February 28, 2025

Welcome to FDD Action's Weekly Natsec Roundup.

☢️ IAEA reports sound alarm on Iran’s nuclear program: The IAEA reported this week that Iran has increased its stock of 60% highly enriched uranium by at least 50% since November 2024. The UN’s nuclear watchdog is raising concerns ahead of its meeting next week in Vienna.

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🚨 NEED-TO-KNOW THIS WEEK

President Donald Trump hosts a bilateral meeting with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Thursday, February 27, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Emily J. Higgins.)

1. The U.S. and Ukraine were supposed to reach a ‘framework’ mineral rights deal today, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Washington to meet with President Trump. The deal's future is now uncertain after a joint presser in the Oval Office went off the rails.

Deal or No Deal? Zelensky said the deal is only ‘preliminary’ and that its success hinges on the inclusion of adequate security guarantees, including military assistance. But, at least before the disastrous Oval Office meeting, President Trump was singing a slightly different tune. He called the deal confirmed, announcing “we’re going to be signing an agreement.”
A lot can change quickly: After the Oval Office debacle, Trump appeared to indicate the deal was off the table in a Truth Social post, where he stated Zelensky, "can come back when he is ready for Peace."
Where the deal stood: Zelensky reportedly rejected two U.S. proposals last week. The deal currently being discussed would establish a Ukrainian reconstruction fund. Ukraine would contribute half of future proceeds from mineral resources, oil, and gas. Ukraine has vast deposits of 22 of the 34 elements the EU classifies as “critical raw materials” for cutting-edge industries like advanced military equipment and electric vehicles.
Putin's playbook: The Trump-Zelensky Oval Office confrontation is a win for Putin. In his recent Washington Times article, FDD's Clifford D. May examines Russian President Vladimir Putin's consistent strategy to restore the Russian empire, suppress dissent, and challenge the West.

FDD CEO Mark Dubowitz moderated an exclusive fireside chat following a presentation with former Israeli PM and current Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, Feb. 25, 2025. (Photos by Jeff Song/FDD)

2. At FDD this week, former Israeli PM and current opposition leader Yair Lapid unveiled his Gaza reconstruction plan – one that “puts real meat on the bones to address concerns about Gaza,” said FDD CEO Mark Dubowitz.

Under Lapid's 'Egyptian Solution,’ Egypt would assume guardianship over Gaza for 8-15 years while the territory rebuilds and deradicalizes. Egypt would work to destroy remaining terrorist infrastructure and, with the U.S., lead rebuilding so Israel can ‘divorce’ itself from Gaza.
What's in it for Egypt? Lapid’s plan proposes paying off Egypt’s $155 billion foreign external debt. FDD’s Mariam Wahba explains, “This is [also] an opportunity for Egypt to assert itself as a problem-solver, domestically, regionally, and internationally."
So, what's your plan then? Egypt’s foreign ministry rejected the idea of Cairo taking control of Gaza, which begs the question: what's your plan? President Trump, Yair Lapid, and others are testing the waters with out-of-the-box ideas. It's now time for the Arab world to do the same.
Ceasefire update: Phase one of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is supposed to end Saturday. Now, Israeli negotiators are headed to Cairo hoping for an extension of the first phase. U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff is pushing for the large-scale release of Israeli hostages in a shorter timeframe.
Listen: FDD presents “The Day After: Yair Lapid’s Vision for a Peaceful Middle East.”

3. Al Jazeera is in the news (again!) this week for the wrong reasons, this time for having multiple senior Hamas officials speak at its 16th annual forum.

The Qatar-funded news outlet invited two U.S.-designated terrorists and Hamas officials, Osama Hamdan and Basem Naim, to speak on the Gaza war and change in Syria. Not a good look.
“The 7th of October was a historical achievement,” said Hamdan, praising Hamas’s massacre, rape, and mass-hostage taking operation. He also portrayed the war as a “victory” for the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance.
FDD Action’s Toby Dershowitz and Will Erens write that by offering Hamas a stage to champion their so-called ‘resistance,’ “Al Jazeera and its patron Qatar are, in effect, normalizing Hamas and its terrorism.”
October 7 survivors sue Al Jazeera: The lawsuit filed on behalf of dozens of survivors and victims’ families claims Al Jazeera knowingly assisted and helped terrorist organizations spread propaganda, recruit activists, and incite violence. The legal advocacy group leading the suit argues, “US law is clear: those who knowingly provide substantial assistance to terrorists are as guilty as those who carry out the attacks.”

