Welcome to Wonk Week​ - ​it's Monday 24 May

Put a wet and windy May weekend behind you with today’s loaded smörgåsbord of policy research, commentary and news.

This political week promises to be dominated by Dominic Cummings’ appearance at the Health and Social Care and Science and Technology Committees’ joint inquiry into the pandemic. But for those who prefer substance to theatre, Westminster’s finest think-tanks have a whole host of other events to keep you occupied.

In the meantime, here’s Wonk Week.

by Amy Norman and Linus Pardoe

The week that was

World Health Organisation & International Labour Organisation – a world-first study explores the link between long working hours and ill health, specifically heart disease and stroke. Around 488 million people worldwide worked more than 55 hours per week in 2016, with an estimated 745,000 deaths attributable to long working hours. Most of those deaths were amongst 60-79-year-olds, whilst 72% were men. The WHO says working over 55 hours a week is a “serious health hazard”, calling on governments to bring in laws to protect workers.

Onward – headline measures show the UK is a global leader for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), well above OECD FDI-GDP averages. Onward’s latest report argue that is a bit misleading: London is a sponge for FDI whilst other parts of the country are missing out. Disaggregated data (that which is available, anyway) show between 1997 and 2016, the number of foreign investments made in the capital more than tripled but fell by 15% across the rest of the country. South Korean-style locally targeted tax incentives for FDIs are one of Onward’s answers.

Resolution Foundation and Centre for Economic Performance – chocks away for a new two-year collaboration between the RF and CEP – the Economy 2030 Inquiry – which will issue a “book-length final report” in 2023, just before what some wonks believe will be the next general election. A new briefing launches the Inquiry, spelling out (essentially) the UK’s Ghosts of Economic Past, Present, and Future. The spectre of Italy looms large and how to avoid an Italian Job will be a focus for the Inquiry. The Independent’s Ben Chu (who scores 2/2 in Wonk Week) has more on Italy in this thread. 

Department for Education – there’s nothing quite like a Tuesday-night publication of skills legislation to really get us wonks going. Of the many awaited bills to come from the Queen’s Speech, the Skills and Post-16 Education Bill is one that us SMFers have had a particularly keen eye on. Most notably: two weeks ago, our very own Aveek Bhattacharya warned that the devil would be in the detail on key headline policies, such as the Lifelong Loan Entitlement; last week, the government punted on how the LLE will work, with plans to flesh it out in secondary legislation. So while you’re waiting, do catch up on the rest of the Bill with a punchy rundown from David Kernohan and a technical summary from Julia Belgutay.

New Economics Foundation – we hear plenty about the “attention economy” and targeted advertising, especially its impact on young people, but far less about how kids are affected. That is now coming under the microscope with legal challenges against YouTube and TikTok’s alleged failure to get the necessary consent for children to use their platforms. NEF dig into the broader context of “surveillance advertising” and what it calls an “arms race for our children’s attention” in a new report, highlighting concerns over the scale of data collection, profiling and distribution of children’s personal data. Even if surveillance advertising isn’t going to be outlawed, the NEF says new legislation could impose a duty of care on tech companies and advertisers to do no harm.

National Audit Office – Wonk Week has been bringing you a steady stream of reports hoping to find some lessons learned from the pandemic. The NAO is next out to bat, and whilst its new report doesn’t knock anything out the park, it is somewhat critical of how the Government has collected and utilised data during the pandemic and it’s preparedness. The DfE, for example, only had a playbook for flood disruption. But there is praise for the way the government machine deployed large-scale spending at pace to cushion the blow to health and the economy, and the role private-public partnerships have played.

Independent Commission for Aid Impact – one item on the COVID policy buffet which the NAO don’t tuck into is UK aid spending which, as new ICAI analysis explores, had to be slashed by almost £3bn in a matter of days due to the sudden economic contraction from COVID. Unsurprisingly, that meant some of the biggest aid programmes – in the most vulnerable places – took a big hit. As it happens, the cuts ended up being bigger than were needed (to the tune of an extra £720m) given they were based on an overly pessimistic forecast, which the Government chose not to backtrack on.

Institute for Employment Studies – little research attention has been given to how the UK’s 1.8m single parents have coped working and caring for their children during the pandemic – until now. This new report from IES shines a spotlight on non-essential workers, who were likely to face the greatest challenges with the “impossible balancing act” of working from home (or job seeking) alongside school closures, as one of their interview participants describes it. The report calls for a whole host of sensible measures to improve access to childcare, flexible working, and back-to-work training and support.

