Briefing Notes
Variants
The highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant will soon be dominate in Ontario. Across the province the daily variant cases have been consistently going up since early February when daily testing started. Variants are likely between 30 and 35 per cent of cases now.
On Jan. 20 when the province did their point prevalence study, they found 4.4 per cent of all COVID-19 cases were variants, and now we’re over 30 per cent across the province. This growth is
tracking with what has been seen in other countries.
It is predicted by the Ontario Science Table that in the second week of Mar. that 40 per cent of all cases in Ontario will be variants. Ontario daily cases have flattened out, and we need to mindful of watching to see if curve starts to go back up.
Non-variant cases are continuing to go down, while variant cases are going up, so we are ending up with an overall U shape for all cases.
In Niagara, two weeks ago we had six variant cases and now we have over 60 cases. The per cent of variants of all positive cases was over 30 per cent for a bit last week, and we have seen that go down a little to the high twenties.
Our daily cases have gone down, flattened out, and are now going back up according to a seven day moving average. We are seeing an increase in our non-variant cases on top of our rise of variant cases.
Hospital and ICU admittance was quite low in the summer but, since the second wave, it hasn’t been brought back down to that low level.
The province’s messaging around staying home may not be enough to keep cases under control.
What we’ve seen is that the largest age group for ICU admissions are those between 60 and 79, so vaccines administered first to those 80 years of age and older may not be enough to avoid an increase in ICU pressure in a third wave with the rising number of variants. However, they may help with our deaths, as the largest number there are coming from those in long-term care home and those 80 years old and up, so they will be vaccinated by the time a potential third wave likely comes.
Future
case growth depends heavily on our control of the variants of concerns.
Mass Immunizations
Last week we saw Canada approved the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, so we now have four vaccines approved. We also are now able to stretch out giving second doses to four months, so we will be able to get people protected twice as quickly.
The province has announced that vaccine delivery will increase in the later part of March, and Niagara will be among 26 local public health agencies beginning to offer mass immunization clinics then.
The province’s registration system will launch a week from
today and Niagara’s clinic locations were announced last week. Niagara was also named by the province as one of the 13 hot spots that will be getting additional doses.
In Niagara, we’re currently into the third and last group of vaccinations with the first phase of the provincial roll-out. Niagara Health is beginning limited vaccination of those 80 years old and up, and we are offering a couple of clinics for our indigenous population this week, and finishing up with the remaining retirement homes and senior-specific congregate settings. We are also starting work to deliver vaccines to high-risk congregate settings such as shelters, as well as agriculture settings as there are a few outbreaks there right now.
Compared to other regions, Niagara isn’t really behind
most other regions.
By the end of last week, the vaccines delivered per capital in Niagara were a little above the provincial average, and we were ahead of many of our peers. While we’re still working through a larger group of high risk population, we are keeping pace with the number of vaccines getting into people’s arms.