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(above) An early design sketch prior to INI's opening in July 1992.
INI NEWS BULLETIN
July 2020
Dear friends, associates and supporters of INI,
Welcome to the July 2020 edition of our monthly news bulletin. Although the Institute as a physical building has been "dark" since the UK's lockdown measures began at the end of March, this has remained an extremely busy and productive period for INI and its staff.
Below you will find: an update regarding the extremely successful Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics programme - a virtual initiative organised in quick response to the current coronavirus pandemic, two new podcast recordings with mathematical biologist Dr Kit Yates and mathematical epidemiologist Dr Robin Thompson, and a preview of the September follow-on workshop to 2019's "Landscape decision making" programme - which has the possibility to mingle both virtual and physical elements for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis began.
Thanks for your continued interest, stay safe and stay well.
- INI Communications team
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Contact: communications@newton.ac.uk
Mathematical modelling has played an unprecedented role in informing public health policy on the control of the current COVID19 pandemic. Infectious disease modelling groups in the UK and globally have necessarily been working in ‘response’ mode to provide real-time modelling of the pandemic as it unfolds. However, this has left limited time for longer-term thinking about the challenges of understanding the dynamics of this particular pandemic. There is therefore an additional need for experts to discuss, explore and analyse surrounding issues including model assumptions, strategies for surveillance, contact tracing, use of diagnostics, and social distancing. A key aim of this programme is to address this need for longer-term thinking.
Set up at extremely short notice by INI's administrative team and in collaboration with a selection of expert Organisers (including Deirdre Hollingsworth, Julia Gog, Hans Heesterbeek, Valerie Isham, Denis Mollison, Phil O'Neill, Sylvia Richardson, Nigel Shadbolt, Caroline Trotter and Alan Wilson), the "IDP" programme has proven what is possible even during such challenging times for a visitor-based international research centre.
Since launching its first workshop in May, IDP has been a fully virtual programme, which has required great flexibility and initiative from both an organisational and a technical viewpoint. We are pleased to say that all Zoom-based plenary talks that have so far taken place are now available to view on newton.ac.uk and that many of the other lectures and meetings are either available now or will be in the coming weeks (pending speaker permissions). We urge you to view this invaluable archive which has brought together so many mathematicians and statisticians from disparate subfields and in turn offered meaningful support to the Royal Society’s Rapid Assistance in Modelling the Pandemic (RAMP) programme.
One final workshop, "Future Pandemics", remains in the IDP programme and will run from 7-25 September. Recordings will be available after the event, but if you would like to be more closely involved please complete the following "Expression of Interest" form to contact the Organisers.
(below) Screenshots of various IDP talks and meetings from the past few months.
PODCAST(s) OF THE MONTH: two excellent COVID-19 focused episodes now available to listen to.
In episode #22,
of the INI podcast Ciara Dangerfield is joined by Dr Kit Yates to discuss the maths behind the models of COVID-19 that are being used to guide policy of the control of the pandemic. Kit is a senior lecturer at the University of Bath and author of The Mathematics of Life and Death. In particular, if you are interested in our discussions check out Chapter 7 (‘Susceptible, Infective, Removed’) of his book. You can find out more about Kit’s work at his website kityates.com or follow him on twitter @Kit_Yates_Maths.
00:00 - Episode description
01:40 - Introductions
02:35 - The maths behind the COVID-19 pandemic, the SEIR model
09:40 - How to model the transmission process
17:40 - Capturing uncertainty within the models
22:40 - Reducing the reproduction number: responses and policies suggested by the models
25:40 - What is herd immunity?
30:10 - The key challenges facing modellers in this situation
35:40 - Contact details and wrap-up recommendations
38:10 - What can mathematicians do to help?
(below) Dr Kit Yates.
In episode #23 of the INI podcast Ciara Dangerfield is joined by Dr Robin Thompson to learn about how data is being used to inform the mathematical models behind the models of COVID-19. Robin is a Junior Research Fellow in mathematical epidemiology at Christ Church, University of Oxford. Find out more about Robin’s
work here: robin-thompson.co.uk or follow him on twitter @RobinNThompson. If you’re interested in the topics covered check, out Robin’s Oxford Mathematics public lecture on mathematical models of infectious disease outbreaks here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6Hr69JH_wA
00:00 - Episode description
00:50 - Introductions
02:00 - Types and uses of data within COVID-19 models
06:30 - Types of statistical method
09:05 - Issues with the current data
11:14 - How to cope with such deficiencies
15:55 - How to account for uncertainty
17:55 - Is widespread testing important for improving model predictions
22:40 - Explaining “RAMP”
25:30 - Wrap-up recommendations
28:45 - How can mathematicians help with current modelling challenges
31:45 - Contact details
(below) Dr Robin Thompson.
FOLLOW-ON WORKSHOP UPDATE: Integrating quantitative social, ecological and mathematical sciences into landscape decision-making.
In July 2019 the Isaac Newton Institute (INI) Programme Mathematical and statistical challenges in landscape decision-making brought together environmental and mathematical scientists to discuss the issues facing landscape decision-makers and how mathematical and statistical approaches could help. The programme identified key research priorities within four areas: Decision-making under uncertainty, Spatial/temporal scaling, Coupling models to represent interactions within landscape systems and Representing processes in landscape models. It also led to a number of research proposals funded under the UKRI Strategic Priority Fund (SPF) “Landscape Decisions: Toward a new framework for using land assets” mathematical and statistical challenges call.
The aim of this follow-on workshop is to build on this work by exploring how to integrate state-of-the-art social modelling approaches with environmental and mathematical approaches in landscape decision-making. This is vital, as landscapes are complex systems, involving interactions between both natural and human processes. The workshop will also, provide an opportunity to feedback on methodological advances made since the INI programme and match these to the changing needs of stakeholders.
The follow-on workshop "Integrating quantitative social, ecological and mathematical sciences into landscape decision-making" will take place from 7-11 September. Although planning is underway for it to take place virtually (in the same manner as the "IDP" programme described above) there may also be some physical component to the schedule if circumstances allow.
Please see the workshop's overview page for details of how to take part or how to view the talks delivered.