Bright Blue – a new report from BB’s tax reform project calls for an end to Council Tax and Stamp Duty, replacing it with a new Annual Proportional Property Tax (APPT). The new tax would be based on the value of the home (exempt under £50,000) with annual revaluations through statistical modelling (and a three-five-year window to average things out). Crucially, BB go in for fiscal devolution, allowing local authorities to set their own APPT rates on top of the 0.11% national rate. To cover Council Tax, that is estimated to be 0.51%. The effect? See the maps on P70-74: Londoners would end up paying more tax on their home, with swathes of the Midlands and North experiencing a cut.

Education Policy Institute – we interrupt your regularly scheduled programming of attainment gap research to bring you… the pay gap. In their new report, EPI warn that although teacher recruitment has picked up over the last year, keeping hold of those teachers is all but promised, particularly as the wider labour market starts to recover. Central to hanging onto teachers will be closing local pay gaps between teaching and non-teaching jobs, which means reforming teacher pay policy to be more responsive to local labour markets.

Social Market Foundation – “inequality of opportunity is the challenge of our time” – that’s the starting gun for a new SMF project spearheaded by Claire Coutinho MP and David Johnston MP which will look to identify causes of – and solutions to – Britain’s Opportunity Gap. Stephen Bush has a good primer on the political context for our project in the New Statesman (whose cover story this week also touches on many of the same themes). Coutinho and Johnston share their vision for a social mobility revolution in The Telegraph.

Social Mobility Commission – staying on social mobility, a new report from the SMC doesn’t hold back on elitism in the civil service. A few key stats: just 18% of senior civil servants are from working class or low socio-economic backgrounds (SEB); 12% of HMT staff are from a low SEB; 22% of London-based civil servants are from low SEB, compared with 40%+ in Wales, East Mids, North West, West Mids and North East. The report’s main author, the excellent Sam Freidman, has an excellent write up here, noting the complex world of rules, norms, job opportunities civil servants have to navigate to progress. More from the BBC too.

Our Scottish Future – grab some strong coffee for this ‘morning after poll’ from the Scottish election. The findings carve out a notable group of voters that counter the binary rhetoric of pro-union or pro-independence. Half of ‘Middle Scotland’ voters backed the SNP, not because they necessarily support a referendum, but because they believe the party offers leadership and vision. For more, do read this sobering blog from Kelly Shuttleworth on the legal and political realities of what the path to the EU could look like for an independent Scotland.  

London School of Economics – last, but by no means least, (doctoral) caps off to the SMF’s brilliant Chief Economist, Aveek Bhattacharya, on the publication of his PhD thesis. Wonks and wider have long debated choice in public services – whether it produces better outcomes and whether we even value it – but how do we measure its intrinsic value? In this whopper of a study, Aveek  develops a novel framework to measure the subjective welfare, freedom, and autonomy of parents choosing a secondary school for their children in England (more school choice) and Scotland (less school choice) comparatively. Spoiler alert: choice can be enjoyable, but the burden of research, information and rejected applications causes more stress and anxiety than it’s worth, unless policymakers intervene.

Worth a read

All change, please – British politics is realigning. Readers of wonk week might lose their eyeballs in the backs of their head if we offer up another analysis of that realignment and levelling up, but this essay from Will Jennings, Lawrence McKay and Gerry Stoker is surgical in its analysis. They say for the Conservatives, a perception of success, “spectacle”, and plan to hold together its voter coalition will be key to levelling up; Labour, meanwhile, cannot be sure that Conservative “trespassing” on its home territory will “collapse under its own contractions” – a new mission is needed.

Systemic sleaze? – WhatsApp lobbying, a refurbished flat, and former PM privileges are, disturbingly, just the latest in string of ‘sleazy’ scandals that occur in politics. While it is right to criticise the individual politicians for such actions, in this piece for politics.co.uk, Edward Hall warns that we also need to question the integrity and potential hypocrisy of our political institutions too. What happens when the principles and values of society aren’t reflected in our political system?

In defence of bribes – some Americans are getting paid to get vaccinated. Polling reported by the NYT has recently found $100 would make 34% of people more likely to go for a jab; you can even win a $1 million in Ohio. All that has David Freedman at The Atlantic thinking: should we be less sceptical of incentives?

