Research Update

 

Good afternoon,

Linked below is the State Shipments to Retailers for September 2019.

Here are a few key findings:

  • We estimate consumer retail spending on beer increased by an average of 2.8% during September 2019.
  • Trade-up (increased spending on a smaller volume of beer) continues to drive softness in overall beer performance, but a confluence of mitigating factors led to beer volume growth during September. As a result, total beer shipment volume was up 1.4% in raw terms.
  • During September, many distributors had to rebuild inventories, which had been drawn down during August, resulting in stronger than expected shipment trends.
  • September benefited from weather that was warmer and drier than is typical for the month. In particular, the Southeastern states, which were relatively warm and dry during September, showed relatively strong performance. The upper Midwest, which was generally cooler and rainier, performed more softly.
  • September’s performance also benefited from one additional selling day compared to September 2018. September’s shipment trend was down 3.4%, after adjusting for the change.
  • Shipment trends in Oklahoma and Utah were especially soft due to changes in those states’ retail beer sales restrictions. Beginning last fall, retailers in Oklahoma such as grocery and convenience stores, which had previously only been allowed to sell 3.2 beer, may now sell full strength beer. Similarly, grocery and convenience stores in Utah will begin selling beer with up to four percent ABW or 6.25% ABV starting in November. Distributors and retailers in Utah are running inventories down in preparation for the change.

If you have any questions, please contact me at muhrich@beerinstitute.org.

Cheers,

Michael Uhrich
Chief Economist

 

 

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