Victoria – a Labor state?
Many people have speculated why a first term government is in such danger of losing this Saturday night. Perhaps the simplest explanation is that, all other things being equal, Victoria is a naturally Labor state.
Yet, Victoria was once considered the jewel in the crown of the Liberal Party. Not only did the Liberals hold office at state level from 1955 to 1982, they dominated in Federal elections in Victoria in the same period. In the ten Federal Elections from 1955 to 1977, the Coalition won the two-party preferred vote in Victoria in eight of them, with 1972 and 1974 the only exceptions.
Around 1980, this completely changed. From 1980 to 2013, there have been 13 Federal Elections and, in Victoria, the Coalition has only reached 50 per cent of the two party preferred vote twice, in 1990 and 2004.
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A word on the polls
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Based on the final polls available to us as we go to print, one day before the election, the evidence strongly suggests either of the parties' campaigns have largely failed to move voters one way or the other.
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Election policy and promises wrap
Campaigning 2014-style has reduced policy discussion to a series of daily announceables. No frameworks, no statement of principles, no reform programs to speak of.
This election, family violence is receiving long-overdue attention, while environmental issues are surprisingly absent. Traditional areas like roads, public transport, schools and hospitals remain at the fore, though police (ie promises of lots of extra police) has slipped from its usual place in this pack.
There’s been less focus on energy and climate policy, we’ve avoided a race to the bottom on tougher sentencing, and both sides promise there’ll be no new taxes.
To read a recap of the promises and the policy focus to date, click here
What the bookies think
Having shortened a little in the penultimate week of the campaign, the punters have deserted the Coalition in the final week. The odds of a Coalition have returned to the price they were after the second week around the 5.50 mark.
In the seat-by-seat betting there has been a trend where both major parties have consolidated their positions in their fairly safe seats leaving the battle being fought in just a handful of marginals.
On the Labor side of the pendulum, the Craig Langdon factor has seen Ivanhoe almost displace Macedon as the ALP’s most vulnerable seat.
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Picking the winner early Saturday night
On Saturday night you can be ahead of the game in understanding who will win the election. There are a few signposts that will help you call the result first in your house!
The 2013 redistribution altered the boundaries of some ALP seats, in effect they became Liberal seats (based on 2010 election results). If early results indicate the ALP is on track to win Monbulk (Lib 1.1%), Ripon (Lib 1.6%) and Bellarine (Lib 2.5%), then it’s probably time for the ALP supporters in your household to think about opening a nice bottle of red.
Prahran (Lib 4.7%) is an interesting electorate, and political insiders are talking about it. With a very mixed demographic, local factors play a unique role and if early results suggest the Liberal Party is losing Prahran, then it might be time for ALP households to place the unopened red back on the rack and open the champagne.
Those looking for signs that the Liberal Party will win need to keep an eye on some different seats. In addition to holding all their sandbelt seats (Carrum 0.3%, Frankston 0.4% , Bentleigh 0.9% and Mordialloc 1.5%) the Liberal Party needs to pick up a couple of others. Which ones?
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