EDITION 1140
28 SEPTEMBER 2026

Good morning.

On this day in 1923, the British Mandate for Palestine formally came into force. Approved by the League of Nations the previous year, the Mandate incorporated the Balfour Declaration of 1917, under which Britain supported the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people while also undertaking to protect the civil and religious rights of existing non Jewish communities.

The Mandate lasted until 1948 and became one of the most consequential chapters in modern Middle Eastern history. More than a century later, many of the questions it failed to resolve still shape events today.

That is perhaps the thread running through this edition. Decisions about migration, infrastructure, technology, demographics and public policy can look manageable in the moment, yet their consequences may only become clear years later. This week, we look at the scale of Channel crossings, the march of AI data centres, London’s disappearing children, the growing economic impact of artificial intelligence and what happens when public confidence begins to fray.

Welcome to Edition 1140.

William Montgomery
Editor

1. HOW TO LEAD WHEN UNDER PRESSURE. Pressure reveals how you instinctively respond when decisions matter most. Some leaders rush. Others hesitate. Some become controlling, while others retreat. The challenge is not to eliminate those instincts, but to recognise them and develop the flexibility to respond differently when circumstances demand it. READ MORE

2. OUR DISAPPEARING CHILDREN. London’s population is growing, but its number of young children is shrinking. Between 2013 and 2023, the capital gained 506,000 residents, while the number aged under 10 fell by 99,100.  The consequences are already visible. Around 90 London schools have closed or merged in the past five years, with further falls in pupil numbers expected. Housing and childcare costs are among the pressures making the capital increasingly difficult for families. The decline is particularly sharp in inner London, where schools face shrinking budgets because funding follows pupil numbers. Why leaders should care: Demographic change rarely announces itself dramatically. It gradually reshapes demand for schools, housing, transport and public services. Your action:Look beyond today’s population totals. Ask how the age profile of the people you serve is changing, and what that means for tomorrow.

3. THE MARCH OF THE DATA CENTRES. Artificial intelligence may feel weightless, but the infrastructure behind it is enormous. Morgan Stanley estimated that $2.9 trillion would be spent on AI data centres between 2025 and 2028. The UK already has more than 520 data centres, with around 100 more planned. Their demand for power and water is vast. Globally, data centres used around 4.5 trillion litres of water last year, enough to meet the basic needs of 600 million people and already consume more electricity than France. Public resistance is growing over energy use, water consumption, visual impact and the relatively small number of permanent jobs created. Why leaders should care: AI is becoming as much an infrastructure story as a technology one. Your action: Look beyond the software. Ask what physical resources your AI ambitions will actually require.

4. MORE THAN THE BRITISH ARMY. Around 86,000 people have crossed the Channel in small boats since Labour came to power in July 2024. To put that into perspective, the entire Regular British Army numbers just 73,660. In other words, the number of people arriving across the Channel during a little over two years is greater than the full Regular strength of the Army. That comparison does not make those arriving an “army”; it simply gives scale to a number that is otherwise difficult to comprehend. Why leaders should care: Big numbers rarely mean much on their own. Good leaders give people context. Comparisons make scale understandable, memorable and harder to ignore. Your action: When presenting a large statistic, ask: what familiar comparison would help people grasp its true scale?

5. TOO FRIGHTENED OF DISCIPLINE? Last week, I appeared on GB News to debate whether military-style training should have a place in schools. I’m in favour. Not because children need shouting at or marching around a playground, but because many would benefit from more discipline, resilience, teamwork, leadership and personal responsibility. UK research into cadet-style programmes has found positive associations with behaviour, attendance, confidence and resilience, although the evidence on academic attainment is less certain. The obvious objection is that teachers and the curriculum are already stretched. Fair point. So don’t make teachers deliver it. Use trained instructors, veterans, reservists and cadet organisations. Military ethos is not about creating soldiers. It is about helping young people learn to lead themselves. Should military-style training form part of secondary education? VOTE HERE

6. WHO IS THE LAW STOPPING? Daniel Thomas, 37, has pleaded not guilty to criminal damage after allegedly slashing a migrant dinghy in the Channel while an emergency responder was still aboard. He has also denied failing to disclose his phone PIN to police. The optics have provoked considerable anger. Around 200 supporters gathered outside the police investigation centre following his arrest, against a backdrop of wider protests over small boat crossings. The legal issues are different, of course. But the contrast is striking: Britain continues to struggle to stop unauthorised Channel crossings while appearing highly effective at dealing with someone accused of interfering with one of the boats. Why leaders should care: Public trust depends not just on enforcement, but on whether enforcement looks coherent and proportionate. Your action: Look for places where you are policing the consequences more effectively than tackling the cause.

7. AI IS HELPING HOLD UP THE WORLD ECONOMY. Artificial intelligence is no longer simply changing how we work. It is now helping support global economic growth. The OECD expects the world economy to grow by 2.9% this year and 3.0% next year, despite higher energy costs and continuing disruption from the Middle East conflict. One reason it has proved more resilient than expected is the scale of investment in AI, which the OECD says is supporting production, trade and economic activity. There is a warning. The OECD says growth remains vulnerable to energy disruption, higher interest rates and the possibility that returns on AI investment disappoint. Why leaders should care: AI has moved from being a technology story to an economic one. Investment decisions being made today are already influencing global growth. Your action: Stop asking whether AI will affect your organisation. Ask where it already is, and whether you are capturing the benefit.

8. LOVE REALLY IS A NUMBERS GAME. A study produced for eHarmony calculated that, once factors such as age, location, attraction, relationship status and compatibility were applied, only around 84,000 people in Britain might satisfy the average singleton’s requirements. Against an adult population of more than 47 million, that works out at roughly one in 562. The research was intended to make a simple point: the more filters we impose, the smaller our potential pool becomes. And the more people we actually meet, the better our chances become.  Why leaders should care: We often complain about a shortage of suitable people while simultaneously creating ever longer lists of requirements. The same problem affects recruitment, succession planning and relationships. Your action: Review your “must haves”. Which are genuinely essential, and which are simply reducing your options?

9. STARLINK DOMINATES THE SKY. There are now more than 11,000 active Starlink satellites orbiting Earth. Remarkably, that means Elon Musk’s SpaceX operates roughly two thirds of all active satellites in orbit. What began with just two prototype satellites in 2018 has become the largest satellite constellation ever created, delivering broadband internet to homes, aircraft, ships - and increasingly vehicles - from low Earth orbit.  Why leaders should care: Transformation often happens gradually and then suddenly looks enormous. Starlink is a reminder that scale can change an industry before many of us have even noticed it happening. Your action: Look at your own sector and ask: what is growing quietly today that could dominate the landscape tomorrow?

10. THE BOTTOM LINE. Almost half of adults now eat their evening meal from a tray rather than around a table, according to a poll for a Jamie Oliver TV show. More than a quarter cook fewer than three meals a week, including one in 10 who never cook for themselves. Among Gen Z adults aged 18 to 24, one in 12 say they eat in bed most nights, while others eat at their desks. Overall, just 44% of adults mainly eat at a table. The dining table may not be dead, but it is clearly losing its seat at the table.