🏛️ AT THE WHITE HOUSE

President Trump’s renewed ‘maximum pressure’ campaign is off to a strong start. The Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Iran’s illicit oil network on Monday. On Wednesday, the State Department also announced sanctions on Iran's UAV and ballistic missile programs.

Treasury targets: Five Iranian nationals, 17 oil brokers from jurisdictions including the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Hong Kong, and 13 “shadow fleet” vessels responsible for shipping millions of barrels of Iranian oil “valued in the hundreds of millions of dollars.”
State targets: Six entities based in the PRC, including Hong Kong, that have been involved in the procurement of key components by entities connected to Iranian proliferation.
This is the second round of sanctions the Trump admin has imposed on Iran's illicit and lucrative oil trade since taking office and the first targeting Iran's destabilizing proliferation activity.
Speaking of illegally transporting Iranian oil, one Chinese container ship, the Golbon, delivered 1,000 tons of a key rocket fuel ingredient called sodium perchlorate to Iran. FDD’s Behnam Ben Taleblu digs into Beijing’s decades-long support for Iran’s military priorities.
More background: Taleblu unpacked the growing size and quality of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal in a 2023 FDD monograph.

President Trump took aim at inbound and outbound PRC-linked investment with a new presidential memo establishing an “America First Investment Policy.”

Economic security is national security: The policy restricts PRC-affiliated investments in American strategic sectors, including technology, critical infrastructure, energy, and agriculture. It also calls for new rules to prevent U.S. firms and individuals from investing in PRC industries that advance its military-civil fusion strategy.
Success will depend on enforcement. “For President Trump, that means working with Congress to facilitate greater alignment, coordination, and, most importantly, resourcing across the entirety of the United States government,” explain FDD’s Elaine Dezenski and Max Meizlish. They unpack the new policy and the national security implications here.
Why so many restrictions? Beijing weaponizes foreign investment to tap into American advances in sensitive, cutting-edge tech and gain access to intellectual property. Both inbound and outbound investments in critical sectors risk supporting China’s destabilizing military modernization.
Dig into the details: FDD Senior Fellows Emily de La Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic went in depth on the implications of China’s venture capital playbook and the need to update U.S. policy in an FDD memo, “The Weaponization of Capital.” Worth a read.

📆 COMING DOWN THE PIKE

Today, February 28 –
President Zelensky is in Washington, DC to meet with President Trump in the hopes of finalizing a mineral rights deal that would offer security guarantees to Ukraine.

Saturday, March 1 –
Phase one of the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire ends as Israel sends negotiators to Cairo to push for an extension.

Sunday, March 2 –
White House Envoy Steve Witkoff may travel to the Middle East, if Israeli negotiators are successful in Cairo. He told CBS News that his five-day trip would include stops in Qatar, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

European leaders will gather in London to discuss common defense initiatives ahead of a special summit of European Union leaders scheduled for March 6.

Monday, March 3 –
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors will convene its regular March meeting at the Agency's headquarters in Vienna through the end of the week. Discussions will include verification and monitoring of the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear program.

Tuesday, March 4 –
Tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico take effect. Trump confirmed Wednesday that tariffs are set to go forward at the end of a 30-day pause that saw both Canada and Mexico commit to enhanced border security.

Unless... Mexico is considering a deal with the U.S. to impose tariffs of their own on Chinese imports and hopes to reach an agreement with Trump today. The Trump admin has previously signaled support for Mexican tariffs on cheap Chinese goods.

The SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE holds a hearing to consider Matthew Whitaker to be the U.S. Representative to NATO. Whitaker previously served as acting Attorney General in Trump’s first term.

The HOUSE HOMELAND SECURITY COMMITTEE convenes a subcommittee hearing, The Digital Battlefield: How Terrorists Use the Internet and Online Networks for Recruitment and Radicalization. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, the Founder & CEO of Valens and FDD Senior Advisor on Asymmetric Warfare, is set to provide comment on the emergence of online terror recruitment.

