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Editor's note
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What was billed as a battle of the tax cuts has turned out to be anything but.
Josh Frydenberg has used his first (pre-election) budget to almost double the tax bonus to be paid to most Australians with their tax return to $1,080. Michelle Grattan reports that Labor has immediately agreed, meaning the measure won’t even need to be put to parliament. The Tax Office will treat it as agreed, and hand us back an extra $1,080 with our tax refund instead of $530.
Leaving Labor free to attack other things about the budget. Oddly, it might find little to attack. The projections are conservative and fully acknowledge that forecast economic growth has been revised down along with forecast wage growth and consumer spending. Warren Hogan points out that Frydenberg is repurposing the big dollars flowing into the budget from higher iron ore prices, turning them into a Labor-style “cash splash” in a bid to
ward off a downturn.
The surplus and deficit forecasts are little changed from the December budget update. The budget should roll back into surplus next financial year and if (that’s a big if) everything goes right it might say in surplus. Richard Holden advises that the promised elimination of net government debt should be taken with a grain of salt.
We’ve also included a comprehensive account of the measures in the budget and Michelle Grattan’s thoughts about what it will mean politically.
Now for the campaign.
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Peter Martin
Section Editor, Business and Economy
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Budget 2019 explained
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The Conversation / AAP Images
Emil Jeyaratnam, The Conversation; Wes Mountain, The Conversation
All you need to know about the 2019-20 federal budget in our simple at-a-glance graphic.
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Listen
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Today on Trust Me I’m An Expert, we’re bringing you a special episode carried across from The Conversation podcast Politics with Michelle Grattan.
Mick Tsikas(AAP)/The Conversation/Shutterstock
Sunanda Creagh, The Conversation; Eliza Berlage, The Conversation
Fresh from the budget lockup, chief political correspondent Michelle Grattan talks with Business and Economics Editor Peter Martin and political and economic journalist Tim Colebatch.
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Michelle Grattan on Budget 2019
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Treasurer Josh Frydenberg warned about the economic outlook.
AAP/Mick Tsikas
Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
The budget – the first brought down by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg – doubles the tax relief that average earners were due to receive within weeks, from $530 in last year’s budget to $1,080.
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A theme in Frydenberg’s speech was that the government was taking its initiatives all “without increasing taxes”.
Lukas Coch(AAP)/Rohan Thomson(AAP)/The Conversation
Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
The government wants this election to be all about tax. The tax cuts you will get, now and later. And the “higher taxes” that Bill Shorten would impose.
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From the experts
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Richard Holden, UNSW
Peter Costello's Future Fund is funding the apparent elimination of government debt.
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Warren Hogan, University of Technology Sydney
Booming global commodity prices have masked the impacts of a weakening economy. With luck, the budget will be the shot it needs.
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The Infrastructure Pipeline
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The Morrison government’s packaging of a bundle of roads spending as “urban congestion” measures is an acknowledgment that transport planning has been inadequate.
Dean Lewins/AAP
Phillip O'Neill, Western Sydney University
The focus on roads reflects the fact that this infrastructure program comes after the fact of growth in our biggest cities, resulting in less-than-ideal transport patterns.
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Health experts respond
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The budget provides some short-term boosts aged care and mental health but little opportunity for much-needed structural reform.
Shutterstock
Stephen Duckett, Grattan Institute; Hal Swerissen, Grattan Institute; Ian Hickie, University of Sydney; Lesley Russell, University of Sydney; Peter Sivey, RMIT University; Philip Clarke, University of Melbourne
The budget includes a step towards modernising Medicare, through a new annual payment for each person with diabetes who signs up with a specific GP.
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Education experts respond
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Frydenberg may claim education is critical to the prosperity of our country, but his budget does not reflect this.
from shutterstock.com
Peter Goss, Grattan Institute; Steven Lewis, Deakin University; Susan Irvine, Queensland University of Technology
The government has delivered a pretty disappointing budget for education, with no secure funding for early childhood education and a recycled commitment of $300 for schools.
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