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Welcome to 2019-20. It doesn't look good.
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Happy new financial year!
What I’d expected when I set out to compile this year’s mid-year economic survey was a wide range of opinions. After all, the outlook is as uncertain as it has been in a decade – the iron ore price is high and the government’s finances look good yet economic growth has stalled and consumers are suddenly reluctant to spend more. On the face of it, we’re at a turning point, about which there ought to be disagreement.
Yet what I found when I put together 460 forecasts from 20 leading economics from all sorts of backgrounds, was a broad uniformity of views. Economic growth will be weak in the year ahead – as weak as any since the global financial crisis. Spending per head will barely climb, and wage growth and unemployment will stall. Oh, and there’s an increased chance of a recession.
Put aside for a moment that it’s not what we were told during the election, it’s also not the kind of uniform view we would expect from 20 disparate yet respected economists. Among the panel are former Treasury, IMF, OECD and Reserve Bank officials, leading economic modelers and a former member of the Reserve Bank board. One third are women. They’ve a wide range of opinions about policy, but not too wide a range of opinions about what we’re in for.
Buckle in, and enjoy the great cartoon by graphics wiz Wes Mountain, who also prepared the interactive tables and graphs.
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Peter Martin
Section Editor, Business and Economy
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Top story
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As uncertain as 2019-20 is, The Conversation’s team of 20 leading economists are in broad agreement that the outlook isn’t good. Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will also have to deal with the unexpected.
Wes Mountain/The Conversation
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
The Conversation's distinguished panel predicts unusually weak growth, dismal spending, no improvement in either unemployment or wage growth, and an increased chance of recession.
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Yuri Gripas/EPA
Jon Herbert, Keele University; Andrew Wroe, University of Kent; Trevor McCrisken, University of Warwick
The president's policy achievements are distinctly ordinary, for a Republican, and his limited record may offer a good line of attack for opponents.
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Bullying among siblings isn’t the same as teasing and occasional sibling spats.
from shutterstock.com
Rachael Sharman, University of the Sunshine Coast
Bullying among siblings is more likely to occur when parental resources such as time, money, attention and affection are stretched too thin between siblings.
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Cities
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Katherine Wilson, Swinburne University of Technology
In a time of populist momentum to 'build a wall', your front fence says more than you think.
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Davina Jackson, University of Kent
Sydney Schools weren't actually schools, but houses that embraced the native Australian landscape, and reacted to international modernism.
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Health + Medicine
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Mike Armour, Western Sydney University; Christina Curry, Western Sydney University; Freya MacMillan, Western Sydney University
Period pain is common, and the evidence shows it can hinder a woman's performance at school, university and work. To tackle this problem, we need to start talking about it.
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Maree Hackett, UNSW; Geoffrey Spurling, The University of Queensland
A culturally specific screening tool for depression has been successfully tested among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians. This is why it's so important we start rolling it out.
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Politics + Society
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Chris Salisbury, The University of Queensland
With its details of widespread corruption, the Fitzgerald report remains a cataclysmic event in Queensland politics, and still resonates today.
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Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra
Another hectic week in politics, with a Lowy poll showing Australians' souring view of China, the G20 summit prepartions amid trade war rtensions, adn the ongoing debate over Israel Folau's sacking.Another hectic week in politics, with a Lowy poll showing Australians' souring view of China
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Science + Technology
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Gail Iles, RMIT University
On Earth the flame from a struck match looks like an inverted teardrop shape and is orange. In microgravity, that same flame is spherical and blue. Heat transfer is different with minimal gravity.
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Fiona R Martin, University of Sydney
Australia's latest defamation ruling has made Facebook publishing a minefield, but there are strategies to ensure better social media outcomes for everyone.
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Environment + Energy
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Elisabeth Slooten, University of Otago; Steve Dawson, University of Otago
The endangered Hector's dolphins are found only in coastal seas in New Zealand, but conservation experts describe New Zealand's proposed protection plan for the marine mammals as misleading.
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Gregory Moore, University of Melbourne
White cedar grows across Asia and Australia, as a hardy and resilient deciduous.
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Featured jobs
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RMIT University — Melbourne, Victoria
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University of Melbourne — Parkville, Victoria
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Griffith University — Logan Central, Queensland
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La Trobe University — Bundoora, Victoria
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Featured events
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Building #20, St Lucia Campus, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, 4072, Australia — The University of Queensland
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G06 Theatre, Ground Floor, Elisabeth Murdoch Building, Spencer Road, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, 3052, Australia — University of Melbourne
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Public Lecture Theatre (PLT) Old Arts Building, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia — University of Melbourne
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Level 12, Tower 2, 727 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria, 3000, Australia — Deakin University
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