Welcome to FDD Action's Weekly NatSec Roundup. 🚀 Since March 15, American airstrikes have hammered the Houthis, Iran’s terror proxy in Yemen. But has the two-month campaign effectively deterred their aggression against U.S. and allied targets and sustainably restored freedom of navigation in the Red Sea? A new FDD monograph offers a framework for U.S. officials to cripple Houthi capabilities. More on this strategy and its recommendations are below. 💡 Have news tips or other
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24/7 operations continue against Iran-backed Houthis from CENTCOM forces aboard USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) and USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), April 27, 2025. (U.S. Central Command Public Affairs)
1. President Trump announced a ceasefire with the Iran-backed Houthi terrorist group on Tuesday. The deal, brokered by Oman, appears to mark the end of America’s seven-week campaign to reestablish freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and degrade the terror group's
capabilities.
- Success or failure in Yemen? Trump said the Houthis told the U.S. that “they don’t want to fight anymore” and will stop “blowing up ships” after U.S. airstrikes killed Houthi fighters and leaders and weakened the group’s capabilities. The Houthis, however, called the U.S. position “an expression of helplessness and failure” and warned against further escalation. U.S. defense officials told CNN the impact of American strikes was “limited” and hindered by the downing of
seven U.S. surveillance drones by the Houthis. Notably, Houthi strikes on Israel do not appear to be included in the deal.
- The long and short of it: To deter the Houthis in the short term, target Houthi stockpiles of cash and fuel as well as the key security leaders enforcing Houthi control of Yemen, writes Ari Heistein. To be effective in the long term, the U.S. must undermine the four key pillars supporting the Houthi regime: information
dominance, revenue streams, foreign support, and the weakness of opposition inside Yemen. Ultimately, Iran is at the heart of the Houthi threat, and unless we stem Iran’s financial and weapons assistance, any deal’s effects will be temporary. Congress and the admin must work together on a long-term strategy to degrade the Houthi threat.
- On the Israel front, a Houthi missile slipped through Israeli air defenses Sunday, landing near the main terminal of Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport and causing several injuries. The Houthis also announced they’d impose a “comprehensive air blockade” of Israel by targeting airports. In response, Israel struck major Houthi targets, including the Hodeida Port and Sanaa Airport – critical thoroughfares for Houthi finances and weapons.
- Consider U.S. allies and partners: FDD’s Bradley Bowman cautioned, “An agreement that does not also demand and enforce an end to attacks on our allies and their vessels by the Houthis would be a serious mistake.” Moreover, RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery explained a ceasefire before holding Iran accountable is premature. Rather, “the United States should attack Iranian drone production facilities and port facilities that supply
the Houthis as well as the Iranian spy ships that support Houthi targeting. This action would benefit the United States vis-à-vis the Houthis, Israel vis-à-vis Iran, and Ukraine vis-à-vis Russia.”
2. Next week’s visit to the Middle East will be President Trump’s first official foreign trip. The trip offers the Trump administration an opportunity to advance its regional policy objectives from nuclear nonproliferation and the Abraham Accords to economic cooperation.
- The itinerary: Trump is expected to stop first in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) for bilateral talks on Tuesday and then hold a summit with Gulf state leaders the following day. Trump will then travel to Doha to meet with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim al-Thani before visiting Abu Dhabi for talks with the Emirati leader. What's missing? There's no stop scheduled in Israel, although Israeli officials are urging the President to visit.
- The agenda: Speculation abounds as to deliverables, but Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has reportedly suggested that new Abraham Accords announcements are coming soon. According to other reports, there may be a U.S.-Saudi deal on civil nuclear cooperation, perhaps without any conditions for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel. Other topics of discussion could include trade deals and arms sales.
- Nuclear alarm bells: One idea under consideration for a civil nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi is a “black box” arrangement where only U.S. personnel could access Saudi uranium enrichment facilities, but even this would undercut the admin’s position on dismantling Iranian nuclear enrichment. As recently as 2023, the Saudi Crown Prince stated his intention to acquire nuclear arms if Iran does. You can see how a nuclear arms race could spiral from there. No enrichment is the gold standard.
- Longstanding U.S. policy is to decline requests from allies and partners to share uranium enrichment technology, explain FDD’s Andrea Stricker and Anthony Ruggiero. The only good approach to U.S.-KSA civilian nuclear cooperation from a nonproliferation standpoint would be for the U.S. or allies to handle enrichment and send the fuel back, Stricker warns.
