Social media in election campaigns: do ‘likes’ equal votes?
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At a fraction of the cost of traditional advertising, it’s easy to see the appeal of social media during an election campaign, with politicians eager to harness the votes of the nearly 10 million daily active Facebook users in Australia. To put it in perspective, both Denis Napthine and Daniel Andrews have more Facebook ‘likes’ than their Party has followers nationwide. But does posting selfies, memes and listicles really change users’ minds and, more importantly, their votes?
Social media might not necessarily change votes on its own, but can highlight the pressing issues for the electorate so candidates can target their promises, and it can help parties organise, fundraise and mobilise for more effective grassroots campaigning.
Rather than trying to create it from scratch, candidates should cultivate social media influence by engaging existing issues-based influencers with ready-made active follower bases.
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What the bookies think
Having peaked at 6.50 (5.50 to one) last weekend, the odds on a Coalition win in the State Election shortened a little this week coming in to 4.50.
Yet, in seat by seat betting the Coalition seems to be further from victory than ever. One important building block for a Labor success on Saturday week is retaining all its own seats.
On the other side of the pendulum, the Galaxy Poll which showed the Liberals on 52% in Bentleigh saw the odds of a Liberal win there shorten. You can still back the Liberals at 2.80, however, so clearly the majority of punters didn't find the poll convincing.
And for anyone bored with just looking at the odds on the overall winner or seat-by-seat, there are now a few exotic bets being offered. Our favourite here at The Agenda Group is the one where punters can pick one of five time periods when the first toilet will be flushed at Southland station.
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So where will the Donkey vote in 2014?
Following on from our explanation of the potential value of the donkey vote in week one of the election, the Victorian Electoral Commission drew the order of ballot in each electorate last Friday.
Our analysis shows the notional winners and losers from the draw. In overall terms, the luck of the draw appears to have broken evenly for both parties.
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Making sense of the Upper House
In 2010 the Coalition sprang a major surprise by not just winning in the Legislative Assembly but also by gaining control of the Legislative Council.
Whether the Coalition or Labor form government after the election, it is unlikely that either will gain a majority in the Council.
And anyone wishing to try out some scenarios can now do so with Antony Green’s Legislative Council Calculator here. The worrying thing is that there are plenty of scenarios where Labor plus Greens equal 20 and the Coalition plus a couple of right-wing minor party candidates equal 20.
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