Briefing Notes
Variants
Variants of concern are a big area of focus for us. In the U.K. we saw a big spike in cases and a third wave after variants became dominant, and we’re starting to see concerning signs of approaching a similar situation in Canada.
Daily cases in Ontario have flattened out generally, and we might be seeing a small increase thanks to the variants as they pick up steam. This looks similar to the U.K.: variants start to take off and lead to a possible
third wave.
On Jan. 20 when the province did their point prevalence study, they found 4.4 per cent of all COVID-19 cases were variants. Since Feb. 3 the province has been doing routine testing for variants, and as of Feb. 25 we are now approaching 20 per cent.
Niagara
At last week’s briefing we shared that we had six positive screens for variants; we are now up to 33. It takes a couple days to get the screening results once a case is reported, so this could grow. Our percentage of cases that are variants is now up to 15 per cent. Variants are making the difference between no longer having our daily cases
decline, and instead seeing a flattening out. Our reproduction number is currently at 1.02. Without variants it would be at 0.86, and just the variant cases are at 1.54—the variants are spreading quickly as was predicted in past weeks.
Variants of Concern in Ontario
Modelling from the Ontario Science Table shows that Ontario’s weekly growth of variants tracks similar to what was seen in other countries. COVID-19 hospitalization and ICU occupancy decreases have started to level off, and they will likely see an increase if there is a third wave.
The province has said that they are proceeding with the reopening, but while it is a
return to the framework, it is not a return to normal. It will require rigour from everyone to prevent increases in cases.
If reopening is going to work, everyone needs to practise physical distancing, wearing a mask, washing hands, staying at home, and only traveling for essential purposes. The last two in that list are especially important.