- Red flags in Doha: As FDD Executive Director Jonathan Schanzer explains, Qatar “is a financial patron of both Hamas and the Taliban” and is the long-time safe harbor of many senior Hamas officials. Trump’s upcoming visit “is an opportunity to reset the dynamic of the U.S.-Qatar relationship,” argues FDD’s Natalie Ecanow. For one, Qatar’s Major Non-NATO Ally status should be on the chopping block if it will not divorce from Hamas or sufficiently address terror financing concerns – as it pledged to do in the first Trump administration.
- A critical moment in Gaza: Israel set the end of Trump’s visit as the deadline for a new hostage and ceasefire deal and approved an expanded ground operation into Gaza if no deal materializes. Meanwhile, Trump teased a “very, very big
announcement” that he plans on unveiling during this trip, which is reportedly an international aid plan for the Gaza Strip.
President Donald Trump participates in the swearing-in ceremony for U.S. Ambassador to China David Purdue, May 7, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
3. Talks about talks, as Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jameison Greer are scheduled to meet with a Chinese economic team in Switzerland this weekend.
- Hold ’em or fold ’em: President Trump said Wednesday that he would not consider lowering tariffs on China to get Beijing to the negotiating table. According to Chinese government data released today, Chinese exports jumped in April, up 8% from last year. The increase was driven by trade with Southeast Asia, while shipments to the U.S. saw
a major slowdown. This suggests Chinese factories are trying to make the most of the 90-day pause as other countries seek to quickly fulfill U.S.-destined orders. Meanwhile, Chinese imports have fallen amid weakening internal demand.
- China’s internal economic woes: Protests have sprung up across China over unpaid wages and unfair dismissals from closed factories. China could lose 16 million manufacturing jobs if tariffs remain at 145%, exacerbating China’s youth unemployment. In mid-2023, over 20% of Chinese youth were unemployed, which Beijing resolved by pausing publication of youth unemployment in August 2023, before claiming a few months later that the rate fell to 14.5% by early 2024.
- Targeting Chinese oil imports from Iran: The U.S. Treasury sanctioned a third Chinese “teapot” oil refinery, alongside three port terminal operators, for facilitating illicit Iranian oil worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Teapot refineries are small, privately owned oil refineries that insulate larger, state-owned Chinese oil companies from sanctions. Six vessels, six shipping companies, and two vessel captains were also designated for their roles in undermining U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil.
- Turn it up a notch: The White House should target Chinese corporate executives flaunting U.S. oil sanctions, urge FDD Action’s Matt Zweig and FDD’s Saeed Ghasseminejad. This could facilitate resignations from corporate boards and boost sanctions compliance from Chinese firms. Sanctioning board members and shareholders of strategically significant Chinese firms in Iran’s oil trade can create a cascade of sanctions and compliance across subsidiaries.
Meanwhile, limiting China’s access to cheap oil will also help increase U.S. leverage in trade negotiations.
- Protecting American pharmaceuticals: In April, the Trump administration initiated a Section 232 investigation into U.S. pharmaceutical imports from China, which could allow Washington to restrict further imports if dependence is found to undermine U.S. national security. FDD’s Jack Burnham and Johanna Yang offered public comment on the investigation, highlighting the close links between China’s private medical sector and military. “Beijing’s strategy to harness the country’s pharmaceutical sector in pursuit of economic growth and military dominance poses a direct threat to U.S. national security,” the pair warned. They urged the administration to secure American supply chains from Chinese interference.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth signs a flag officer memorandum at the Pentagon, Washington, D.C., May 5, 2025. (DoD photo by U.S. Air Force Senior Airman Madelyn Keech)
1. The Trump administration announced its defense budget for Fiscal Year 26, as the Pentagon continues an overhaul of its strategic priorities.
- Misleading topline: Despite the Trump administration’s promise for a $1 trillion Pentagon budget, it actually requested an $893 billion base defense budget for FY26 and, in an unusual move, an $150 billion defense appropriation in the “reconciliation” legislation that Congress has yet to pass and that will be spent over several years. If added together, it would help the administration’s claim that this is a 13% increase in total defense spending. However, the stagnant baseline for FY26 is cause for concern and actually a cut in real terms when considering inflation.
- Peace through strength deferred? “A base defense budget that does not even keep pace with inflation ignores...growing threats and risks leaving U.S. forces insufficiently prepared to deter and defeat aggression,” warn FDD’s Bradley Bowman and Ryan Brobst. Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (R-MS) raised similar concerns, pledging to work with the administration to implement the budget needed for its “Peace Through Strength” agenda.
- Call on Congress: Congress should 1) appropriate the full $150 billion in reconciliation defense spending; and 2) authorize and appropriate before October 1 a Department of Defense (DOD) base budget for FY26 at least 3-5% above inflation compared to the FY25 enacted level, write Bowman and Brobst. It must avoid a continuing resolution at all costs.
