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Kent

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E: enquiries@directfp.co.uk

 

 

 

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Property Market Review
MARCH 2016

Our monthly property market review is intended to provide background to recent developments in property markets as well as to give an indication of how some key issues could impact in the future.

It is not intended that individual investment decisions should be taken based on this information; we are always ready to discuss your individual requirements. We hope you will find this review to be of interest.


House Prices Headline statistics

National (DEC 2015)* 312.0*

Average House Price £191,812

Monthly Change 2.5%

Annual Change 7.1%

*(1995 = 100)

  • Annual price change now at 7.1%
  • From August - November '15 there was an average of 81,656 sales per month
  • London saw the highest price rise of 13.9% annually

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House Prices Price change bY region

Region   Monthly Change (%) Annual Change (%) Average Price (£)
Wales   3.7 6.8 £125,665
London 2.8 13.9 £530,409
South East 2.2 10.7 £266,603
West Midlands 1.7 6.6 £144,185
South West 1.6 6.2 £198,288
East Midlands 1.1 4.4 £138,825
East 0.7 8.9 £217,341
Yorkshire & The Humber 0.6 3.7 £124,949
North West -0.4 2.1 £114,504
North East -1.6 0.2 £97,117
Scotland N/A 1.6 £167,734**
Northern Ireland N/A 7.0 £130,185***

Source: The Land Registry/ Land Resistry - Scotland** / Land Registry - N Ireland ***
Release date: 26/02/2016 Next date release: 30/03/2016 / ** Latest Quarterly figures / *** January 2016

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UK Unemployment Figures

  • There are 22.94 million people working full-time, 302,000 more than a year earlier
  • The employment rate is the highest since comparable records began in 1971
  • Average weekly earnings (including bonuses) increased by 2.1%

Jobless total
1.68m
Unemployment rate
5.1%

Source: Office for National Statistics
Release Date: 16/03/2016


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Mortgage Activity

  • The recovery in mortgage lending is becoming more broadly based
  • Landlords borrowed £3.7bn up 9% by volume
  • First-time buyers borrowed £3.3bn on 21,400 loans

Source: Council of Mortgage lenders
Release date:
17/03/2016


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UK Inflation Figures

  • Unchanged from January 2016
  • Largest downward contribution came from transport sector
  • Rising food prices offset this

Source: Office for National Statistics
Release date: 22/03/2016


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UK GOVERNMENT Debt NOW


= £1542.6bn*


*As at December 2015

UK Debt as % of GDP

UK Balance of Trade (Deficit)


Source: www.tradingeconomics.com
Release date: 11/03/2016


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COMMERCIAL PROPERTY UPDATE

New tiered system of stamp duty rates for commercial property

In the Budget on 16 March, George Osborne announced a new tiered rate system for stamp duty on commercial property purchases, effective 17 March 2016. Different rates will now apply to the portion of the property price falling into each band: 0% up to £150,000, 2% between £150,001 and £250,000 and 5% above £250,000.

Consequently, those investing in larger commercial property in the UK will experience a rise in rates; buyers of smaller properties will benefit from a reduction. Those buying commercial property up to £1.05 million in value are expected to pay less stamp duty. The Treasury estimate that only 9% of commercial property purchasers will end up paying more.

It has been reported that Melanie Leech, the Chief Executive of the British Property Federation, commented on the reform: "Commercial property investment can often act as the catalyst for regional growth and as the economy has recovered investment has been spreading out from London to the UK's regions, but will now undoubtedly slow. The real set back is that development in places like the Northern Powerhouse and Midlands' Engine will now be held back as a result of this out of the blue raid on commercial property transactions".

Chief executive of SPF Private Clients, Mike Harris reportedly stated: "The tweaks made to stamp duty on commercial property make it a fairer system and even the higher top rate is unlikely to deter investors. It is more likely to be absorbed into the cost of the asset".

Retail continues to lag other commercial property sectors

The IPD (Investment Property Databank) UK Monthly Property Index returned 0.6% to 29 February 2016. Total returns from the three main areas of retail, office and industrial commercial property returned 0.5%, 0.7% and 0.7% respectively over the one month period. Total return over a rolling three month period to the end of February saw both the office and industrial sectors returning 2.8%, retail continued to lag with a return of 1.8%, no doubt inhibited by the rise in popularity of online shopping.

Income growth drives returns

Andrew Friend, Fund Director of the Henderson UK Property OEIC, recently spoke about the outlook for commercial property, commenting that the high capital returns previously experienced will not be sustained and that there is a clear transition toward income led returns. From a sector perspective he remains underweight high street retail, based on structural change in the sector, instead preferring retail warehousing as an alternative. He highlighted positive rental growth prospects in areas of new transport links and infrastructure expenditure such as Crossrail and HS2.

Following a peak in the UK office market in 2015, with stellar activity reported regionally (Manchester, Edinburgh, Birmingham and Belfast) as well as in Central London, Charlie Lake, Capital Markets Director for Lambert Smith Hampton recently revealed: "As forecast, 2015 witnessed investor confidence returning to the regions, with a wide range of overseas investors and institutions attracted by the higher returns away from Central London. With income growth likely to be a key driver for investment in 2016, it is encouraging to see our agents forecast further prime headline rental growth in 26 of the regional markets."


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