No Images? Click here Monday Afternoon Update Afternoon Update: After the GFS weather data trended further colder mid-day, we knew it would be of interest to see what the afternoon European model would show, expecting it could also trend colder. It did, adding 8 HDD's vs the overnight run and 6 HDD's vs 24-hours ago (table below). It's still not as cold as the GFS model by nearly 13 HDD's, so still a bit of a difference. This is highlighted in the graph below. But the European model did add more demand this round, which the nat gas markets could notice. They could also prefer to wait and see what the overnight data shows. Coming Tuesday...NatGasWeather.com LIVE! Earlier Mid-Day Update: Nov'19 nat gas futures were nearly 9¢ higher this morning to $2.31, likely aided by the weekend weather data adding demand through colder trends. Prices have since eased off session highs but still up 6¢. We thought a few cents higher open was possible since the weekend GFS didn’t back off on a colder pattern for the last week of October and since the European model adding nearly 10 HDD's. The latest mid-day GFS was little changed for the coming 7-day forecast but trended a further colder October 23-30 by still favoring below normal conditions invading much of the US. What's now important is how long this colder pattern will last since it will take much above normal daily HDD's to result in smaller than normal builds, just like much greater than normal CDD's were required this summer just to get a barely smaller than normal build. But it's certainly looking close to cold enough to impress. It's important to note the GFS remains a bit colder than the European model (see graph below), even more so after colder trends in the latest mid-day run. This makes the afternoon European model run important to see if also trends colder to close the gap. As far as details, after a glancing shot of cooler air across the far northern US today, a stronger cold shot will follow into the Rockies and N. Plains Tuesday, then over the Great Lakes and Northeast Wed-Thu. With lows dipping into the 20s to 40s with this system, national demand will be stronger this week than last week. It would be more impressive if not for the southern US being mostly comfortable with highs of upper 60s to 80s, besides locally 90s. Where the pattern remains bearish is this weekend into next week as high pressure strengthens across the eastern ½ of the US with above normal temperatures and highs of 60s to 80s for light demand. Where colder trends have held is for October 24-30 as the latest GFS still favors strong cooling to spread across many regions of the country with lows of teens to 40s for above normal heating demand. The afternoon European model will be of interest as it has the potential to also trend colder, which we will send out a special report for if it does. We were curious if Nov ’19 futures would respect recent support of $2.20-2.22 and hold, which it's done so far to open the week, giving bulls momentum as long as they hold support. Live HDD/CDD Data: The GFS vs European model is the graph immediately above, highlighting the European model isn't as cold as the GFS with TDD's a bit less, especially after Oct 23. The latest GFS trended further colder with this, increasing the distance between the two. Will the afternoon European model trend colder to close the gap? Monday-Friday: High pressure will rule the southern US to open the week with highs of 70s and 80s, locally 90s. A weak weather system will provide a glancing cool shot across the far northern US Monday, followed by a stronger cool shot mid-week that tracks out of the Rockies and Plains with lows of 20s & 30s. This system will also cool portions of Texas and the South mid-week as it tracks eastward. The West will be warm with 70s to 90s over California and the Southwest but cooler over the Northwest. Overall, stronger demand this week compared to last week due to stronger northern US cooling. October 19-23: Most of the data still favors comfortable conditions returning across the eastern half of the US October 19-23 in a rather bearish set up due to warmer than normal conditions with highs of 70s and 80s, near ideal for this time of the year.. There will still be weak cool shots across the West and Plains but over lower population states. October 24-31: We mentioned the risk going into the weekend was the data could trend colder, and it did, especially since the European model that added a bit of demand. The main reason is colder air out of Canada being able to push across the border, requiring stronger heating demand. This period will be important and warmer or colder trends could be noticed. Shading is temperatures vs normal at 850 mb, about 4500 feet msl. |