- Where to invest: President Trump issued an executive order early in his term to create a homeland missile defense system, dubbed “Golden Dome,” and laid out plans to accelerate the development of hypersonic and ballistic tracking sensors and space-based interceptors. The Pentagon also must prioritize cybersecurity investments for the critical air, rail, and maritime infrastructure that underpins U.S. military mobility and has fallen
victim to Chinese cyberattacks, urge FDD’s Annie Fixler and RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery.
President Donald Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer participate in a joint press conference, Thursday, February 27, 2025, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
2. President Trump unveiled a framework trade deal with the United Kingdom on Thursday. It is the first agreement reached between the U.S. and a country since Trump’s blanket tariffs on trading
partners in early April.
- Lowering trade barriers: While the universal 10% tariff will remain, British steel and aluminum will be exempted from U.S. 25% import tariffs, while levies on imported British cars will fall from 25% to 10% for the first 100,000 vehicles. In return, the UK will eliminate tariffs on the first 13,000 tons of U.S. beef exports and cut
levies on American ethanol. A deal was also reportedly reached that would see Boeing sell 30 airplanes to British Airways. The framework deal has not yet been finalized.
- The nitty-gritty: The deal extends beyond reducing bilateral trade barriers. According to the White House, U.S. aerospace firms will receive “preferential access” to British aerospace components, while U.S. exports to the UK will undergo “streamlined” customs procedures. Finally, the deal “increases U.S. firms’ competitiveness” in the UK procurement market and commits London and Washington to enhance bilateral industrial and agricultural market access.
- A limited first deal: Unlike other partners Trump levied tariffs on, the U.S. runs a trade surplus with the UK, which accounted for 3% of U.S. trade volume in 2024. U.S. industry representatives cautioned that, with the 10% tariff in place on most goods, duties are still much higher and the deal ignored other “discriminatory” UK policies. Meanwhile, the Department of Commerce estimates the deal will increase bilateral trade opportunities by $5 billion. This framework could set a precedent for other ongoing trade negotiations. Last month, Trump said he had received 18 written trade offers that U.S. trade officials were negotiating.
3. The Trump administration’s antisemitism task force has launched probes into multiple universities amid an uptick in antisemitic campus violence. At the same time, the Department of Education (DOE) has increased scrutiny on malign foreign funding in U.S. education.
- U Washington hit hard: The task force initiated a review at the University of Washington following violent protests on campus Monday. Protesters occupied a building, destroyed property (likely causing over $1 million in damages), and threatened law enforcement.
The organizing group, SUPER UW, celebrated Hamas’s “heroic” 10/7 massacre and mass kidnapping. The university condemned the protests as antisemitic and announced 21 students had been suspended and barred from campus. The task force, however, called on the university to “do more to deter future violence.”
- Shalom, Columbia (again): The State Department began reviewing the visa statuses of protesters who occupied a library at Columbia University on Wednesday. Columbia’s President denounced the occupation as “utterly unacceptable.” Secretary of Education Linda McMahon commended this, but noted the task force would be watching how the university punishes those arrested. In March, the Trump administration froze $400 million in research grants to Columbia, leading the university to release a tranche of disciplinary actions against rioters it had originally let off the hook.
- Another one: On Monday, DOE announced Harvard would receive no new federal grants until it addresses a series of White House demands at the same time President Trump is reviewing Harvard’s tax-exempt status. Among the demands are merit-based hiring and admissions free from demographic preferences; viewpoint diversity in admissions and hiring; an audit of departments that fuel antisemitic harassment; and disciplining students who occupied
university buildings and assaulted an Israeli student.
- Foreign funding under the microscope: Last month, DOE launched an investigation of UC Berkeley for failing to disclose hundreds of millions in foreign funding from China. Berkeley reportedly received $220 million to build a joint institute in Shenzhen but never disclosed the payment. The Department is also reviewing whether sensitive U.S. technologies were shared with CCP-linked entities as part of the institute. The probe follows an executive
order issued in April to enhance higher education compliance with foreign gift disclosure requirements, FDD’s Brandy Shufutinsky unpacks.