Missing: the Imperial Treasury – whilst the UK might have been splashing the dosh at record levels, Will Davies reflects on the continued retreat of the Imperial Treasury – which dominated government between 1997–2019 – with DCMS and MHCLG taking on star roles under the Johnson Government. Davies says Labour needs to shed its Treasury legacy too.

Social care – wonks are well familiar with the multitude of issues facing the social care sector. To throw another in the mix, Silvia Miele looks at how post-Brexit immigration rules could hit the care sector given its reliance on EU migrants and high turnover rates, which in 2019/20 reached 30.4%.

Vox on vax – a brilliant read on the triumph of mRNA and adenovirus vaccines – two of the most promising methods of vaccine production which have finally experienced major breakthroughs in the fight against COVID – and the case for mega government-private sector partnerships to invest in vaccine infrastructure ahead of the next (yes) pandemic. A $20bn proposal to fight future biological nightmares – the so-called “10+10 over 10” - has been gaining traction in the US.

Work smarter not harder - …a wise engineer once said nearly a century ago. That’s the lesson from this new blog from the TBI on the next phase of the vaccine rollout in the face of the new variant. Should we be redirecting vaccines to areas that could be more exposed? Do give (former SMF chief) Ian Mulheirn’s Twitter a scroll for a wonk’s dream thread – we’re talking maps and charts. Nice to see a former colleague keeping busy.

TikTok, TikTok – your Wonk Week authors may still be a safe distance below the age of 30 but even we confess a total failure to grasp the breakneck speed at which social media is changing. A whopping 54% of young Americans now want to be a social media influencer; 23% already think they are. Barrett Swanson embarks on an almost anthropological study of influencer culture and the new ‘passion economy’, LA’s influencer houses and the resulting anxiety caused by pursuing 15 seconds of perfection.

Big Tech Bourgeoisie – round off your Monday morning with some light reading on Nikhil Venkatesh’s Marxist approach to surveillance capitalism. This piece draws on Marx’s three components of alienation, exploitation, and accumulation to draw parallels between workers selling their labour to meet their material needs, and users voluntarily ‘selling’ their data to participate in modern work and social life. If that makes you feel uneasy, check out Venkatesh’s tips for resisting the Big Tech Bourgeoisie.

The week ahead

Monday

Begin your week with Onward, who host a panel event looking at sustainable finance; Bright Blue and British Future host a half-day conference on next steps for UK immigration policy, with a keynote from the Home Secretary; UCL’s Constitution Unit have a virtual event on ministerial standards; Marcus Rashford’s child food poverty petition is debated in Parliament, whilst the Finance Bill is back in the Commons; and keep an eye out for new local income deprivation stats,

Tuesday

In Parliament, the Telecoms Bill returns and there are committee sessions on prison education, child mental health and the impact of COVID-19 on parents and families; the Health Foundation hosts Damien Green MP and Liz Kendall MP to ask can politicians “get social care done”; and the latest UK public sector finances update is issued.

Wednesday

Plenty over events to fill your diary, including: the Bennett Institute on big tech regulation; the Learning and Work Foundation ask what local areas can do to support a skills and jobs-led recovery; Demos looks at solutions for creating workplace fairness; and the Resolution Foundation host Diane Coyle, John Van Reenan and Paul Mizen to talk fixing Britain’s productivity crisis. All of that is to distract from Dominic Cummings’ parliamentary appearance at the joint committee inquiry into COVID-19 lessons; there’s also potentially big news for hedgehogs as the Environment Bill returns to the Commons; and finally, look out for new regional GDP data.

Thursday

Policy Exchange hosts the Transport Secretary for a keynote speech; Centre for Cities launch the outgoing Industrial Council Strategy’s latest research on (over)centralisation; in Parliament, the Treasury Committee hears from HMT’s Permanent Secretary as part of its Greensill Inquiry, whilst MPs debate the Government’s Obesity Strategy; big day for farming as the annual value of agriculture stats are published, as well as latest NEET, gambling, and immigration stats, plus new qualitative evidence from the NHS staff survey.

Friday

Join Demos for the second time this week for a panel on its research into public attitudes to responsible tech; there’s new experimental trade data for 2008-2019 released, as well as the alcohol bulletin for the UK’s most recent lockdown; and Ofcom publishes research on how we consume news in the UK.

That's all for this week. If you want to share a report or a piece of commentary which caught your eye, please do get in touch via enquiries@smf.co.uk. And why not forward this email to a colleague? If you're not currently on our mailing list, it's easy to join - just follow this link.

As ever, thanks for reading and have a good week.

Amy Norman and Linus Pardoe