No images? Click here Barely Gettin' By A New Deal for America? There’s a very real sense in which Donald Trump’s presidency didn’t have to happen. Even with the most favourable odds, pollsters only gave Trump about a 30 per cent chance of winning the 2016 Presidential Election. We know (how many times have we been reminded?!) that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, and that only the Electoral College got Trump across the line. Donald Trump scraped into the Presidency. But yes, Trump became President, and he became President lawfully, under the rules of an electoral system that has proved remarkably durable despite its obvious faults. As historians, we are always trying to figure out how things come about. Even before 2016 this meant spending a lot of time being uncertain and confused about the present—and don’t get us started on when someone asks us what ‘history tells us’ about the future. But one thing we’re sure of: Donald Trump didn’t come out of nowhere. He is as much a part of American history as Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party, and the Republican establishment, none of whom are blameless in helping him to power. The Electoral College, which has shaped many elections in the past, and has its own origins in one of the oldest American institutions, slavery, is also part of that history. And, since becoming President, Trump has embraced dark aspects of America’s past: heavy-handed and racist policing, cronyism, and the dynastic politics that make his White House look like an alternate-reality Kennedy Camelot. Donald Trump is not an accident. And much as we’d like another America, this is the America we have, and the America that is heading to the polls on 3 November. Presidential elections are always important. In 1932, Franklin Delano Roosevelt won a sweeping victory in the midst of a global depression that was, until very recently, totally unprecedented. In 2008, Barack Obama made history as the first Black President, an achievement many Americans thought impossible right up until it happened. But even transformative Presidents rarely leave the past behind. FDR’s New Deal was important, but it wasn’t nearly as radical, or effective, as myths suggest. The New Deal reshaped American liberalism, Federal institutions, and made capitalism more transparent, but it hardly contested capitalism’s role in American democracy. And nor did Barack Obama, who came to the Presidency at a moment when a system of predatory capitalism and structural iniquities was coming apart—then put it back together. That all said, this Presidential election looks like a genuine rupture between two visions of America’s future. If Trump wins, which is entirely possible, no matter what the polls are telling us, we can expect more of the social unrest and violent state repression we’ve seen over the last few months. The Republican Party has no real platform other that unconditional support for the President. Given a second term, Trump will face no internal restraints, and nor will his supporters. Border agents, already acting with almost total impunity, will continue their genocidal attack on migrants. There will be no meaningful action to contain the pandemic ravaging the country. Trump will be further empowered to attack or ignore ‘blue states’ facing climate fires and devastating storms. Under a second Trump term, America will lose all chance of meeting anything close to its Paris Climate Targets. A Joe Biden Presidency would, undoubtedly, save America and the world from another four years of Trump. Biden is promising an American restoration: a course-correction, if you like, after four years of chaos. But is this what America needs in 2020? Biden is an establishment figure. He was Obama’s Vice President, a Senator and Democratic Party insider for half a century, whose ‘tough on crime’ legislative record has made him the target for criticism from racial and social justice campaigners. Biden’s ambitious plans on climate can be largely credited to the work of activists who pushed the climate crisis to the top of his agenda. Advocates of a Green New Deal are still on high alert for any signs of a Biden presidency, a Congress and a Senate that doesn’t do enough to arrest global carbon emissions. Even if Biden does win, and makes it into the Oval Office (a big ‘if’), without the Senate his promises will become irrelevant anyway. It seems obvious, but it’s worth saying again: what happens after 3 November will tell us more about a Biden presidency, than any promises and undertakings he makes on the campaign trail. This election also means a lot for Australia. One of Biden’s advisors recently flagged that, as President, Biden would push for greater accountability on climate from other nations, including Australia. If this is true, it’s unlikely Scott Morrison could get away with showing off lumps of coal (or maybe gas canisters) in parliament in the future. After the Trump administration’s incoherence on diplomatic and trading relations with China, a Biden White House seems likely to be both more hawkish, and more effective in corralling allies to curb China’s international influence. On both climate and foreign policy, where America goes, so does Australia. This is what’s at stake in 2020. As Kamala Harris would say, it’s a lot. We’ll be with you for the next six weeks of the campaign (and for a little while after) to try to make sense of what’s going on, and also point you in the direction of the podcasts, articles and essays that are helping us understand a Presidential election like no other. What We're ReadingIn self-promotion corner, Emma wrote about America’s converging crises for ABC Ethics & Religion: Read this story on the ABC Why the American media needs to stop treating Trump like a normal President, and the US like a democracy: Read this story on The Correspondent Veteran climate activist Bill McKibben on why we should all follow the lead of young campaigners as wildfire devastates the US West Coast: Read this story on the New Yorker Trump’s opponents are war-gaming for a stolen election, but they should worry about how he might win it: Read this story on The New Republic Follow usListen to all episodes of Barely Gettin' By |