire, but said, “there are nuances.” Russia has reportedly presented the U.S. with a list of demands and conditions said to largely mirror previous ones. This likely means that any peace deal must resolve the war’s “root causes.”
Reading between the lines, Russia's unlikely to be comfortable with anything less than Ukraine becoming a vassal state and a weakened European security architecture. Its other demands: Ukrainian neutrality and demilitarization; a ban on Western military activity in Ukraine; and a commitment that Kyiv legally protect Russian influence in Ukraine.
High-pressure system moving East. With Ukraine onboard, the U.S. is signaling its pressure tactics will shift to Moscow. Following a massive Russian barrage on Ukrainian energy facilities, Trump tweeted he was “strongly considering” sanctions and tariffs on Russia. Putin has said he may need a direct call with Trump, and while Trump said he’d love to meet, he added “we have to get it over with fast.” Have Putin’s stalling tactics finally met their match?
The U.S. should increase pressure: The Trump admin should have a sanctions package at the ready, including measures targeting Russian oil revenues. But Trump should not limit himself to economic options, as FDD’s John Hardie argues. The administration should also be ready to increase military aid for Ukraine should Moscow refuse a ceasefire.
Countering military aid myths – Q: Is U.S. security assistance to Ukraine unsustainable? A: “For a cost equivalent to less than 3 percent of Pentagon spending since the 2022 invasion, and without a single American servicemember fighting in Ukraine, U.S.-provided security assistance has thus far helped Ukraine stop Russia from achieving its objective of making Ukraine a vassal state, which would severely threaten European and American security.” FDD’s Bradley Bowman, Cameron McMillan, and Ryan Brobst debunk this and other myths.

2. In round two of U.S. and China’s renewed trade war, Beijing introduced tariffs targeting some $22 billion of U.S. agricultural exports on Monday after the Trump administration increased import duties on Chinese goods from 0 to 20% early last week.

Catch up: The first U.S.-China tariff exchange of the new administration started last month with President Trump’s imposition of a universal 10% tariff on Chinese imports for Beijing’s role in America’s fentanyl crisis. In response, Beijing launched its first retaliatory tariffs, targeting U.S. energy and automobile exports. “We are ready to fight till the end,” posted the Chinese Embassy to the U.S. on X last week.
Elsewhere, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office has proposed a $1.5 million fee on Chinese ships docking in U.S. ports after it found that China’s growing global shipping dominance was “unreasonable” and burdensome to U.S. commerce. The investigation reported that China’s share of global shipping tonnage increased from 5% in 1999 to over 50% in 2023 because of anti-competitive policies.
Our takeaway? China’s retaliatory tariffs were limited compared to those the Trump admin imposed. As FDD research analyst Jack Burnham argues, “China’s response signals Beijing’s hesitation in confronting Washington while safeguarding its vulnerable economy. President Xi Jinping, "cannot risk a full-fledged trade war at a time when China cannot afford a sudden plunge in exports."
The U.S. long-term strategy: Reduce China’s leverage over crucial U.S. supply chains, such as critical minerals, legacy semiconductors, and other advanced technologies. Simultaneously, encourage greater manufacturing in these sectors domestically along with allies and partners.
Dive deeper: “Economic security is national security,” argue FDD’s Elaine Dezenski and Max Meizlish. Stricter oversight of U.S. foreign investment in China and Chinese investments in the U.S. – as proposed by the Trump administration’s “America First Investment Policy” – are critical to securing American supply chains.

3. One story overlooked by many this week: at least 1,000 people, including 700 civilians, have been killed as the transitional Syrian government clashed with a pro-Assad, Alawite insurgency.

