An apparent military coup in Zimbabwe has set the country on edge. Late in the night of Nov. 14, President Robert Mugabe, 93, was put under house arrest. The whereabouts of his politically powerful and ambitious wife, Grace, remain unconfirmed. Last week, after Ms. Mugabe was booed at a political rally, she blamed supporters of then-Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa. President Mugabe subsequently fired Mnangagwa, exiling him from the party he has served since he was a teenager.

That power play has backfired badly, argues South African scholar David Moore: Grace’s vengeance may have sparked her husband’s overthrow. Mnangagwa, the exiled VP, is a ruthless freedom fighter who helped keep Mugabe in power for four decades. What’s next for Zimbabwe? American political analyst Steven Feldstein says the next few weeks will determine if the country tilts toward democracy – or a new form of dictatorship.