Turkey moves forward with border demining, but risk posed by Syria may make it safer to wait
March 1, 2012
www.sidarglobal.com

• Turkish governments have been making proposals to clean the landmines in the Turkey-Syria border since the early 1990s. However, the political process has been very slow, and no concrete steps were taken until 2010.
  
  
• On February 6, 20 international joint ventures were listed as finalists for bidding to demine the area. But several obstacles remain for the project; some of the losing bidders have complained about an opaque process, and critics question whether the work, which is not scheduled to start until next year, can be completed in time to meet Turkey’s obligations under the Ottawa Convention.
  
  
• Of greatest concern, of course, is the ongoing bloody civil conflict in Syria, which poses major risks, both geopolitical and logistical, to the project. Turkey’s active opposition to the Bashar al-Assad regime leaves it in a potentially vulnerable position on the question of de-mining.
  
  
• Ankara’s move forward with the bidding process suggests that officials think the Syrian crisis will resolve itself soon, but Assad’s refusal to budge and Russia and China’s involvement suggest otherwise.
  
  
• The economic and humanitarian gains for the border region would be great, as large swaths of land would be made safe for farming. Yet given the uncertainty of Syria’s situation, it might be safer for Turkey to wait and see what happens on the other side of the border before starting the de-mining work.
  

After years of debate, de-mining plan moves to final bidding
Debates over how best to clear the Turkey-Syria border of the land mines laid there starting in the 1950s have been ongoing for the past 20 years. Land mines were initially planted along the border to prevent smugglers, and then terrorists of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), from crossing into Turkish territory. The Turkish cabinet declared in 1992 that it would implement plans to demine the area, but no action was taken until 2010. Since then, there have been repeated unsuccessful efforts to find the right contracting formula for the clearing project.

Finally, the latest plan was initiated by the Turkish Ministry of National Defense, and after a very long short-listing process, 20 international joint ventures were announced on February 6 as finalists for bidding to clean the area. Another 30 ventures were eliminated, defense officials said, due to various technical and financial incapabilities.

On February 23, the Turkish Ministry of National Defense hosted the selected company representatives in a private meeting at the Ankara headquarters of the Mechanical and Chemical Industry Corporation (MKEK). There, officials briefed the bidders on the project and distributed project documentation. According to the plans, companies will submit their price proposals by June 15, and the ministry will make a decision on November 15. The actual demining operation will not begin until March 15, 2013. The offices of the NATO Maintenance and Supply Agency (NAMSA) are already involved in the process, and they will award a contract for the provision of quality assurance services, as listed on the agency website. According to initial plans, once an area is cleaned  and quality assurance completed, defense contractors Aselsan and Havelsan will team up to replace the land-mine buffer with a high-tech electronic fence to secure the border.

Syrian conflict is atop the list of roadblocks
The major obstacle in front of the demining process is the worsening crisis in Syria, which is likely to further deteriorate in coming months. Ankara’s opposition to the Bashar al-Assad regime over its bloody tactics in the conflict has increased Turkey’s vulnerability to a potential worsening of the situation. If the situation takes a turn for the worse in Syria and the conflict grows into a fully-fledged civil war, it will have a direct effect on Turkey’s southern border. It remains questionable whether it is a good idea to go ahead with demining when such a threat remains viable. This would also raise serious security problems for the demining project itself. A buffer zone and a humanitarian corridor for Syrian refugees have both been suggested as potential measures in which Turkey would take an active role, but going forward with demining would make both of these options very difficult. In naming the final bidders for the demining project, Turkey is sending a strong signal that it believes the Syrian crisis will end soon; however, Assad’s persistence in his refusal to bow to international pressure and Russia and China’s stubborn stance against any concrete international action suggest instead that the situation might drag on for some time.

Legal obstacles face the project as well. Some of the companies already eliminated from bidding say that there are some problems in the initial elimination process, arguing that the world-class contracting agencies require a standardized point system and established minimum criteria. Instead, no explanation of government decision-making has been given to the companies even after some of them asked for such an explanation. According to our sources, some companies are planning to file a legal case against the Ministry of National Defense, in an attempt to delay or restart the process. Some commentators believe that national security concerns were the major reason behind the lack of established criteria. This could raise further questions and trouble the government during the later phases of the project.

Another problem is related to the timeline of the project. Turkey has international obligations to clear the mines along the Syrian border under the 1997 Ottawa Convention, which prohibits the production, use, or stockpiling of land mines and requires states that are parties to the convention to clear all mined areas. Turkey ratified the convention on September 25, 2003, and as such is required to clear all land mines from its borders by March 1, 2014. The current plan does not call for demining to begin until March 15, 2013, sectoral experts believe that it is not realistic to complete the work and the quality assurance in less than 12 months, even with multiple companies working simultaneously.

A project worth pursuing, if the timing is right
Successful demining of the border region would have significant positive economic, development, and humanitarian effects. Currently, vast swaths of land cannot be used due to the danger of land mines, which cover an estimated area of 360 million square meters in the heavily agricultural area. Clearing the mines will help fulfill the promise of the government’s Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), which aims to boost economic activity and create jobs in the agricultural sector and possibly in other industries as well. According to the Turkish Institute of Agricultural Engineers, the area to be demined in Turkey comprises 53,375 acres in the provinces of Hatay, Kilis, Gaziantep, Sanliurfa, Mardin, and Sirnak—approximately 80% of which is suitable for agricultural use and 70% of which is irrigable. The institute estimates that the annual net income from agriculture in the de-mined areas could top $20 million.

Humanitarian considerations include the frequent accidental mine detonations along the Turkey-Syria border, which account for the majority of the country’s total deaths and injuries from land mines. People herding cattle, picking wild herbs, or collecting firewood run the constant risk of tripping mines. According to a local NGO, the Initiative for a Mine-Free Turkey, one person is killed or maimed by land mines in the area every three days—an average that has not changed since Turkey ratified the Ottawa Convention.

Turkey has been waiting to demine its Syria border since 1992, and it must finalize this process. However, the issues explained above raises significant questions about the timing of the project. SGA believes the Turkish government could make an official request for postponement to the secretary general of the United Nations regarding its obligations under the Ottawa Convention, asking for a delay until the crisis across the border is totally resolved. Given the current situation in Syria, such a request would not be unreasonable.<<

Cenk Sidar, Managing Director | +1 (202) 857-8066
Dr. Gareth Winrow, Director, Research Services | +1 (202) 857-8066

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