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Editor's note
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To pilfer Winston Churchill’s quip about Stalin’s Russia, Brexit has long looked like “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”. So as politicians blunder and bluster, polls miss the mark and every proposed deal makes a beeline for the waste paper basket, how on Earth are any of us supposed to get a handle on what’s going on – and what the most likely outcome will be?
Cue: the wisdom of crowds. Popularised by James Surowiecki, the idea is that when a crowd comes up with an answer it is likely to be more accurate than that of the smartest person in that group. But can it be applied effectively to the Brexit muddle? Aleks Berditchevskaia and Kathy Peach decided to find out – and got some remarkably promising results.
Either way, Britain’s Brexit reins will soon be in the hands of either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt. And if you want to get to the bottom of their respective characters, who better to turn to than 16th-century political guru, Niccolò Machiavelli. According to his leadership model, Boris is likely the lion to Hunt’s fox. Find out which political animal would best suit the needs of 21st-century Britain.
And if you’re looking to quit smoking, would a financial incentive help? The evidence suggests so.
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Matt Warren
Deputy Editor
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Top stories
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Shutterstock
Aleks Berditchevskaia, Nesta; Kathy Peach, Nesta
They've been right so far – and the crowd is now forecasting another Article 50 extension.
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Shutterstock
Christopher Fear, University of Hull
One is a lion and the other a fox, but a successful leader must be both.
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Bokeh Blur Background/Shutterstock
Jamie Hartmann-Boyce, University of Oxford; Caitlin Notley, University of East Anglia
Paying people to quit smoking seems unfair, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't do it.
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Politics + Society
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Ernestine Gheyoh Ndzi, University of Hertfordshire
Excluding high earning dads from paid parental leave is not the answer.
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Haian Dukhan, University of Leicester
How Syria's tribes are being used by those both for and against the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
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Felia Allum, University of Bath
Suggestions that the Camorra has been usurped are exaggerated.
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Natasha Lindstaedt, University of Essex
President Donald Trump has appealed to his base by attacking four Democratic Congresswomen of colour.
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Alexandra Hennessy, University of Essex
In trying to win over hostile MEPs, the new president of the Commission made some bold promises.
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Health + Medicine
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Matthew Smith, University of Strathclyde
In identifying a failing education system as it trailed the Russians, America discovered many low-achieving youngsters had ADHD.
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Amy Brown, Swansea University
Breastfeeding mothers are turning to online groups due to dwindling real-life support — but these volunteer-led platforms don't always have the best advice.
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Science + Technology
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Vasileios Giotsas, Lancaster University
The recent Cloudflare outage was one of up to 14,000 the internet experiences every year thanks to its surprisingly fragile design.
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Jim Wild, Lancaster University
In its Cold War race to the moon, the US played Russian roulette with solar storms.
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Martin Archer, Queen Mary University of London; Miriam Frankel, The Conversation
Episode 3 of the To the moon and beyond podcast takes a look at who some of the key players are in the 21st century space race and what they are competing for.
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Arts + Culture
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Richard C. Delerins, ESSEC
The millennials have boosted rosé consumption: in the United States alone, 65% of them declare themselves "rosé drinkers". How can this overall success be explained?
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David Finkelstein, Heriot-Watt University
Migration helped forge the very social, cultural and economic infrastructures that Britain now seeks to wall off from the rest of the world.
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Environment + Energy
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Gemma Sou, University of Manchester
Barbuda's recovery is deliberately slow as neighbouring Antigua wants to develop the island's tourism.
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Featured events
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Meadow Suite, Park House, University of Reading Whiteknights Campus,, Reading, Reading, RG6 6UA, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland — University of Reading
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