Wednesday, March 5 –
The SENATE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE holds a full committee hearing, Never to Be Silent: Stemming the Tide of Antisemitism in America. This will be the first Senate hearing focused on antisemitism since Hamas’s October 7 attack.

Why Now? American Jewish Committee CEO and former U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch joined the FDD Morning Brief on Wednesday to discuss AJC’s 2024 report, ‘The State of Antisemitism in America.’ The bottom line: 77% of American Jews say they feel less safe in the U.S. because of growing antisemitism.

The HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE holds a hearing, Bridging the Gap: Turkey Between East and West. FDD Executive Director Jonathan Schanzer is set to testify.

On Turkey’s Russia Ties: FDD’s Sinan Ciddi, Andrea Stricker, and Sophia Epley examine how a Russian-funded nuclear plant in Turkey was used to evade U.S. sanctions on Moscow.
Turkey left behind? Ciddi breaks down how Trump’s Middle East plans leave out Turkey as a regional focus while Ankara condemns Israel and bolsters the new regime in Syria.

The HOUSE HOMELAND SECURITY COMMITTEE examines how to counter ‘Threats Posed by the Chinese Communist Party to U.S. National Security.’ FDD’s China Program Senior Director Craig Singleton will provide recommendations on how the committee can protect U.S. national security from the CCP.

The HOUSE NATURAL RESOURCES COMMITTEE holds a hearing, Examining the Office of Insular Affairs’ Role in Fostering Prosperity in the Pacific Territories and Addressing External Threats to Peace and Security. FDD Non-Resident Senior Fellow Cleo Paskal will testify on PRC aggression.

Dig deeper: Cleo Paskal has testified before Congress on this issue a number of times, so use these testimonies to freshen up your Pacific Islands knowledge on the importance of preserving U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific and how the Compacts of Free Association with Pacific Island nations support U.S. interests.

The HOUSE SELECT COMMITTEE ON THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY holds a hearing, End the Typhoons: How to Deter Beijing's Cyber Actions and Enhance America's Lackluster Cyber Defenses. The committee will hear from a chief power grid scientist and U.S. government officials at the National Security Agency and Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

The SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE convenes a hearing, Advancing American Interests in the Western Hemisphere. The committee will hear from a panel of private expert witnesses.

🔍 WHAT'S MOVING ON THE HILL

✔ Endorsed: Encouraging the European Union (EU) to DESIGNATE Resolution – Led by Reps. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) and Brad Schneider (D-IL) in the House, this resolution calls on the EU to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. This legislation originally passed the 118th Congress by a vote of 411-14. It is also endorsed by AJC and JINSA. (Press Release)

✔ Endorsed: American Victims of Terror Compensation Act (H.R.1530/S.706) – Led by Reps. Mike Lawler (R-NY) and Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) in the House of Representatives and Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) in the Senate. This bill establishes a clear path for financial compensation to Americans injured in acts of international state-sponsored terrorism. It would require distribution of funds in 2025, ensure reliable distribution of future funds, and clarify existing statutes on terror-related compensation. (Press Release)

✔ Endorsed: PLO and PA Terror Payments Accountability Act – Led by Reps. Gottheimer, Lawler, Tenney, and Jared Moskowitz (D-FL), this bill would help end “Pay to Slay” payments where terrorists and their families are financially rewarded by the Palestinian Authority’s Martyrs’ Fund for deadly acts of terrorism against Israelis. (Press Release)

💡 HERE'S AN IDEA

Move beyond mere ‘coexistence’ and confront China's aggression. The administration and Congress have the opportunity to dispel the notion that China's authoritarian expansion is inevitable. FDD China Program Senior Director Craig Singleton testified before the House Foreign Affairs Committee. He laid out how the U.S. can change Beijing’s strategic calculus through credible deterrence, targeted economic pressure, and principled diplomacy.

