February 14, 2025

Welcome to FDD Action's Weekly Natsec Roundup.

💘 If you need something to fall in love with this Valentine's Day - here it is! Each Friday, we’ll bring you sharp analysis, policy updates, and actionable insights on the most pressing national security issues facing Congress.

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🚨 NEED-TO-KNOW THIS WEEK

President Donald Trump participates in a bilateral meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Jan. 27, 2020, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by D.Myles Cullen)

🚨Iran is working to fast-track its nuclear weapons program, according to U.S. officials who spoke to The New York Times.

U.S. intelligence now believes Iran is “exploring a faster, if cruder, approach to developing an atomic weapon,” which could enable Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons within six months of initiating the process.
FDD's Andrea Stricker explains that the regime's shift in approach could make it far harder to identify and stop dangerous nuclear weapons work.
To address the threat, Stricker calls for increased intelligence gathering and cooperation as well as a new round of joint military exercises with Israel, all aimed at deterring Tehran’s dash toward a bomb.

The future of Gaza is still being debated after President Trump's bold pronouncement that the United States should play a leading role in the enclave's redevelopment shook things up, bigly.

At least one Arab diplomat expressed openness to the Trump Plan. Yousef al-Otaiba, the ambassador of the United Arab Emirates to the U.S. stated on February 12 that currently there is “no alternative” to President Trump’s plans to bring peace to the Middle East.
Arab states remain unified against the displacement of Palestinians and in support of a two-state solution. However, President Trump has shifted the debate and forced countries in the region to grapple seriously with how they will address the crisis. Overall, this is a net positive.
What to watch: On Saturday, Hamas is expected to release three additional hostages, including American Sagui Dekel Chen.

The House Foreign Affairs Committee convened a hearing on USAID Thursday, marking the committee's first look at the agency since the Trump administration's recent actions to significantly downsize it, including a general freeze on foreign aid and plans for a dramatic workforce reduction.

Committee Chairman Brian Mast criticized certain USAID initiatives, labeling them as misaligned with U.S. interests and values and questioning their relevance to core American foreign policy objectives.
Former Representative Ted Yoho (R-FL) testified at the hearing, emphasizing the need to refocus USAID on its core mission. He acknowledged past mission creep and advocated for better aligning aid programs with U.S. national security interests to ensure they advance strategic objectives and continue to generate goodwill for the United States.
FDD's Mark Dubowitz and Ben Cohen recently published an op-ed applauding efforts to root out the rot at USAID, while arguing that we must now rebuild USAID so that the good work the agency has done in countries from Ukraine to the Democratic Republic of Congo can continue.

🏛️ AT THE WHITE HOUSE

President Trump reimposed maximum pressure on Tehran last week with a new National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) aimed at curtailing Iran’s nuclear weapons program and countering its malign influence.

The NSPM restores enhanced economic pressure on Iran with the aim of forcing the regime to the negotiating table. Trump wants a deal. In addition to strengthening sanctions, the NSPM calls for targeting Iran's oil exports, diplomatic influence, and access to international financial systems.
Lax sanctions enforcement under Biden allowed Iran to grow its oil exports, providing it with the funding to keep its economy afloat, advance its nuclear program, and back terror proxies across the Middle East.
Treasury targeted an international oil network soon after the NSPM was announced. Sanctions were placed on several entities facilitating the shipment of hundreds of millions of dollars of Iranian crude oil to China.

President Trump also announced sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC), signing an executive order in response to the court's lawfare against Israel and the potential implications for America's security.

The EO levies visa restrictions and financial sanctions against ICC officials found to have assisted in its investigations of U.S. citizens or allies.
Trump stated that the ICC abused its power by issuing arrest warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
The EO came after a failed Senate cloture vote recently on H.R. 23, the Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act, which also would have similarly imposed sanctions on ICC officials. H.R. 23 passed the House with broad and bipartisan support (243-140) on January 9, 2025.
Read more: FDD's Orde Kittrie explains how a lawless, politically-motivated ICC could be weaponized against the United States.

President Trump also withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) and defunded the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) ahead of last week's meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu.

The Trump administration previously withdrew from UNHRC in 2018 due to its anti-Israel bias and its failure to prevent the world’s worst human rights abusers from participating. The Biden administration rejoined the UNHRC as a full member in 2022 without securing significant reform.
UNHRC membership includes Cuba, Venezuela, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Russia, and China.
Read more: FDD's David May argues the UNHRC doesn’t need a makeover; it needs a full demolition and then — maybe — reconstruction.
Trump's UNRWA funding ban builds on actions Congress took last year to withhold funding to the flawed and failed agency.
UNRWA has a long history of employing terrorists and perpetuating antisemitism in its school curricula. Emily Damari, one of the recently released Israeli hostages, said she was held at an UNRWA-run facility.

