Welcome to 2019-20. It doesn't look good.

Happy new financial year!

What I’d expected when I set out to compile this year’s mid-year economic survey was a wide range of opinions. After all, the outlook is as uncertain as it has been in a decade – the iron ore price is high and the government’s finances look good yet economic growth has stalled and consumers are suddenly reluctant to spend more. On the face of it, we’re at a turning point, about which there ought to be disagreement.

Yet what I found when I put together 460 forecasts from 20 leading economics from all sorts of backgrounds, was a broad uniformity of views. Economic growth will be weak in the year ahead – as weak as any since the global financial crisis. Spending per head will barely climb, and wage growth and unemployment will stall. Oh, and there’s an increased chance of a recession.

Put aside for a moment that it’s not what we were told during the election, it’s also not the kind of uniform view we would expect from 20 disparate yet respected economists. Among the panel are former Treasury, IMF, OECD and Reserve Bank officials, leading economic modelers and a former member of the Reserve Bank board. One third are women. They’ve a wide range of opinions about policy, but not too wide a range of opinions about what we’re in for.

Buckle in, and enjoy the great cartoon by graphics wiz Wes Mountain, who also prepared the interactive tables and graphs.

 

Peter Martin

Section Editor, Business and Economy

Top story

As uncertain as 2019-20 is, The Conversation’s team of 20 leading economists are in broad agreement that the outlook isn’t good. Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will also have to deal with the unexpected. Wes Mountain/The Conversation

Buckle up. 2019-20 survey finds the economy weak and heading down, and that’s ahead of surprises

Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

The Conversation's distinguished panel predicts unusually weak growth, dismal spending, no improvement in either unemployment or wage growth, and an increased chance of recession.

Yuri Gripas/EPA

Democrats should avoid pledges to overturn the Trump revolution – there hasn’t been one

Jon Herbert, Keele University; Andrew Wroe, University of Kent; Trevor McCrisken, University of Warwick

The president's policy achievements are distinctly ordinary, for a Republican, and his limited record may offer a good line of attack for opponents.

Bullying among siblings isn’t the same as teasing and occasional sibling spats. from shutterstock.com

Nearly 30% of kids experience sibling bullying – as either bully or victim

Rachael Sharman, University of the Sunshine Coast

Bullying among siblings is more likely to occur when parental resources such as time, money, attention and affection are stretched too thin between siblings.

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