(above) Congratulations to Dr Ellen Brooks-Pollock and Professor Matt Keeling who were both recently traded OBEs in the Queen's Birthday Honours list

JUNIPER Consortium Newsletter
June 2021

Dear friends and associates of JUNIPER,

Welcome to this months edition of the JUNIPER consortium's newsletter. Last month was the second in our series of research meetings. The meeting included talks on the use of social contact data for COVID-19 and recent work on understanding trends in the variants of concern in the UK. You can watch talks from this meeting here. Congratulations to JUNIPER members Professor Matt Keeling and Dr Ellen Brooks-Pollock who have been awarded OBEs in the Queen's birthday honours list for their services to Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies during the COVID-19 response.

Events

MONTHLY SEMINAR SERIES AT ISSAC NEWTON INSTITUTE

Speaker: Dr Emma Davis (Big Data Institute, University of Oxford)
Title: An imperfect tool: why is contact tracing so hard to get right?
Abstract: Emerging evidence suggests that contact tracing has had limited success in the UK in reducing the R number across the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate potential pitfalls and areas for improvement by extending an existing branching process contact tracing model, adding diagnostic testing and refining parameter estimates to demonstrate that reporting and adherence are the most important predictors of programme impact. We conclude that well-implemented contact tracing could bring small but potentially important benefits to controlling and preventing outbreaks, providing up to a 15% reduction in R, and reaffirm that contact tracing is not currently appropriate as the sole control measure.
Date: 12th July 12:00pm-1:00pm (BST)
Register here

WEEKLY SEMINAR SERIES

We have a weekly informal seminar on Wednesdays at 16:00-17:00 BST followed by a virtual beer hour. We have upcoming talks by Katrina Lythgoe on how SARs-CoV2 might evolve and Jessica Bridgen on the CoCoNet survey. If you are interested in attending please sign up here. 

Recent Papers & Articles

A special theme issue of Royal Society Phil Trans B on modelling work that shaped the initial Government response to COVID-19 was published at the start of this month. The Special Theme issue is compiled and guest edited by SPI-M scientists including JUNIPER members Drs Ellen Brooks Pollock and Leon Danon at the University of Bristol and Dr. Lorenzo Pellis at the University of Manchester. 15 out of the 20 papers contained in this special issue detail work from JUNIPER members that was presented to the government advisory group SPI-M (Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Modelling) between January and July 2020. Full details of the papers are available here.

Recent preprints on work suggesting the delta variant is emerging as the dominant variant in the UK  and possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics.

We are happy to be working with Plus Magazine to bring the work from consortium members to a wider audience. Check out the full list of articles here. Recent highlights include Going with the flow: are lateral flow tests useful? and The Delta variant: What do we know? .

For a full list of outputs from the consortium, check out our website here​.

Upcoming events

COVID-19 safety in large events three-day virtual study group 13th-15th July ​which forms part of the RAMP continuation work. Find out more including how to register here.

Understanding the Generation Time for COVID-19 is a three-day workshop 28th-30th July which forms part of the RAMP continuation work. Find out more including how to register here. 

Thank you as always for your continued support and interest. 

- JUNIPER consortium

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Contact: c.dangerfield@newton.ac.uk (JUNIPER scientific programme manager)

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(above) Image from Modelling that shaped  the early COVID-19 response in the UK available here