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Editor's note
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It’s been an awful start to the year and The Conversation’s 2020 Economic Survey doesn’t improve things.
Our 24-person panel is predicting a second consecutive year of below-par economic growth, enough to give Australia the longest run of sustained underperformance in 30 years.
Panel member Saul Eslake says it will be the result of persistently slow growth in household disposable incomes, “which households appear increasingly to recognise is unlikely to pick up any time soon”.
“The slow growth in disposable incomes in turn reflects very slow growth in real wages, the increasing proportion of gross income absorbed by tax, and weakness in property income (interest and rent) as well as the impact of the drought on farm incomes,” he says.
“The downturn in property prices, though now reversing course, probably served to heighten households’ awareness of high levels of debt, making them less willing to reduce their saving rate in order to sustain spending in the face of weak income growth.”
The panel finds it’s a home-cooked malaise. The news from overseas isn’t bad, although bad news might come. The weak economy is the result of known problems the government and Reserve Bank have been unable to fix. The panel expects one more interest rate cut and a budget surplus close to zero.
For the rest of us the panel sees no lift in wage growth, worse unemployment, and modest growth in the sharemarket and home prices.
The predictions of the 24 experts are set out clearly in interactive graphics prepared by The Conversation’s Emil Jeyaratnam, accompanied by an illustration from Wes Mountain.
The survey results aren’t good news, but they give us an idea of what’s in store.
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Peter Martin
Section Editor, Business and Economy
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Wes Mountain/The Conversation
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Conversation's 2020 economic survey points to a dismal year, with no progress on many of the key measures that matter for Australians and an increase in the unemployment rate.
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