Yesterday our model predicted four upsets in the MLB, and two of them hit. Given the odds on those bets, 2-4 is a win. We also predicted Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry to win the Zurich Classic, and they pulled through with just enough to get the win. That was a +260 bet. Today is an exciting day in the NBA because the Celtics will look to take a 3-1 lead over the Heat, and the Nuggets and Thunder can each finish off their opponents with a win tonight. Let's do an NBA DFS sample lineup and then go over some more MLB underdogs. - Ben ⏳ Today's read time: ~ 4 minutes NBA DFS Starting 5 🏀 PG: D'Angelo Russell | 32 Fantasy Points Russell has been up and down in this series, including a 23-point outing and a scoreless outing. He was key to the Lakers' win on Saturday, though, so there is good reason to believe he will be featured heavily in tonight's offensive gameplan. The Lakers are still playing for their lives, since a loss will end their season. SG: Trey Murphy | 36 Fantasy Points Murphy can rack up points, threes, or steals in large quantities on any given night. He's not a bad playmaker or rebounder either, but he doesn't have a consistent role on this Pelicans team. He had a great finish to the regular season and a few flashes of greatness in the playoffs so far, so let's see if he can do it facing elimination by the Thunder. SF: Michael Porter Jr. | 36 Fantasy Points Porter Jr. is averaging 22 points and 9 rebounds in this series, both of which are higher than his season averages. He's making his mark on the Nuggets offense, and we can capitalize on it. $6,600 is a pretty low price given his output this series. PF: Aaron Gordon | 35 Fantasy Points The Nuggets' complementary pieces are having a good series, since the Lakers have made Nikola Jokic move the ball. Gordon is burning the Lakers defense with backdoor cuts and easy dunks, which makes him a reliable fantasy option. He also fills it up in the hustle categories. C: Anthony Davis | 52 Fantasy Points Once again, it is necessary for Davis to shine if the Lakers want to win this game and stay alive. Davis came through for us on Saturday, but can he do it again? I think so, even if LA doesn't end up winning. He and Lebron James tend to show up when they need to. We'll see if it's enough to hold off Denver. DFS Budget Picks 🤑 G: Josh Giddey | 29 Fantasy Points After a 21-point, 8-rebound, and 6-assist night, we'd be crazy not to go for Giddey at $5,500. Giddey is often overshadowed by his star teammates, but this guy can affect the game in so many ways and is getting better at doing what the team needs. F: Nikola Jovic | 26 Fantasy Points Jovic was our standout budget pick from Saturday, and it's looking like he'll be just as important to the Heat tonight. Miami will look to even the series score with Boston despite being understaffed. Jovic and Jaime Jaquez Jr. will need to come through at the forward spots. UTIL: Caleb Martin | 25 Fantasy Points Our optimizer is pretty good, but this pick is a little shady to me. The Celtics left Martin open a lot in Game 2, but covered him much better in Game 3, leading to only 5 points from the Heat forward. If you think he's going to bounce back in Game 4, go for it, but I might sub in Jaime Jaquez Jr because he has a higher floor. dfsPro Whiparound: News & Notes 🌪️ MLB Game Lines ⚾ Baltimore Orioles over New York Yankees These teams have both been pretty good this season, but the Orioles being at home probably tips the odds in their favor for our algorithm. They have a 56% chance to win, and that's a -120 bet on DraftKings. Washington Nationals over Miami Marlins On the opposite side of the spectrum, both of these teams have struggled. Vegas likes the Marlins to win, but our model thinks the Nationals will pull it off. You can get that line for +124 on DraftKings. Chicago Cubs over New York Mets The Cubs have a 69% chance of winning, according to our model. That makes the +110 bet great value. Want more from Heavy Sports? Click here to sign up for the latest sports news directly to your inbox. If this email was forwarded to you, you can subscribe here. |