📆 COMING DOWN THE PIKE

Today –
The Munich Security Conference (MSC) begins and runs through Sunday, February 16, at which Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul to discuss U.S.-South Korea relations, North Korea’s nuclear program, and trilateral cooperation with Japan.

Special Presidential Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg is traveling to Germany, Belgium, and Ukraine through February 22 to achieve the goal of "securing peace through strength in Ukraine and upholding the national security interests of the United States." Kellogg will participate in the MSC, visit the NATO and EU headquarters in Brussels, and meet with government officials and private citizens in Ukraine.

Two Perspectives on Munich & Ukraine –

Trump and Hegseth are half right. We cannot have Minsk 3.0: Europe must do more for itself. But it cannot be abandoned. (Ivana Stradner | The Telegraph | February 13, 2025).
Marco Rubio must convince Europe that ‘America First 2.0’ has replaced Biden-era US decline. (Peter Doran | New York Post | February 12, 2025)

Monday, February 17 –
South Korea’s Deputy Trade Minister visits Washington to discuss U.S. trade policies and tariffs on steel and aluminum imports with officials from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

Wednesday, February 19 –
The SENATE COMMERCE, SCIENCE, AND TRANSPORTATION COMMITTEE holds a full committee hearing, America Offline? How Spectrum Auction Delays Give China the Edge and Cost Us Jobs.

Thursday, February 20 –
The U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION holds a hearing, An Axis of Autocracy? China’s Relations with Russia, Iran, and North Korea. FDD Adjunct Senior Fellow Anthony Ruggiero will speak on a panel focusing on the economic linkages and sanctions evasion element of the axis.

On Background: FDD hosted a panel discussion on this very topic in October with FDD’s China Program Chair and former Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger, China Program Sr. Director Craig Singleton, and Michael Singh, Managing Director at The Washington Institute. They discussed Beijing's support for rogue regimes and what the U.S. and our allies can do to counter this challenge.

The SENATE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE holds an executive business meeting to consider S. 331, the HALT Fentanyl Act. This bipartisan bill would permanently classify fentanyl as a Schedule I controlled substance and impose mandatory minimum sentences for fentanyl trafficking. An identical bill sponsored by Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA) passed the House last week.

The SENATE ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES COMMITTEE holds a full committee hearing to examine research security risks posed by foreign nationals from countries of risk working at the Department of Energy’s national laboratories.

🔍 LEGISLATION WE'RE TRACKING

✔ Advanced in Committee: House Education & Workforce Committee Markup (Feb. 12) – The committee advanced four bills addressing foreign influence in U.S. schools, particularly from China, Iran, and Qatar. These bills—DETERRENT Act (H.R. 1048), PROTECT Our Kids Act (H.R. 1069), CLASS Act (H.R. 1005), and TRACE Act (H.R. 1049)—increase transparency over foreign gifts and contracts at U.S. universities and restrict federal funds to K-12 schools with CCP ties. FDD Action was pleased to endorse these bills.

✔ Endorsed: The United States-Israel Defense Partnership Act (H.R.1229/S.554) – Led by Reps. Joe Wilson (R-SC) and Donald Norcross (D-NJ) in the House of Representatives and Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and Gary Peters (D-MI) in the Senate. This critical legislation advances U.S.-Israel defense collaboration by expanding joint efforts to counter emerging threats and extend the War Reserve Stockpile for Israel (WRSA-I). The bill is also endorsed by AIPAC. (FDDA Press Release)

✔ Endorsed: IGO Anti-Boycott Act (H.R. 867) – Reintroduced by Reps. Mike Lawler (R-NY) and Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), this bill would prevent international governmental organizations (IGOs) like the United Nations from discriminating against Israel. This bill passed the House by voice vote in the 118th Congress and is also endorsed by the CUFI Action Fund and AIPAC. (Press Release)

✔ Endorsed: “Affirming the Threats to World Stability from a Nuclear Weapons-capable Islamic Republic of Iran” (H.Res.105/S.Res.43) – Introduced by Reps. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) and Mike Lawler in the House and Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), John Fetterman (D-PA), and Katie Britt (R-AL) in the Senate. This resolution affirms the severe threats that a nuclear-capable Iran would pose to world stability and asserts that the U.S. should consider all available options to address the threats of a nuclear Iran. FDD Action fully supports. (Press Release)

💡 HERE'S AN IDEA

Enforce Iran Sanctions. Sanctions enforcement against Iran and its supporters has been incredibly lacking the past four years. FDD Action’s Nick Stewart, who previously served as Chief of Staff of the Iran Action Group in the first Trump administration, breaks down policy options:

NSC Task Force: The U.S. should create an NSC-led task force to crack down on Iran’s oil exports—especially to China. Announce an additional tranche of energy sanctions soon to send a clear message to markets and importers: No more free passes.
Target the IRGC’s vast financial networks: Use existing authorities to sanction IRGC-linked companies and individuals. Iran’s terror financing machine should be cut off and dismantled at every level.
Revoke and narrow waivers: End the Qatar waiver to lock down $6B in Iranian funds. Revise the Iraq waiver (or revoke it altogether) to prevent $10B from being transferred to Oman. Tehran shouldn’t have easy access to any foreign reserves.

