The airstrikes on December 28 which led to the deaths of 35 civilians of Kurdish ethnic origin along the Turkish-Iraqi border in the Uludere district of Sirnak province in Turkey have raised tensions between the government in Ankara and Turkey’s Kurdish population. Apparently acting on faulty intelligence, the Turkish air force had believed that they were targeting a group of PKK terrorists, whereas the victims were a group of cigarette and gasoline smugglers. The attack prompted a series of protests and demonstrations by Turkey’s ethnic Kurds in southeastern Turkey and in Istanbul and the government has come under intense criticism from the mainly Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) and the main opposition party, the People’s Republican Party (CHP).

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) have come to the defense of the Turkish Armed Forces. Since AKP has largely secured complete civilian control over the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) within the last year, it was not an option for the party leadership to put the blame solely on the military, as they previously have done in the past in similar occasions. An investigation into the incident is being carried out by both civilian and military authorities. The government is preparing to pay financial compensation to the families of those killed and has not ruled out the possibility of issuing a formal apology. However, Prime Minister Erdogan has angrily accused the BDP of attempting to exploit the situation for its own political advantage by seeking to play the Kurdish ethnic card. The Prime Minister took particular offence at the BDP draping party flags over the coffins of the victims during the funerals in the region. This was a clear act of provocation since a few members of the group were known local village guards who fought against separatist terrorists.

Referring to the airstrikes as a “crime against humanity”, the BDP has effectively accused the military and the government of mass murder against Turkey’s Kurdish population. Reacting to Erdogan’s comments, the BDP leader Selahattin Demirtas has blamed the government for attempting to cover up the incident by rounding on the BDP. The BDP leader also gave a very aggressive speech at the parliament and went as far as blaming the prime minister for intentionally killing civilians, although all the indications point to a mistake. Days after the incident, tensions in southeastern Turkey escalated again after security forces killed two suspected PKK operatives in Diyarbakir. Protesting locals insisted that the two killed were not terrorists but unarmed university and high school students.

The most reasonable reaction came from the main opposition party CHP. The party’s deputy chairman, Sezgin Tanrikulu, declared that the government’s initial ”dismissive attitude” towards the incident had led to a dramatic shift in sentiment among the majority of the country’s Kurdish population who had been previously opposed to violence. The CHP has lodged a motion for parliament to conduct its own inquiry into the incident. The main opposition party is also pressing for a change in the law so that the victims’ families will receive a substantially larger compensation payment.

SGA believes that the Uludere incident may provide an opportunity for the AKP to reassess its position towards the Kurdish issue in Turkey. There do appear to be divisions within the AKP ranks. The Interior Minister, Idris Naim Sahin seems to be advocating the adoption of a hawkish military line to attempt to eliminate the PKK. The Interior Minister has even noted that so-called pro-Kurdish poetry and artistic works could give important psychological support to the PKK in its terror campaign. We believe this is a very dangerous position to adopt in such a fragile environment. In contrast, the deputy prime minister Besir Atalay looks to favor negotiations with the BDP and elements of the PKK in attempt to reach a peaceful solution to the Kurdish problem. This could involve continuing contacts with the imprisoned leader of the PKK and resuming talks between government officials and PKK representatives in third countries. In the past the lawyers of the jailed terrorist leader Abdullah Ocalan have served as intermediaries to relay messages to the government.

In our opinion, the position adopted by Erdogan is here critical. On January 3 the AKP leader insisted that there would be no let-up on military operations aimed against the PKK. The PKK itself, two days after the Uludere incident, had called for an “uprising” by Turkey’s Kurdish population against the ruling authorities. Bearing in mind previous failed attempts to crush the PKK, it would seem that a purely military solution to the Kurdish question will not work. There is also a need to differentiate the wider Kurdish issue from the problem of terrorism posed by the PKK specifically. The Turkish military may well be to blame for acting in a rushed manner on December 28 and the air force may have to revise its rules of engagement in future operations in northern Iraq and along the Turkish-Iraqi border. Also, the deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles is a new concept for the Turkish military and the lack of experience might have played its part in the incident. 

The incident could also have significant foreign policy implications. The source of the faulty intelligence is still not confirmed. The Undersecretary of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT) Hakan Fidan on Thursday denied the organization's involvement. Some argue that the framework of triple mechanism between Turkey, Iraq and the United States was behind it. The relationship between Turkey and the US might be considerably strained if it is proven that the US sources provided the faulty intelligence. On the other hand, if the faulty intelligence originated from Iraq, Turkish public opinion might read it as an effort to escalate the tension in Turkey and gain political leverage in the region. It should be noted that, according to media reports, the president of the Iraqi Kurdistan region Massoud Barzani sent $40,000 to the families of the victims on Thursday.

Advocates of a negotiated solution to the Kurdish question are placing their hopes on the democratization package that may be adopted in inter-party talks on drafting a new constitution for Turkey. Erdogan and other leading AKP members have previously spoken of the need to address the concerns of Turkey’s Kurdish population in the proposed new constitution. We think, however, that this will not be an easy task. It is exceedingly unlikely that the government will yield to the main demands of the BDP to grant autonomy to the largely Kurdish populated southeastern part of Turkey. There is also no guarantee that other measures will be adopted to appease Turkey’s Kurds such as extending education in Kurdish and agreeing on a new concept of citizenship which does not refer to any ethnicity. The situation in southeastern Turkey will likely remain tense for the foreseeable future, but the AKP government will take some comfort from the fact that the PKK’s call for an uprising has gone unheeded.