No Images? Click here Monday's Mid-Day Update NatGasWeather.com LIVE is now Live! To sign up for free to the enelyst.com Live NatGasWeather.com forum through October 31, click here. To view our latest Live HDD/CDD Weather Model Statistics click here Mid-Day Update: Nov'19 nat gas futures opened a few cents lower after the weekend break, then plummeted at the official session open to down 10 cents. Selling was likely aided by weekend production hitting a new all time high at 95 Bcf/day, a rather sizeable increase. It didn't help the important European model lost a few HDD's over the weekend and again last night. Also at issue, cash prices dropped sharply today. Without the European model on board with the amount and intensity of cold into the US like the GFS, the nat gas markets likely were disappointed/annoyed it had failed to come around to the colder scenario. All major weather models still favor numerous cold shots into the US the next two weeks, but unless the European model were to trend colder, it might not matter what the GFS shows unless production were to ease lower. After losing several HDD's last night, the latest mid-day GFS ensemble data gained most of them back in the latest run on colder trends. As far as details, the southern and eastern US will be quite comfortable the next few days with highs of 60s to 80s for light demand. However, a strong weather system with rain and snow is tracking across the Midwest and east-central US, including deep into Texas and the South. Temperatures with this cool shot will drop into the 20s to 40s for a swing to stronger national demand. This system will push into the Northeast Wednesday, although not quite as cold when it arrives. A reinforcing cold shot will follow into the Midwest and central US Thu-Fri, followed by a pronounced break over the eastern ½ of the US late this weekend into next week, October 27-28 for lighter national demand. However, the strongest cold shot in the series remains on track to advance into the northern and central US October 28-Nov 2 with widespread lows of teens to 30s. The GFS remains quite aggressive spreading this colder air eastward, while the European model keeps cold out of the eastern US most days. These are important differences that need to be resolved. Also of importance, what will the Nov 5-10 period bring? One thing is certain, the colder case has the burden of proving it can last past Nov 5. Since the GFS trended back colder in the latest run, the afternoon European model could be important if it were to trend notably colder as well. If it doesn't, this puts pressure back on GFS to again prove its colder case tonight. Monday-Thursday: The southern and eastern US will be quite comfortable the next few days w/highs of 60s to 80s. However, a strong weather system and associated cold shot is currently advancing into the northern and central US after bringing rain and snow to the West. This system will bring stronger demand for heating as lows drop into the 20s & 30s. This system will slowly reach the East Wednesday but weakening and with less cold air upon arrival. A reinforcing cold shot will follow into the central US Thursday. Overall, relatively strong demand for this time of the year mid-week. October 27-28: A break between cold shots is expected over the East late this weekend, easing national demand. However, the coldest blast in the series is readying upstream and set to advance south and eastward. But how far is where weather model differences continue. The GFS is more aggressive advancing cold air into the East, while the European model stalls it over the central US longer. Oct 29-Nov 2: A strong cold shot is expected into the US Ocf 29-Nov 2, but how far into the eastern US is the question. The GFS thinks a decent amount, while the European model sees only a modest amount. What will the European model this afternoon show? Also of importance, what will the period from Nov 5-10 bring? Weather data isn't sure, but one this is certain, it's up to the cold case to prove it. |