Saturday, May 10 – Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jameison Greer will meet with a Chinese economic official in Switzerland. The meeting will mark the first direct trade talks between the U.S. and China since President Trump imposed multiple rounds of tariffs on Chinese exports. Monday, May 12 – The SENATE ARMED SERVICES Subcommittee on Strategic Forces holds a closed hearing to examine U.S. space superiority. In March, U.S. Space Command chief Stephen Whiting testified before the subcommittee that U.S. space superiority was a key Pentagon priority and urged Congress to provide consistent funding so Space Command can deliver capabilities to deter and counter adversary action. Tuesday, May 13 – The SENATE ARMED SERVICES Subcommittee on Strategic Forces holds an open hearing to examine the DOD’s missile defense activities. The subcommittee will receive testimony from senior U.S. defense officials, including Lieutenant General Heath A. Collins, the director of the Missile Defense Agency. - A long-term imperative: Prioritizing homeland missile defense “will be expensive, difficult, and time-consuming, but it is necessary to better protect our
citizens at home and to deter adversary aggression abroad,” caution FDD’s Bradley Bowman and RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery. Congress must provide consistent funding to U.S. missile defense to make good on the Trump administration’s “Golden Dome” system. For it to be an effective missile deterrent, the Pentagon must prioritize a global sensing network to counter cruise missiles as well as space-based interceptors to shoot down incoming missiles, Bowman and Montgomery
explain.
The SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE holds a nominations hearing to consider Richard Anderson for Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Manpower and Reserve Affairs, Adam Telle for Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works, and Matthew Napoli to be Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration. The SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE holds an open hearing, East Africa & The Horn: At a Turning Point or Breaking Point? The committee will receive testimony on U.S. diplomatic priorities and security concerns in East Africa. Wednesday, May 14 – President Trump will attend a summit of Gulf state leaders in Saudi Arabia, including officials from the UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait. The HOUSE
FOREIGN RELATIONS East Asia and Pacific Subcommittee holds an open hearing, National Economic Security, Advancing US Interests Abroad, with private experts, including FDD’s Elaine Dezenski. - On Background – In October, Dezenski and then FDD Adjunct Fellow David Rader
recommended Congress establish a Commission on Economic Statecraft and Security to address the U.S.’s disjointed economic warfare toolkit. Modeled after other bipartisan commissions that issue policy guidance to Congress on national security priorities, the Commission would identify ways to empower government agencies to play a more meaningful role in U.S.-China economic competition, including by enhancing outbound investment screening.
The HOUSE ARMED SERVICES Subcommittee on Strategic Forces holds an open hearing, National Security Space Programs. The subcommittee will examine U.S. space priorities and programs and how they serve American national security interests. The HOUSE HOMELAND SECURITY COMMITTEE holds an open hearing, A New Era of Homeland Security: A Review of the Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the Department of Homeland Security. The committee will hear from Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem on the Department’s funding priorities for the upcoming fiscal year. Thursday, May 15 – The HOUSE SELECT COMMITTEE ON THE CCP holds an open hearing, Deterrence Amid Rising Tensions: Preventing CCP Aggression on Taiwan. The committee will receive testimony from FDD’s RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery and other former government officials on strategies to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan. - Arming Taiwan: On April 9, President Trump issued an executive order to reform the U.S. foreign military sales (FMS) process to expedite deliveries of U.S. defense articles to foreign partners such as Taiwan. Bowman and FDD’s Ryan Brobst lauded the order and
noted that “delivering key weapons to Taiwan now could delay or deter altogether an invasion.” The pair urged the administration to take additional steps, including time-bound State Department reviews on potential sales. Enshrining such reforms in law, however, would be ideal.
The HOUSE APPROPRIATIONS Subcommittee on Homeland Security holds an open hearing to examine the Transportation Safety Administration. The subcommittee will hear from Acting TSA Administrator Ha Nguyen McNeill on priorities and budget requests for FY26. - Securing Aviation Cyberspace: Ensuring flight safety by protecting this critical subsector from cyberattacks is vital to safeguarding the nation’s economic vitality and national security. Yet, the sector’s security is challenged by fragmented oversight, insufficient investment in cybersecurity and modernization, and an under-resourced workforce. FDD’s Jiwon Ma provides recommendations to lawmakers on how the TSA can bolster U.S. aviation cybersecurity, including cybersecurity risk assessments at critical airports and
having the FAA and TSA harmonize cybersecurity regulations.
The HOUSE ARMED SERVICES Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations holds an open hearing, Defense Intelligence Enterprise Posture. The subcommittee will receive testimony from senior U.S. intelligence officials, including Lieutenant General Jeffrey A. Kruse, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, on the status of the U.S.’s defense intelligence enterprise.