Quick background: The Assad regime, which ruled Syria during a decade-plus, largely frozen civil war, collapsed in December. Rebel forces swept across the country in a stunningly quick offensive that caught many by surprise. While there have been U.S.-backed forces in the civil war, the forces that led the offensive and have now taken over are headed by the U.S.-designated, Islamist terrorist group, HTS. The Assad family, which belongs to Syria's Shia Alawite minority, survived all these years with Russia and Iran’s help. Its collapse is a blow to both countries.
The latest clashes began on March 6 when Assad loyalists ambushed and killed 16 police officers in a coastal region home to many of Syria’s Alawites. In response, interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa imposed a curfew and deployed troops to the region. Violence quickly spiraled into mass atrocities, first against mainly Alawite civilians by pro-government factions, and then against civilians on the other side by Assad loyalists.
Why has the chaos resurged? In short, due to the failure of the provisional government on two critical fronts: “First, there has been little to no accountability for those who committed grave crimes under Assad. Second, al-Sharaa [Syria's transitional leader] has failed to establish effective control over the rebel coalition he led to take down Assad,” concludes FDD research analyst, Ahmad Sharawi.
As for the West, here is what Washington can do next: The U.S. should warn Syria's transitional government that perpetrators must be held accountable and minorities protected. Should it fail, Washington should impose additional human rights sanctions on those responsible for atrocities. Moreover, the U.S. should make clear to Damascus that permanent relief from terrorism sanctions will not be possible until it ceases to harbor foreign fighters and terrorist organizations.
Proceed with caution: “While Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is a former al-Qaeda commander with whom the United States should deal extremely carefully, the old regime and its Iranian backers pose an even greater threat to the United States and its allies in the region,” warns FDD VP for Research David Adesnik.

🏛️ AT THE WHITE HOUSE

The State Department rescinded a waiver allowing Iraq to continue importing electricity from Iran on Saturday, as President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran continues to ramp up.

From unlocking to blocking billions: From 2018 to 2023, the State Department issued waivers that allowed Iraq to pay Iran for electricity imports on the condition that Tehran be denied access to the revenues. That changed in July 2023, when the Biden administration authorized Iraq to transfer payments to regime bank accounts in Oman, reportedly giving Tehran access to as much as $10 billion in frozen funds. At the time, FDD experts warned this would allow Tehran more funds for terror.
A good start: The Trump admin’s decision to finally cancel the waiver is a “win on several fronts,” explained FDD’s Behnam Ben Taleblu. It allows Iraq to gain energy independence and reduces Iran's ability to generate revenue.
Max pressure 2.0: This week the State Department also sanctioned a Swedish-based criminal organization called the Foxtrot Network and its leader, Rawa Majid. The gang attempted to bomb the Israeli embassy in Stockholm in January 2024. The Treasury Department also sanctioned Iran’s Minister of Petroleum Mohsen Paknejad and other entities across the globe helping Iran illicitly export billions of dollars of oil.

Blanket 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports went into effect on Wednesday in the latest round of import duties levied by the Trump administration.

To tariff or not to tariff: The EU – the U.S.’s third largest supplier of steel – announced they would impose a two-stage tariff plan against a variety of U.S. exports worth €26 billion. Australia, however, ruled out retaliatory tariffs. Trump agreed in February to consider exempting Australia from these tariffs, as he similarly did in his first term.
As for Canada, Ontario Premier Doug Ford planned to impose a 25% surcharge on Canadian electricity exports to three U.S. states in response. Trump replied Tuesday with the threat of an additional 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum on top of the original 25%. After a conversation with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Ford announced the same day that Ontario would suspend its retaliatory tariff, followed by a White House confirmation that the additional 25% would not go into effect.
If your head is spinning, markets are too. U.S. stocks continued to sink their sixth consecutive day of heavy losses on Thursday, which some investors pinned on tariff and trade uncertainty.

The White House has ramped up pressure on U.S. universities for abetting antisemitism and pro-terror violence, upholding a key campaign promise by President Trump.

