Reading the pendulum
At the last Victorian State Election in November 2010 the Coalition secured a narrow majority in the Legislative Assembly, winning 45 seats to the ALP’s 43. The first electoral redistribution for 12 years in 2012-2013 has delivered a very different electoral landscape or pendulum, however. Some electorates were abolished, several others were radically redrawn or given new names.
Initially, the overall changes superficially appeared to favour the Coalition, as the redistribution turned five marginal ALP electorates into marginal Liberal seats. However, with Labor incumbents re-contesting four of the five notionally Liberal marginals, and with one of their marginal MPs having become an independent, the Coalition will miss out on the normal benefits of incumbency, or the 'sophomore surge effect.'
The fact that Labor can get to 44 seats just by getting its incumbents re-elected, and to 45 by picking up Frankston from Geoff Shaw, must have Coalition strategists concerned.
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When the swing’s not on
Other factors come into play when there is not a strong across the board swing likely to generate a uniform outcome at an election. The following is as much ‘ínsider’ conjecture as it is science, but worth a thought nevertheless.
The benefit of incumbency
Much argued about by political aficionados, it is generally accepted that incumbency bestows some electoral advantage to a sitting MP at election time. A noted factor in the USA’s political system, there is a great deal of conjecture – and little research – as to the quantifiable benefit of incumbency in Australian politics.
The few studies available, combined with conventional wisdom, suggest incumbency may be worth around 3% of the vote, on average, though longer serving members and those in regional seats may have more incumbent value than a first-term, city electorate MP.
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The donkey vote
Just as with the benefit of incumbency, the value of the donkey vote has long been debated. A donkey vote is a ballot cast in a preferential voting election, where the voter ranks candidates in the order they appear on the ballot paper: first preference for the first-listed candidate, second preference for the second-listed candidate, etc. As far back as 1968, Malcolm Mackerras suggested it was worth between 1 and 3%. More recent estimates place it as 1 in every 15 votes cast, or just over 1%.
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A word on the polls
At the last Victorian State Election the Coalition won 51.6% of the two-party preferred vote. The latest Newspoll has them on 46% which represents a 5.6% swing.
If this were the result on 29 November, and there were a uniform swing, the pendulum indicates that the ALP would pick up 12 seats on the Coalition side of the pendulum taking them to a total of 52 and leaving the Coalition with 36.
Still, a lot can change in three and a half weeks.
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What the bookies think
Going into the election the overall odds on a Coalition win varied between 3.50 and 4.75 depending which betting agency website you looked at. What was more interesting was the individual seat markets which Sportsbet helpfully provides.
Given the polls, the ALP unsurprisingly started the campaign as the favourite in all 40 seats on its side of the pendulum. Interestingly, the most vulnerable according to the odds, is the sixth-most marginal, Macedon, where the margin is 2.3% and Labor’s odds are 1.70.
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The caretaker period and its conventions
On Monday this week the writs were issued for the November 29 state election. The writs, signed by the Governor, dissolve the Parliament and authorise an election to be held.
This action triggers an unusual form of government, known as the caretaker period. It is the one time that Victorians are not legally represented by a local member of Parliament, but rather governed by the Premier and his Cabinet. The caretaker period only ends when the next Premier is sworn in by the Governor.
Just how the caretaker period operates is not enshrined in legislation but by a set of generally agreed conventions that have more or less been accepted since the very first caretaker period in 1901.
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