Impose external pressures: A new administration can force the CCP to make difficult trade-offs between domestic priorities, global ambitions, and social welfare, ultimately undermining its ability to sustain both authoritarian control and economic growth.
Restrict Beijing’s access to U.S. markets: Restricting China’s access to strategic assets undercuts Xi’s broader modernization drive, from building a world-class military to dominating drivers of the next industrial revolution.
Credible threats of punitive action: Deterrence through uncertainty forces Xi to weigh whether each new provocation is worth the escalated cost, potentially delaying more aggressive moves.
Read more: Singleton outlined over two dozen recommendations for Congress, from sanctions and export controls to enhanced Taiwan support and public diplomacy.

Disrupt the China-North Korea relationship. China’s support for North Korean sanctions evasion has provided Kim Jong-un with steady revenue to protect his strategic priorities from nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs to elites. FDD Senior Adjunct Fellow Anthony Ruggiero testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on how to weaken North Korea’s economic ties with China, Iran, and Russia.

Start with a comprehensive strategy: The strategy should investigate the role of Chinese banks, individuals, and companies and how the administration will use diplomatic, economic, and military pressure on North Korea, China, and other sanctions evaders to address malign activities.
Disrupt North Korea revenues: The administration should focus on North Korea’s revenue-generating activities, including cyber activities, overseas laborers, and the use of highly skilled information technology workers.

📣 WINNING MESSAGES

📘 KEEPING UP W/ FDD

On Iran

Israeli Show of Force – ‘Death to Israel, Death to America’: Hezbollah Flexes at Massive Nasrallah Funeral Buzzed by Israeli Jets (FDD Flash Brief | February 23, 2025)

Hamas on Campus – Lawsuit Alleges Hamas Coordinated With Campus Protestors and Media in U.S. (FDD Flash Brief | February 25, 2025)

Possibility for Peace – Lebanon May Be Ready for Peace With Israel. Both Sides Need to Prepare (Hussain Abdul-Hussain | Haaretz | February 27, 2025)

On Israel

Max Financial Pressure – U.S. Must Pressure Qatar Not to Release Frozen Iranian Oil Revenues (Natalie Ecanow and Janatan Sayeh | FDD Policy Brief | February 21, 2025)

Blacklisted still – A ‘High Risk Jurisdiction’: FATF Keeps Iran on Blacklist, Calls for Countermeasures (Flash Brief | February 24, 2025)

China-Iran ties – Ship Carrying Chemical for Missile Development Docks in Iran (Behnam Ben Taleblu | FDD Policy Brief | February 25, 2025)

On China

The Tech Race – The Three Pillars of U.S. Technological Leadership (Dr. Georgianna Shea | The National Interest | February 24, 2025)

AI Geopolitics – The United States Must Become the AI Arsenal of Democracy (Jack Burnham | The National Interest | February 25, 2025)

Tech Strategy Reform – What DeepSeek Taught Us About The Gaps in US Tech Strategy (Nathan Picarsic and Emily de la Bruyère | Hinrich Foundation | February 25, 2025)

On Russia

Putin Profile – Meet Vladimir Putin: Let’s Reacquaint Ourselves with Russia’s Ruler (Clifford D. May | The Washington Times | February 26, 2025)

Comms, Web Sabotage – US and Allies Must Get Tough on Russia, China’s Deep-Sea Cable Sabotage (Jack Burnham | New York Post | February 27, 2025)

In Other News

‘Peace Through Strength’ Requires Increased Defense Spending (Bradley Bowman, Cameron McMillan, and Ryan Brobst | FDD Policy Brief | February 21, 2025)

The Pentagon must cut $50B of waste — put this weapon on the chopping block (RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery | New York Post | February 23, 2025)

10 Things to Know About Turkey’s Interventions and Influence in Syria (FDD Insight | February 24, 2025)

💖 ON A LIGHTER NOTE…

Have a listen (or watch)! Senator Fetterman was recently featured on one of FDD Action’s favorite podcasts, Call Me Back. He covered a range of topics with host Dan Senor, including why he remains such a steadfast supporter of the U.S.-Israel alliance despite the political costs. It is worth a listen over the weekend.

👋 Thanks for sticking with us! Until next week.

P.S. If you liked this and don’t want to wait another week for more, check out FDD Action’s new X account for endorsement updates and timely analysis on breaking national security news.