Funding Shakeup for Columbia: In a major step to force universities to address antisemitism on campus, the Trump administration canceled $400 million in grants to Columbia University late Friday, citing the school’s “continued inaction in the face of persistent harassment of Jewish students.”
Hamilton Hall incident: Last April, anti-Israel demonstrators violently took over Columbia’s iconic Hamilton Hall, during which maintenance workers were held against their will. Despite Columbia’s threats of suspension and expulsion at the time, eventual calling up of the NYPD, and 84 students being arrested or disciplined, only five remained suspended as of August.
Last-ditch effort to salvage funding? Now, over ten months later - and after the Trump administration's funding announcement - Columbia released a tranche of disciplinary actions against the students involved, including multi-year suspensions and other penalties.
Targeting pro-terror foreign activists in U.S.: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers arrested Mahmoud Khalil, a Columbia student in America on a U.S. green card, on Saturday. Khalil faces the revocation of his green card for “[leading] activities aligned to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization.” He was deeply involved with Columbia Apartheid Divest Coalition, negotiating with Columbia during the April protests. Khalil also gave an interview to the Hamas-aligned Quds News Network and circulated pro-Hamas flyers during recent campus protests.
Universities on notice: The Department of Education notified 60 universities they were under investigation for Title VI violations related to antisemitism. On February 28, the Department of Justice announced an antisemitism task force would visit ten universities, including Columbia, George Washington, and USC, that “may have failed to protect Jewish students and faculty members from unlawful discrimination” on campus.
Read more: “October 7, 2023, unleashed a wave of campus antisemitism. Now is the moment to scrutinize the flow of foreign money into American colleges and universities,” FDD’s Natalie Ecanow explains how legislation like the FDD Action-supported Deterrent Act (H.R.1048) would limit foreign influence over U.S. universities by enhancing disclosure requirements.

President Trump nominated Amer Ghalib as U.S. ambassador to Kuwait last week. Ghalib, the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, is an “outspoken” critic of Israel and led the city’s efforts to boycott firms that do business with what he calls “Israeli apartheid.” The nomination warrants serious scrutiny.

Deeply concerning statements. Ghalib dismissed reports of Hamas’s beheadings and systematic rapes on October 7, 2023, as “lies” of the Biden administration and has referred to Saddam Hussein as a “matryr.”
Debunking the “apartheid” lie. It’s a take that at best is highly misinformed and at worst is prejudiced. “Israeli society is slandered as ‘apartheid’ even though the 20 percent of Israel’s citizens who are Arab Muslims are the freest – and among the most accomplished – Arab Muslim communities in the Middle East,” highlights FDD Founder and President Clifford May. Here is a deeper dive on the topic.

U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff landed in Qatar on Wednesday to continue negotiations for the next phase of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.

Witkoff: Hamas has “no alternative” to disarming and leaving the Gaza Strip, but if Hamas agrees to demilitarize and leave Gaza, “all things are on the table.” He also called for deadlines to make a deal on the next ceasefire phase.
Messaging mishaps: In an unprecedented move, U.S. Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Adam Boehler met directly with the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hamas over releasing U.S. hostages held in Gaza (Axios broke the news last week). The U.S. has never engaged directly with Hamas. Defending the direct meetings on the Sunday shows, Boehler had some messaging mishaps, implying an equivalence between Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
“This is your last warning!” The same day the Boehler news broke, Trump met with former Israeli hostages in the Oval Office and issued his final warning to Hamas. “‘Shalom Hamas’ means Hello and Goodbye — You can choose. Release all of the Hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you.” Trump added, “I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job.”
Did it work? 🚨 Nothing has been finalized, but Hamas said today that it agreed to release Edan Alexander, the last living U.S. citizen held hostage in Gaza. Hamas also had a change of tone, announcing it was ready to begin negotiations to start phase two of a ceasefire deal with Israel.

📆 COMING DOWN THE PIKE

With members of Congress in both chambers heading home to their districts for recess and a shutdown likely averted, next week is looking quieter around Washington.

Today, March 14 –

Secretary of State Marco Rubio attends G7 Foreign Ministers meetings in Quebec on China, North Korea, Iran, Russia, and peace and security in Africa on the summit's final day.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is in Washington today after meeting with President Trump in the Oval Office Thursday to discuss increased defense spending by Europe.

Monday, March 17 –🍀Happy Saint Patrick's Day!!🍀

Thursday, March 20 – 🎉Happy Nowruz!! Iranians celebrate the Persian New Year.

Unclear timing: Vice President JD Vance and Second Lady Usha have plans to travel to India later this month for his second trip abroad as vice president.

🔍 WHAT'S MOVING ON THE HILL

✔ Endorsed Bills Pass House: On Monday, the House of Representatives passed two FDD Action-endorsed bills under suspension. The SHIELD Against CCP Act (H.R.708) is led by Reps. Dale Strong (R-AL) and Tom Suozzi (D-NY) and directs DHS to establish a working group to counter a range of threats posed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The Decoupling Foreign Adversarial Battery Independence Act (H.R.1166), led by Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-FL), prohibits DHS from procuring batteries manufactured by companies with ties to the People’s Republic of China.

