A look at the workforce of 2020

What will your job look like in the future?

Markedly different, according to the World Economy Forum’s recent report, The Future of Jobs and Skills, which claims the world is entering a fourth industrial revolution spurred by demographic changes and technological advances in genetics, smart systems and nanotechnology.

The report asked hundreds of executives, across nine different industries in 15 major global economies, how they believe jobs will change by 2020. Results from the analysis show rapid changes in the employment landscape that could lead to a loss of over 5 million jobs to automation, the majority of which will be administrative and office jobs. A gain of 2 million jobs is projected for the Computer, Mathematics, Architecture and Engineering fields – as well as a high demand for data analysts and specialized sales representatives.

In fact, new technology is changing the way we work so fast that the report predicts that 65 per cent of today’s primary school children will end up working in jobs that don’t even exist yet.

So what can businesses and governments do now to make sure they retain a skilled workforce for the future?

The report highlights that businesses need to start investing in re-skilling current employees (old and new) and really focus on talent diversity. Above all, the report emphasizes that governments and businesses need to work together to restructure the current education system to better reflect the economic needs of the 21st century.

Canadian job quality ranks as “average”

Having a good quality job has a big impact on people’s well-being. Being stuck in a low quality job early on can negatively affect a person’s long-term prospects for earnings and working conditions. On average, people spend 37 hours a week at work, making it important to understand and track how job quality impacts both economies and workers throughout different countries.

To help answer this question, the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) has developed the OECD Job Quality Database to measure and assess the quality of jobs around the world by looking at individual work experiences. The measures focus on three areas:

• Earnings quality – the extent to which workers’ earnings contribute to their well-being
• Labour market security – the aspects of economic security related to the probability of job loss, the expected duration of unemployment, and the measure of public unemployment insurance
• Quality of the working environment – the non-economic aspects of job quality, including the type of work, working arrangements, and workplace relationships

Canada ranks as an average performer across these three categories, ranking 13th of 33 for both earning quality and labour market security, and tied 7th for quality of the working environment. The top performing countries across all categories are Australia, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway, and Switzerland. As economic developers work to create employment opportunities, reports like this provide some interesting insights into measuring the quality as well as the quantity of jobs available.

Survey Invitation

Have you taken the survey on the establishment of a pan-Canadian, grassroots forum? A Canadian Workforce Development Forum would build workforce development capacity and effectiveness at the local, regional, provincial and national levels. Share your thoughts and inform the Forum!

Event Spotlight

Want to know more about how social media can support economic development and other initiatives in your community? The University of Waterloo's economic development program is holding a Social Media for Economic Developers seminar in Stratford, Ontario, (and online) from May 26th-27th.

Company Corner

The Town of Greater Napanee

The Town of Greater Napanee recently received an award for the Commercial Investment Strategy that was completed by MDB Insight and RCI Consulting. 

The project’s main benefit is that the Town’s promoters can now provide investors with an objective methodology that clearly defines the expected return on investment from redevelopment of commercial sites in Downtown Napanee. In addition, Town officials now have comprehensive fiscal and economic impact information that will help them to make an informed decision on the degree of financial incentives that can be offered to developers.

The wonderful evolution of Downtown Napanee has been well chronicled. The redevelopment of the six large and corner properties that were part of the study will be a catalyst for additional investment.

The project was recognized by the Economic Developers Council of Ontario as one of the best “Strategic Plans and Initiatives” across Ontario last year. 

Is income inequality making us unhappy?

For almost half a century, the Easterlin Paradox (that economic growth makes nations happier, but only up to a certain income) has been an important concept in happiness economics. So too, is the concept that non-economic factors have a direct effect on the happiness of nations. While the United States (US) has one of the highest GDPs per capita, for example, several countries appear to be happier. Other advanced economies like the United Kingdom and Sweden have continued to become happier as they grow richer, but the US bottoms out on happiness.

A new paper suggests that the discrepancy can be explained by the level of income inequality. Examining data for 34 nations, the study found that inequality is a strong "moderating factor" in whether nations become happier during economic growth. The researchers found that when economic growth is concentrated in a small segment of the population, the Easterlin Paradox is more likely to emerge. As a result, economic growth is not associated with an increase in life satisfaction.

The researchers looked at the World Database of Happiness, (a collection of self-reported surveys of happiness) and a sample from 18 Latin American countries with less developed economies. The two main findings from this data were that people with the lowest incomes do not benefit when economic growth surges, and that income inequality makes people more envious, undermining their happiness. The paper doesn't discount the general idea that GDP is a measure of national welfare, but does raise some interesting points for those trying to build happier communities.

Changing binary views of suburbia

Suburbs have often been studied in isolation from their urban neighbours. A new book titled Suburban Urbanites: Suburbs and the Life of the High Street, however, questions conventional views of suburbs by challenging our binary understanding of urban vs. suburban spaces.

Suburban Urbanites suggests that suburbs are extensions of cities. The authors and  editor, Laura Vaughan, build a case that the traditional understanding of suburban development - the concentration of research on social engagement and built form - ignores the differences of suburban environments, as well as the ever-changing nature of modern life (e.g. travel between urban and suburban spaces). While the traditional belief is that suburban developments represent an inefficient use of land and resources, the book argues that suburban areas are shaped by different variables and adapt to changing social economic conditions.

Other supporters of this idea can be found in a recent Newmark Grubb Knight Frank report, Suburban Office Obsolescence: Quantifying Challenges and Opportunities, which notes that suburban office parks are transforming to better fit the needs of clients. While the office park concept has decreased in popularity, there are areas where they continue to thrive. The authors highlight Edina, Minnesota, as a model to follow, pointing to the office park’s connection to bicycle infrastructure, big-box retail, and green space.

Other suburban office parks have established farmers markets, hotels, or housing. Developers are using office parks to establish a new vision for the suburbs. As traditional suburban office parks and suburban main streets transform into an urban-like environment, it becomes harder to distinguish between the two. The binary view becomes blurred, and a new understanding of ‘suburbia’ and vision of community development emerges.

Resource Review

Pollinating local economies

From the first paragraph (which kicks off with a pretty scathing look at the incentives used to attract the production of House of Cards to Maryland), Michael H. Shuman’s punchy new book The Local Economy Solution challenges ideas about the form and function of economic development in the United States.

Shuman, who serves as an adjunct instructor at Simon Fraser University in the community economic development program, argues quite passionately against “attract-and-retain” economic development programs focused on drawing businesses to communities with hefty incentives. Instead, he proposes that economic development should be focused on identifying and nurturing cost-effective (ideally self-financing) pollinator enterprises that support strong local entrepreneurial ecosystems. For those in the US or elsewhere who are engaged in business retention and expansion or economic gardening, these ideas are likely familiar.

These pollinator enterprises fall into five categories: planning, people, partnerships, purchasing, and purse. By focusing on local businesses, Shuman maintains that economic developers will see greater benefits for their communities (e.g. better jobs and higher employment rates) based on the significant role small and medium enterprises have in the economy and as employers. Each of these pollinator types is explored in detail with multiple examples and case studies from around the world.

In some cases, Shuman’s discussions of the state of American economic development can be oversimplified or too broadly generalized, but his energy and obvious passion for growing local economies will leave readers inspired. For those working in the American context, Shuman’s argument offers a challenging perspective on economic development that may spur some new ideas that will benefit their communities. American, Canadian, and international readers alike will find a wealth of examples, resources, and case studies that make The Local Economy Solution a worthwhile read.