Target enablers of the fentanyl crisis. A day-one EO ordered international cartels to be designated terrorist organizations, empowering the government to not only target the cartels but also their facilitators like Chinese money-laundering organizations. FDD’s Elaine Dezenski explains how this could help punish enablers of the fentanyl crisis.

Unmask shell companies: Chinese criminal networks exploit opaque shell companies to launder money, disguise fake pharmacies, and obscure drug transport. Exposing these entities is critical to disrupting the fentanyl trade.
Protect the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA): Signed into law by President Trump, the CTA bans anonymous shell companies. Repealing it would undermine Trump’s executive order and cripple the DOJ’s ability to prosecute fentanyl traffickers.
Fund law enforcement efforts. Modernizing financial crime enforcement with AI-driven tracking would enable authorities to trace and terminate cartel revenue streams. Federal, state, and local agencies also need increased funding and staffing to act on intelligence.
READ MORE: FDD's Jack Burnham and Craig Singleton break down China's role in the fentanyl crisis and how President Trump is using trade measures to address it.

"Trump's Terrorism Designation of Criminal Cartels: Types of Designations and Potential Impacts" By Matthew Zweig, February 10, 2025, FDD Visual.

📣 WINNING MESSAGES

📘 KEEPING UP W/ FDD

On Iran

Nuclear Monitor – Iran May Be on the Verge of a Nuclear Weapon; Will Israel and the United States Act? (Andrea Stricker | The Algemeiner | February 6, 2025)

The Proxy Network – ‘Several Serious Blows’: Iranian FM Admits ‘Damage’ to Proxies (FDD Flash Brief | January 28, 2025)

Domestic Woes – Iranian Rial Falls to Record Low Amid Return of Trump’s ‘Maximum Pressure’ Sanctions (FDD Flash Brief | February 10, 2025)

On Israel

Qatar’s role behind Hamas – With Qatar, the Biden Administration Left Cards on the Table. Trump Should Play Them. (Natalie Ecanow | FDD Policy Brief | February 4, 2025)

Arms Sales to Israel – The Trump Administration Acts to Arm Israel and Signals Desire to Reform U.S. Security Assistance (Bradley Bowman | FDD Insight | February 12, 2025)

On China

Taiwan and U.S. Supply Chain Security – Whither the Silicon Shield: China’s Plans for Reunification and Supply Chain Risks (Nathan Picarsic | Townhall | February 12, 2025)

Catching up with DeepSeek – ‘AI’s Sputnik Moment’: Chinese AI Model DeepSeek-R1 Reportedly Surpasses Leading U.S. AI Models (Jack Burnham and Craig Singleton | FDD Policy Brief | January 30, 2025)

PLA biotech aspirations – New U.S. Export Controls Seek to Prevent China From Weaponizing Biotech (Jack Burnham and Johanna Yang | FDD Policy Brief | January 21, 2025)

CCP-linked projects in the U.S. – Chinese Battery Behemoth CATL: U.S. Sites and Operations (Craig Singleton | FDD Visual | January 6, 2025)

On Russia

Strategy for 2025 – Trump must counter Vladimir Putin’s coming deception games — here’s how (Peter Doran and Ivana Stradner | New York Post | December 19, 2024)

Russia-Ukraine Deal – Trump must keep arming Ukraine if he wants a good peace deal (RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery and John Hardie | Defense One | February 7, 2025)

Munich Security Conference – Marco Rubio must convince Europe that ‘America First 2.0’ has replaced Biden-era US decline (Peter Doran | New York Post | February 12, 2024)

🤣 ON A LIGHTER NOTE…

We’re all hoping for that special gift from that certain someone this Valentine’s Day. 💘 But if you think you're in for a rough holiday, imagine getting a $30,000 jewelry set—only to have it immediately destroyed by the U.S. government?

According to the newly released 2023 report on gifts to federal employees, some truly eye-popping presents came through the system, including an $11,000 Omega watch and that aforementioned bling fit for royalty. The intended recipients? CIA Director Bill Burns and another lucky (but not so lucky) CIA employee.

Government ethics rules ensured these extravagant tokens of affection met a swift and merciless demise. 💔