✔ Endorsed Bills at SFRC Markup: The committee has plans to consider two bills key to countering terror threats in Latin America and the fentanyl crisis, among other legislation. The No Hezbollah in Our Hemisphere Act (S.842) is led by Sens. John Curtis (R-UT) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV) and directs the Secretary of State to determine if any Latin American countries are “terrorist sanctuaries” for Hezbollah and if such foreign government officials should face visa revocations. The BUST FENTANYL Act (S.860) led by Sens. Jim Risch (R-ID) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) would crack down on the import of deadly fentanyl and its precursors flowing from China, to Mexico, and across our borders by expanding sanctions authorities and broadening the list of precursors chemicals tracked in the annual International Narcotics Control Strategy Report. While the business meeting scheduled for this week was postponed, these bills should still be on the docket when the Senate returns.

🎤 Quotable: FDD Action's Tyler Stapleton said, “Despite Hezbollah’s military leadership being thoroughly degraded, the terror group maintains a global illicit finance network that could help the organization reconstitute itself, especially with the backing of terrorist sponsors like Iran.” While this is acutely felt in Latin America, few countries in the region have designated Hezbollah and some even openly support it. “The No Hezbollah in Our Hemisphere Act seeks to address the permissive environment for Hezbollah in the region through a comprehensive assessment of Latin American countries to determine whether they meet the criteria of a terrorist sanctuary under U.S. law,” Stapleton concluded.

✔ Endorsed Bill Advanced in Committee: The Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee Markup voted on March 12 to advance the ROUTERS Act (S.244). Led by Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM), this bill directs the Department of Commerce to conduct a study on the national security risks posed by consumer routers, modems, and similar consumer products. A companion bill (H.R.866) was also introduced in the House by Rep. Bob Latta (R-OH) in January. This bill was also introduced by Rep. Latta last Congress and passed the House unanimously.

Go Deeper: FDD’s Johanna Yang and co-author Thomas Carroll applauded passage of the ROUTERS Act in the House last Congress and broke down the threat Chinese-made routers and modems pose to U.S. critical infrastructure.

💡 HERE'S AN IDEA

Empower private actors to supplement U.S. sanctions enforcement. The Trump administration’s goal is clear: Use unrestricted financial warfare to disrupt criminal and terrorist networks, whether they be cartels, rogue regimes or state sponsors of terror. But can the U.S. government enforce them effectively on their own? FDD’s Elaine Dezenski and FDD Action’s Matt Zweig penned an op-ed in The Hill urging the White House to expand “qui tam” provision authorities.

“Qui tam” what? Derived from the False Claims Act, these provisions empower private individuals to sue violators on behalf of the U.S. government and claim a portion of the penalties collected. Extending qui tam to sanctions enforcement could create a powerful market-driven incentive structure for aggressive sanctions enforcement.
Supplementing limited USG capacity: Executive branch departments and agencies lack the capabilities to track and penalize every violator in an increasingly complex global financial system. The administration may want to impose sanctions aggressively, but without enhancing enforcement and greater resources, its impact will remain limited.
Enlisting private eyes against Iran. A qui tam approach could address key weaknesses in the current enforcement regime. Iran’s sanctions evasion heavily relies on oil tankers operating through opaque maritime networks, often using tactics like ship-to-ship transfers and fraudulent paperwork. However, financially incentivizing private actors to track and report these operations would make enforcement more effective.

Examine the U.S.’s strategic partnerships with Turkey. Turkey has systematically tested America's patience for more than a decade, and it has yet to pay a significant price for doing so. FDD Executive Director Jonathan Schanzer testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee last week. He laid out recommendations to address the ways Ankara has undermined U.S. foreign interests.

