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Thinking Futures Newsletter

February 2011

 

Building strategic foresight capacity to strengthen your strategy

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Welcome to the February Newsletter

 

 

 

Hello and welcome to this month’s newsletter. I hope you enjoy the regular content - From the Blog and Scanning Snippets.

Quick Notes makes its debut in this newsletter – musings on research I’m doing at the moment. As I write in the title block below, these musings are thinking in progress, and represent but an overview of that thinking. Send me your comments and thoughts online at Twitter, LinkedIn or Facebook (click on the icons at the bottom of the newsletter to get in touch).

Till next time…
Maree

 

 

 

 

A Quick Note: Sustainable Growth?

Quick Notes are an overview of research I’m doing at the moment, and represent some ideas emerging – it’s thinking in progress…

The global financial crisis demonstrated all too clearly that a focus on growth and making money has great risks, and not only in the short term. The continuing focus on growth as the primary economic driver, based on the measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while not taking into account connected social and environmental impacts, is probably be a concept that has passed its use-by date. But what could replace it?

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) makes it look like we are dealing with the impacts of business operations on finances, the environment and society – but this seems to be rapidly becoming a tick the box activity. Recent research (see Herman Trend Report) suggested that people in the USA are now less likely to be environmentally aware in their daily habits than in the past, a shift put down to needing to focus on short-term financial survival rather than long-term sustainability – which is understandable, but I wonder why the two are mutually exclusive?

What is clear is that maintaining growth as the primary driver of economic activity is not sustainable over the long term. This is not a new message: the book Limits to Growth had the same message, and it was published in 1972. Since then, there have been many books and articles demonstrating why unfettered growth is not sustainable.

We know this. The data is pretty irrefutable and there is much effort being expended on thinking about a sustainable future (see Pashmina Paradigm Shift Analyzer and Vision 2050). So why have we reverted to growth as the economic driver after the global financial crisis? Even though it’s being called ‘the new normal’, it’s the same paradigm, tweaked at the edges. Some companies (see z-punkt) are now offering services to help companies focus on sustainability as a growth strategy, and this would seem to be a more holistic approach to take to strategy. Other companies are making an effort to be sustainable in the complete sense of the word – not just financial sustainability.

A recent Seth Godin blog suggested that “the perception of risk is skewed when bad outcomes are vivid, personal and immediate’, which supports the green fatigue effect identified earlier. He went on to say that the media ‘take concepts that were previously abstract and relentlessly make them vivid, personal and immediate. It amplifies the risks around us’. Or at least our perceptions on those risks.

Our obvious task then continues to be to make a sustainable future ‘vivid, personal and immediate’. Many people have been trying to do that for some time, with limited success. If the implications of our actions now for future generations and the planet are clear, why doesn't behaviour change on a large scale? While individuals may change their behaviour, our larger systems do not.

People change systems though, so what is the trigger or tipping point that will start to generate systemic change? How do we need to frame the message about the lack of sustainability in our current lifestyles, and its future, long term impact so that it is vivid, personal and immediate? Of course, the issue is much bigger than I have the space for here, and needs to take into account other factors related to our thinking styles, stages of consciousness development and the nature of the broader civilisational challenge that faces us all. Richard Slaughter has called his latest book The Biggest Wake-Up Call in History and that’s probably a good description of what is needed at the moment.

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Some References
The Pashmina Paradigm Shift Analyzer
Vision 2050, World Business Council for Sustainable Development
z-punkt Sustainability as a Growth Strategy
Herman Trend Alert: People Experiencing Green Fatigue
Seth Godin’s Blog, Misjudging Risk and Bad Decisions
The Biggest Wake-Up Call in History

 

 

 

 

From the Blog
Recent Posts from the Thinking Futures Blog

 

Higher Education Futures

 

What will our higher education institutions and the work they do ‘look’ like in the future?  The world changes quickly, in ways that we can’t really imagine today, and our strategy must be designed to be futures ready – to be ready for many possible futures. So, what can we do today to shape that future and be ready for it?

 

To think in a meaningful way about the future of higher education, we must first activate our foresight capacity. Unless we activate that capacity, all our planning about the future will be based on what we know about the past and the present, which is well…dangerous, given the amount of change we see and feel all around us.

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Description: Description: Description: Description: Description: Description: Description: Description: rule1Doing Environmental Scanning Part 4: Recording Your Hits

 

Okay, you have your focus, the scanning team is in place, your keywords are decided, and you’ve started to scan.  How do you keep track of what you are finding?

 

At its simplest, you can use your computer’s folder system to store copies of documents, and a social bookmarking site like delicious or diigo to record website links.  If you make sure you use the same tags and keywords in both places, this will work – if you are not dealing with huge amounts of information. Even if you start off small, over time you will amass a lot of information, and the biggest challenge then becomes searching and retrieving that information when you need it.

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Description: Description: Description: Description: Description: Description: Description: Description: rule1The Value of Futures Approaches in Strategic Planning

 

How do futures approaches ‘add value’ to those processes we now call strategic planning?

 

Organisational planning processes usually focus on the relevant industry sector and mainstream trends, both locally and globally, and develop strategy in response. This focus is essential.  So what’s different with futures approaches?

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Scanning Snippets
Signals of interconnected drivers of change

LMS Goes Open Source

A Utah-based company has fired a warning shot across the bow of learning management system (LMS) companies, including market leader Blackboard, with the announcement that it's turning its new LMS into open source. Instructure has publicly released the source code to its Canvas learning management system.

 

Facebook of Science Aims to Reshape Peer Review

The Faculty of 1000 is a large network of leading scientists which some call "the Facebook of science" - plans are to turn it into a force that will change the nature of peer review. The vision is to transform scholarly papers from one-shot events owned by publishers into evolving discussions among those researchers, authors, and readers.

 

Student Visions for Education

The Visions of Students Tomorrow” is a new video- collaboration project to generate a conversation about the “media-ated life” of many students. The proejct aims to not only to gain insights into how students interact with their dense and ever-changing media environment, but also to tackle the question of whether instructors have kept pace with it.

 

10 Most Innovative Countries in the World

An assessment of innovative countries using an index provided by the Legatum Prosperity Index that includes factors like low start-up costs, entrepreneurial culture, IT infrastructure and commercialisation capacity.

 

 

 

About Thinking Futures

Maree Conway runs Thinking Futures, a strategic foresight practice based in Melbourne, Australia. Thinking Futures works with you to deliver environmental scanning, strategic thinking and strategic planning services to strengthen your strategy. Find out more at our website or follow Maree online.

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Thinking Futures
PO Box 2118 | Hotham Hill | 3051 Australia |
E: maree.conway@thinkingfutures.net
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