Selected Insights from the Emerging Markets
By Alexander Kalis
Managing Partner &
Head of Investments at
Milltrust International China has concluded its Communist Party five-yearly plenum in which President Xi Jinping consolidated his power. Gary Greenberg at Hermes Investment Management shares his views and analysis on the real change taking place in China, in particular in the global technology sector. In India, the IT sector continues to be supported by high returns on capital according to UTI's Head of Equity, with principal challenges revolving around the optimal deployment of corporate cash flows. Meanwhile, Milltrust's ASEAN Fund managers explain the favourable growth prospects of the Southeast Asian region despite possible inflation headwinds in 2018, coupled with a potentially stronger USD.
In Pakistan, following the reclassification of the country into the MSCI Emerging Markets index in May this year, significant risks and negative developments have built up, leading to a sell off in the equity markets in recent weeks. T Rowe price details the challenges facing the country and investors today. In Latin America, Brazil is witnessing a strong cyclical recovery despite the uncertain political environment. Scott Piper, manager of the Milltrust Latin America Fund shares his views. In the Middle East, investor concerns over Saudi Arabia have been overblown according to Khurram Shehzad, manager of the Milltrust SEDCO MENA Fund, and investors should see the current scenario as a long term investment
opportunity as the economy opens up to many sectors for investment. Finally, Russia has come out of recession and the World Bank forecasts that the economy will grow by 1.7 percent this year and next, and by 1.8 percent in 2019. For deeper insights from Milltrust, we invite you to download our complimentary Milltrust Q4 EM Insights Magazine. We hope you enjoy this issue.
ASIA NEWS China: Imitator Turned Innovator
Hermes Investment Management, 17 Oct 2017
China’s ruling Communist Party gathers for a five-yearly plenum in Beijing this week. But the political theatre is set to disappoint investors, with little policy reform expected to be announced. The real change, in our view, is the radical shift from imitation to innovation in China. As the technology sector expands rapidly, we assess its transformative impact on the nation’s economy. ASEAN Economies to Witness Decent Growth
By Kok Fook Meng and Soh Chih Kai, Milltrust ASEAN Fund, Oct 2017
ASEAN economies should still see decent growth in the next few quarters on the back of exports (Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia), infrastructure spending (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand), potentially higher consumption (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia) and government spending (Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand). However, inflation could see an uptick in 2018 on a low base in 2017 Too much pessimism over IT; pharma still not cheap: UTI MF’s Subramaniam
The IT industry is not in dire straits as the market is making it out to be,, says Vetri Subramaniam,, Group President and Head of Equity,, UTI Asset Management Pakistan: The Heat is On
T Rowe Price, September 2017
As we noted earlier this year (Pakistan: Banking on Reform, May 2017), Pakistan has been a successful investment outpost for our Frontier Markets Equity strategy since its inception in 2014.
LATIN AMERICA NEWSBrazil: Cyclical Recovery Continues to Plough Ahead
By Scott Piper, Milltrust Latin America Fund, Oct 2017.
In Brazil we began the last quarter of 2017 in a slightly different context than the one portrayed in our last report. While the data published in recent months strengthen the thesis of a recovery of activity and the labor market, inflation indices continue to surprise analysts to the downside, thus creating room for a much more substantial degree of monetary policy accommodation than even the most optimistic analysts could have expected at the beginning of 2017. However, the political environment remains an important source of uncertainty.
MIDDLE EAST NEWSConcerns on Saudi Arabia are Overblown
By Khurram Shehzad, Milltrust SEDCO MENA Fund, 18 October 2017
Concerns on Saudi Arabia are overblown. The political dynamics of Saudi Arabia are somewhat unique as is evident from the fact that many armchair analysts have been forecasting disastrous consequences since late 1990s and the timeline keeps on getting extended. RUSSIA & OTHER NEWSRecession in Russia over & economy moving to growth - World Bank
RT-20 minutes ago
The Russian economy has overcome the recession and returned to moderate growth this year, according to the latest report from the World ...
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