🔍 WHAT'S MOVING ON THE HILL
✔ Endorsed Bill Passes House: Solidify Iran Sanctions Act (H.R. 1800) – The House passed this bipartisan bill on Tuesday by a unanimous voice vote. Led by Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA), this bill eliminates a sunset provision in the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996, ensuring sanctions on Iran’s energy sector and illicit ballistic missile,
nuclear, and chemical weapon development programs remain in place until Iran ceases its malign activities. (Press Release) ✔ Endorsed Bill Passes House: The DHS Restrictions on Confucius Institutes and Chinese Entities of Concern Act (H.R. 881) – The House overwhelmingly passed this bill on Wednesday by a vote of 266-153. Led by Rep. August Pfluger (R-TX), this bill prohibits the Department of Homeland Security from providing funds to any higher education institution that has relationships with Confucius Institutes, which are Chinese government-funded cultural centers. The legislation gained support since last Congress, when an identical version passed 249-161. (Press Release) ✔ Endorsed: Affirming the acceptable
outcome of any nuclear deal between the United States and Iran (S.Res. 212) – Led by Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Tom Cotton (R-AR), and Katie Britt (R-AL), this resolution outlines the acceptable outcome of ongoing nuclear talks with Iran: the complete dismantlement of the regime's nuclear program. FDD Action urges Senators to cosponsor this resolution. (Press Release) ✔
Endorsed: Gottheimer-Bacon Letter to the White House – Led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Don Bacon (R-NE), a bipartisan group sent a letter to the President and Secretary Rubio demanding clarity on the U.S.-Houthi ceasefire announced on May 6 and requesting a briefing to Congress no later than May 19. It urges the administration to closely engage with Israeli officials to ensure all diplomatic arrangements fully protect Israel’s security interests and do not embolden Iranian proxies. (Press Release)
Craft a comprehensive strategy to contain and degrade the Houthis. The Iran-backed group has accumulated battlefield experience and stockpiles of weaponry that few nation-states possess, enabling it to disrupt international maritime traffic in the Red Sea and threaten the U.S. and our partners.
Ari Heistein outlines a comprehensive long-term plan to degrade the Houthis that includes holding Iran accountable and goes beyond the defensive action and limited strikes that the U.S. and partners have conducted. - Undermine Revenue Streams – Diversion of humanitarian aid: Tens of billions of dollars of assistance have flowed into Yemen over the past decade of conflict. UN agencies and international nongovernmental organizations have done little to prevent the Houthis from controlling and
diverting massive amounts of aid. Major donors, especially the United States, should demand greater transparency and hold accountable those who refuse to disclose and stop the diversion.
- Undermine Revenue Streams – Houthi-run financial institutions: Major banks under Houthi control are used to finance terrorism and other destabilizing activities in Yemen and throughout the Middle East. They should be sanctioned by Washington and its partners and disconnected from the SWIFT global financial messaging system.
- Counter Information Dominance – Promote alternatives to Houthi-controlled internet service providers: Control of TeleYemen and YemenNet provides the regime with hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenue and enables it to limit and monitor how Yemenis use the internet.
- Isolate from Foreign Support – Disrupt International Houthi Networks: Oman allows the Houthis to operate a headquarters in the country. Businesses, banks, and smuggling networks operate in Oman with impunity. Turkish entities serve as fronts for illicit procurement and money laundering.
📣 WINNING MESSAGES
An American Pope: Robert Francis Prevost was elected the new Pope on the second day of the Papal Conclave. The first American Pope ever, Pope Leo XIV, hails from Chicago and attended Villanova University. U.S. officials – and many Chicagoans – celebrated the news. President Trump called Prevost’s election a “Great Honor for our Country.” As Pope Leo is
reportedly a Chicago White Sox fan, Chicago’s south side baseball team also congratulated the new pontiff. After last year's historic losing season, maybe the Sox could use some divine intercession this year.
Chicago restaurants also had fun. Hot dog chain Portillos asked, “How quickly can we ship Italian Beef to Vatican City?” and reposted their restaurant sign above the Sistine Chapel. On Friday, Portillos introduced “The Leo,” a special Pope-themed version of
their classic Italian beef sandwich. Chicago staple Lou Malnati’s posted an image of Pope Leo XIV serving the cardinals a deep-dish pizza with the caption, “there’s gonna be a lot of changes around here” – you betcha! Needless to say, Chicago is celebrating its newest export in true Chicago fashion. Meanwhile, Villanova alums are enjoying the big news by dunking on Notre Dame. Others insist the new Popemobile has to be a Ford pickup. Has America won history? One thing is for sure, the Founding Fathers would have never guessed that 250 years after they signed the Declaration of Independence, the Pope would be American.
👋 Thanks for sticking with us! Until next week. P.S. If you liked this and don’t want to wait another week for more, check out FDD Action’s new X account for endorsement updates and timely analysis on breaking national security news.
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