Counter Turkish-backed terror. Turkey has become a state sponsor of terrorism. Turkey’s fingerprints can be found in Lebanon, and Ankara is a leading patron of Hamas. Sanctions are necessary to punish Ankara for allowing financial transactions via Turkish banks.
Curtail anti-American Turkish ambitions. Ankara is actively working to expand its traditional sphere of influence in the Middle East and beyond, and it is doing so at the expense of the stability of us and our allies. The U.S. should maintain its modest military presence in Syria to counter Turkey’s expansionist efforts and ensure regional stability.
Evaluate Turkey’s role in NATO. In 2019, despite warnings from the Trump administration, Erdogan purchased the S-400 missile defense system from Russia, resulting in Ankara’s removal from the F-35 program and the imposition of U.S. sanctions. The U.S. should leverage the NDAA and appropriations mechanisms to block any efforts to reengage Turkey on the F-35 program until Ankara fully dismantles and removes its S-400.
Address Turkey’s close ties with Moscow. Over the years, Russia and Turkey have managed to compartmentalize their relations. They have engaged in major energy projects and cooperated on some geopolitical issues even as they competed on others. The United States should compel Ankara to support the international sanctions regime against Russia, which it has thus far refused.

📣 WINNING MESSAGES

📘 KEEPING UP W/ FDD

On Iran

Houthi Networks – Oman Is Supporting the Houthis: It Should Be Held to Account (Jonathan Schanzer and Ahmad Sharawi | The National Interest | March 7, 2025)

On Israel

Qatar's Hamas Support – To Make Progress on Gaza Hostages, Raise the Pressure on Hamas’ Sponsor: Qatar (Natalie Ecanow | New York Sun | March 14, 2025)

Israel & Hezbollah – Hezbollah’s Comeback Plan and How to Counter It (Hussain Abdul-Hussain | This Is Beirut | March 11, 2025)

Campus Antisemitism – ‘Activities Aligned to Hamas’: ICE Arrests Columbia Student Who Led Violent Anti-Israel Campus Protests in 2024 (FDD Flash Brief | March 10, 2025)

On China

Cybersecurity – U.S. Indicts Chinese Nationals Involved in Hacking of National Security Infrastructure (Johanna Yang and Jack Burnham | FDD Policy Brief | March 12, 2025)

China Military Modernization – Chinese Leader Xi Jinping Calls for Greater Local Support for Military Modernization (Johanna Yang and Jack Burnham | FDD Policy Brief | March 13, 2025)

On Russia & Ukraine

Russia Sanctions – Trump’s Putin Gambit: How to Hammer Moscow with Sanctions That Bite (Peter Doran | The Hill | March 10, 2025)

U.S. Military Assistance – U.S. Aid to Ukraine Is More Sustainable Than Putin’s Invasion (Bradley Bowman, Cameron McMillan, and Ryan Brobst | FDD Policy Insight | March 10, 2025)

Ceasefire Decision – Trump Should Prepare to Make Putin Pay If He Refuses Ceasefire (John Hardie | FDD Policy Brief | March 12, 2025)

Aid to Ukraine – Peace Or No Peace, America Can and Should Arm Ukraine (Bradley Bowman and Ryan Brobst | Defense News | March 13, 2025)

In Other News

Military Cybersecurity – US Must Prioritize Cybersecurity Training For The Military’s Engineers (RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Alison King, and Annie Fixler | DefenseScoop | March 13, 2025)

Syrian Violence – Massacres in Syria Expose New President’s Struggle to Govern (Ahmad Sharawi | FDD Policy Brief | March 13, 2025)

🤓 ON A LIGHTER NOTE…

🌎 Did you know the U.S. Department of State was originally called the Department of Foreign Affairs? It's true! But it was remarkably short-lived.

🏛️ So, why is it called the Department of State? A quick six months after the Constitution was ratified and went into effect, in September 1789, Congress passed a law to assign the Department certain domestic duties and change its name to the Department of State.

🦭 Most of State's domestic duties were transferred to other agencies over time. One that remains: the storage and use of the Great Seal.

🔍 But why assign these duties to the Foreign Affairs Department? There weren't many options. The Department of Foreign Affairs was the first Federal agency to be created under the new Constitution when Washington signed it into law on July 27, 1989. The Departments of War and Treasury were the only other ones available, and Treasury was just 13 days old.

👋 Thanks for sticking with us! Until next week.

P.S. If you liked this and don’t want to wait another week for more, check out FDD Action’s new X account for endorsement updates and timely analysis on breaking national security news.